Is it possible that Nigeria may move to take Sao Tome temporarily under its wing as a protectorate?
Update: A well-known journalist for a major news organization has explained privately that Dimka was quoted on the resignation of Mateus Meira Rita because he offered to translate the Portuguese-language document in which the presidency issued the news into English for the press. The only reason Dimka was quoted was because he translated the coument for Reuters, our friend said.
That is the question raised by the unusual statement offered to the media this past Saturday by Nigerian Sam Dimka, ostensibly the spokesman for the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Authority but somehow, in this case, also the spokesman for President Fradique de Menezes.
It would not be unusual in terms of African or world history for one very large nation (Nigeria has 130 million people) to protect its interests in a valuable resource by assuming temporary control of a far smaller nation (Sao Tome has 170,000). In this case, however, while Sao Tome has no army to speak of, neither has Nigeria moved any troops into Sao Tome's capital.
Sao Tome Foreign Minister Mateus Meira Rita
Joe Shea/The American Reporter
In June 2003, the government was toppled by 20 soldiers led by a Sao Tome Army sergeant angry that he and his men had not been paid. The army's strength then stood at 200, and the sergeant confined them to their barracks for a few days before returning power to the usual suspects. Meanwhile, talk of a coup is in the air again on the Raging Bull ERHE message board.
There is little question that Nigeria could take power in Sao Tome at the drop of a hat, even with storms of international protest thundering overhead. And the dispatch of Sam Dimka, whom most had believed to be a minor figure in the awards process, was not seen as unusual.
Then, however, Dimka reported to Raging Bull ERHE poster hurricaneoffor - a moniker adopted by the former marvol10 aka orangeandwhite0 that his talks with Sao Tome's dysfunctional leadership had "smoothed things over."
Problems seemed to erupt immediately after that, however, when President Fradique de Menezes reportedly sacked Mateus Maria Rita, his still-serving foreign affairs minister, from his post as a member of the National Petroleum Council Saturday before last, and then fired his petroleum advisor and potential presidential rival, Patrice Trovoada, this past Saturday. Then came Dimka's announcement.
It was a little like Scott Mclellan, President Bush's press secretary, announcing that Prime Minister Ayad Allawi had fired his oil expert. If that had happened, we'd say, well, we run the country, after all; they were just acknowledging that fact.
Was Sao Tome's President De Menezes acknowledging that Nigeria plays the same role in the Gulf of Guinea?
There is no question that the repeated delays and lack of explanations has embarrassed Nigeria, a world player and member of OPEC, making it seem more like a Third World backwater than one of the world's leading oil producers.
There is also the problem, for Nigeria, that since the treaty over the Joint Development Zone was adopted, the Sao Tome parliament has enacted several measures that burden the decision-mmaking process on its side, while Nigeria's process is essentially unchanged.
Meanwhile, though, it is Nigeria that gets its name dragged through the mud as round after round of delays is greeted with catcalls and jeers - and share price downdrafts - by frustrated, angry and impatient investors. That impatience has already led to several thoughtful apologies and pleas for patience from the JDA, but not to awards.
Nigeria can't undo the laws of a sovereign nation like Sao Tome, but it can, if it should wish to do so by force, suspend its parliament and direct Sao Tome's immediate future.
Monday, May 09, 2005
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2 comments:
Come on! Nigeria isn't going to invade anywhere. Nigeria produces 2.5m b/d already. The JDZ was dreamt up as a political convenience in 2001 to show Nigeria was a good neighbour while its border dispute with Cameroon was going through the International Court of Justice. It may pain ERHC shareholders to hear it, but the whole JDZ is more a political and diplomatic issue for Nigeria than oil or money. Yes, Nigeria was furious with Trovoada, because they have supported him over many years. And they shed few tears for his departure. But it was Menezes who fired him, by presidential decree - not Sam Dimka, who is just a spokesman. And Rita resigned from the JMC - he was not fired. Moreover, he stays as Menezes' chief of staff. This is a complicated part of the world. Better not to guess what you dont know.
Joe,
I hope you end up in Federal prison for the illegal postings you put in your blog.
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