Trading Updates: Another Day Of JMC Talks Is Underway As Price Unravels; Monday Declared A Holiday In Nigeria, Making Double Probability 3-Day Weekend

Yet another day of talks between delegations from Sao Tome and Principe and Nigeria to their Joint Ministerial Council is underway, and traders so far have not moved the $0.702 x $0.702 Bid and Ask.

An update from regular poster ArtK4K, a Miami psycholgist, says he called the Nigeria-Sao Tome Joint Development Authority's offics in Abuja and was told that the meeting got started at 1pm Abuja time, which is 8am EDT in New York.

Another poster was told the JDA would issue a press release today.

Update, 4:15pm EDT, 5/26/05: We were wrong about the last-minute buying; rather oddly, between 3:50 and 4:00 there were 12 trades, with 22,000 Buys and 43,000 Sells, but the Sells did not take the Bid or the Ask down, and the final purchase of 2,500 shares that followed a 40,000 burst of six Sells bumped the price to $0.665. The Buys vs. Sells for the day tell a different story. While they often seemed in the early afternoon as though they might tie, by late in the day selling overtook the issue and ended up ahead by 234,000 shares. For the day, there were 729,680 Buys and 963,627 Sells, with 53,500 unidentified shares in 337 trades.

Update, 4:08pm EDT, 5/26/05: I expect a strong opening tomorrow, and I'm delighted that despite the intense uncertainty and indeed, anxiety, this awards process has generated for so many people, we lost only $0.037 cents. That translated to $4,552.48 for the ERHC On The Move portfolio of 123,040 shares purchased at an average of $0.4394. It just goes to show you that we have nothing to fear from the truth.

Update, 4pm EDT, 5/26/05: We close at $0.665. Looking at ADVFN on its 15-minute delay, I see a splurge of buying of some 80,500 shares in 14 trades without a single sell, but that the Buy-Sell margin is greater than ever for the day, at around 212,000 shares favoring the Sell side. I need to see the last 15 minutes to get the whole picture, though, because there was a lot of buying at the end.

Update, 3:59pm EDT, 5/26/05: Volume jumps to 1,739,800 and the price goes to $0.665, with Bid and Ask unmoved.

Update, 3:57pm EDT, 5/26/05: The volume leaps 10K to 1,719,300 and it looks like we may close at $0.665.

Update, 3:54pm EDT, 5/26/05: Now the price and the Bid is $0.66, and the volume 1,709,300.

Update, 3:53pm EDT, 5/26/05: We're at $0.6510 now but the Bid has gone to $0.655 and the Ask to $0.665 on 1,709,300 shares of volume.

Update, 3:48pm EDT, 5/26/05: Just 11 minutes to go and the price is $0.645, despite rallies in oil prices and on both the4 Nadaq (+20) and the DJIA (+80). The Bid is better at $0.65 and the Ask has improved to $0.655. It may yet move up a few cents.

Update, 3:46pm EDT, 5/26/05: Last-minute posts are frequently a pumper's scam to get out higher after day-trading at a bad price. This one from our Comments section sounds like one, but you make up your own minds:

This meeting is it and it will be finalised this evening. They started late today and there are many items on the agenda, as you smart and on the ball investors should be aware of. Please do not call Senor Augusto at the UN Mission any more. He has the same information that many of you have and nothing more. The official news will come from the JDA. You've waited this long you can wait another day or two. If not, please sell your shares for whatever company you are invested in now.

Obrigado

Update, 3:40pm EDT, 5/26/05: We're climbing a bit, to $0.655, the Ask, and so is the Bid, to $0.646, but slips back a tenth-cent to $0.646. Volume is closing in on 1,.7 million, now at 1,682,100 shares.

Update, 3:34pm EDT, 5/26/05: Someone on RB tipped LLLI this morning, and that's up $0.75 to $4.01 now. ERHE, meanshile, is at $0.65 on 1,672,100 shares.

Update, 3:30pm EDT, 5/26/05: The Bid is up to $0.645, and the Ask stays at $0.65 as volume climbs to 1,637,100 shares. It doesn't make sense to me that they would announce awards late at night, but it would not be terribly unusual, either. I just don't think so.

Update, 3:27pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price rises a cent to $0.65, while the Bid lingers at $0.64 and volume hits 1,624,600 shares. By the way, the 3:16pm tip and the 3:25pm tip are from different people.

Update, 3:25pm EDT, 5/26/05: A last-minute Update from Markvol10:

****JMC MEETING UPDATE***Just called Sam's cell phone. A lady answered. I asked to speak with Sam and she told me that he had just been called into the JMC meeting. It's 8:00 pm there right now and she said they will be meeting until 9;30-10pm. I asked her if meeting was going well and she said that everything seemed very positive. She told me to call Sam in 2 hours. The wait continues although it seems like real progress is being made and things are moving towards a conclusion.

Update, 3:20pm EDT, 5/26/05: Welcome, first-time poster!

Update, 3:16pm EDT, 5/26/05: A nice Surge develops with volume going to 1,601,600 as a trusted poster informs me that his most reliable source in Nigeria assures him that at whatever time, there will be an awards announcement from the Joint Development Authority - so you heard it here third-hand, presuming his source also heard it. The price is $0.64, the Bid, and the Ask is $0.645.

Update, 3:07pm EDT, 5/26/05: A 37K jump in volume brings the price from $0.64 to $0.642, and volume to 1,548,000 shares. Eight minutes to the 3:15 Surge.

Update, 2:59pm EDT, 5/26/05: Sellers are now increasing their lead over buyers, with some 811,000 Sells topping 600,00 Buys and 53,500 shares unidentified in 289 trades recorded by ADVFN at 2:43. The price is $0.642 and current volume is 1,513,000 shares.

Update, 2:56pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.645, and the Bid has improved to $0.64 as we stand 20 minutes from the 3:15 Surge. The volume is 1,507.500 shares. There may not be a lot of late buying today unless news breaks soon.

Update, 2:53pm EDT, 5/26/05: We just hit 1,500,000 shares, with the Bid lower at $0.635 and the Ask at $0.645. Looks like there will be no news forthcoming today, and perhaps another day of meetings tomorrow.

Update, 2:44pm EDT, 5/26/05: Investor's Hub, which had captured some of the better posters from Raging Bull, seems to have lost them now. The Raging Bull madness goes on and on. Let's just hope that no newbie stops there first.

Update, 2:38pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.64 once more, the Bid, and the Ask is lower at $0.645 as volume reaches 1,460,500 shares on slow trading.

Update, 2:31pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price has improved to $0.652, the Ask, while the Bid is $0.645. Volume has reached 1,321,400.

Update, 1:58pm EDT, 5/26/05: The coming three-day weekends in Abuja and the United States gives me great confidence that an announcement of awards will come late Friday or on Saturday, and if not then, at a ceremonial event on Monday. The Bid and Ask are $0.65 x $0.655, and volume is 1,410,100 shares.

Update, 1:52pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.65, and volume is 1,401,100. The Bid has risen to $0.65.

Update, 1:40pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price slips to $0.645, while the Bid rises to $0.645 and the Ask slips to $0.655 on volume of 1,389,600 shares.

Update, 1:35pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price slips to $0.65, while the Bid stays at $0.64 and the Ask slips to $0.655 on volume of 1,388,600 shares.

Update, 1:33pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price has risen two cents to $0.66 on volume of 1,387,800 shares, and falls back to $0.655. The Ask stays at $0.66.

Update, 1:25pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.64, the Bid, and there is now a two-cent gap with the Ask at $0.66. Volume is approaching 1.4 million, now at 1,384,600 shares.

Update, 1:23pm EDT, 5/26/05: Nigeria's president has declared a public holiday for Monday, May 30, creating the rare combination of a three-day weekend both there and in the United States. Virtually every large one-day gain in ERHE share price has come on a three-day weekend. This would seem to virtually ensure that the awards will be announced on Monday, which Nigeria has dubbed "Democracy Day:

FG declares Monday Public Holiday
2005-05-25 09:09:55

The Federal Government has declared Monday, May 30, 2005, a Public Holiday to commemorate democracy day.

This was announced by the Internal Affairs Minister, Iyorchia Ayu.

Update, 1:06pm EDT, 5/26/05: The Bid falls back to $0.64, while the Ask stays at $0.66. We're off $0.052, or 7.41 percent now, on improving volume of 1,381,100 shares.

Update, 1:02pm EDT, 5/26/05: The Bid improves to $0.65 as the lunch hour ends. We await the 3:15 Surge. Volume is unchanged.

Update, 12:58pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price has improved to $0.65 and the Ask is better at $0.66, but the Bid stays at $0.64. The volume stands at 1,376,100 shares.

Update, 12:53pm EDT, 5/26/05: Some pumper who can't spell Botswana has a rosy message for us in the Comments section. The errors and ampersand spell SwingingK:

Joe,

I think you will be very happy with what was accomplished in the meetings. It will open a new era in Prosperity for the Sao Tomeans, & give the world a much needed Natural Resource.

Batswanna

Update, 12:45pm EDT, 5/26/05: Now we're at the Bid, $0.64, and the Ask is lower at $0.65. Volume has reached 1,365,800 shares, and Abuja's silence continues. When we get our money, they'll get theirs.

Update, 12:40pm EDT, 5/26/05: The Bid has fallen to $0.64 after no news emerged from Abuja. The Ask is at $0.655, and the current price is $0.65. Volume has reached 1,354,800 shares.

Update, 12:33pm EDT, 5/26/05: Now they knows how we feel. Nigeria is getting the hold-up act from Switzerland, where the Supreme Court recently ruled the Swiss government should immediately return $458 million in funds looted by late dictator Gen. Sani Abacha. Nigeria, meanwhile, is holding up payment of the Block 1 share owed to Sao Tome, some $49 million - less its loan of $44 million. Here's a couple of grafs from the Vanguard story:

Swiss govt aborts deal on $458m Abacha loot
Posted to the Web: Thursday, May 26, 2005

PARIS -— Switzerland has halted a deal to hand back $458 million stolen by the late General Sani Abacha and hidden in Swiss banks while it seeks to expel Nigerian illegal immigrants, an outraged President Olusegun Obasanjo said yesterday.

President Obasanjo, who is on a visit to Paris, accused Switzerland of acting illegally in side-stepping a ruling from its own Supreme Court, which in February ordered that the funds be returned and demanded that the money be immediately returned.

“I must express deepest disappointment and dismay with the Swiss authorities who continue to hold onto Nigeria’s legitimate funds, covertly looted and kept in their banks,” he told an audience of dignitaries at the UNESCO headquarters in Paris, according to his spokeswoman, Mrs Remi Oyo.

Update, 12:27pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.66, the Bid is $0.665, with the Ask at $0.665. Volume is now over 1,329,800.

Update, 12:20pm EDT, 5/26/05: Buys leads Sells 63,250 to 11,500 in the past 39 minutes, per ADVFN's 15-minute delay.

Update, 12:20pm EDT, 5/26/05: The Bid has dipped to $0.65, and the Ask to $0.665, likely on the lack of news at 5pm Abuja time. The price is $0.66, and volume stands at 1,281,400, moving pretty slowly.

Update, 12:17pm EDT, 5/26/05: The gap between Buys and Sells has steadily fallen, from 180K to 169K to 127K now, and the last 41 trades reported on ADVFN still show Buys leading Sells by 29 to 12. ADVFN has a 15-minute delay.

Update, 12:12pm EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.66, and volume is 1,276,400. In Iraq, Operation Thunder is about to get underway. It will encircle Baghdad and work inward to root out insurgents.

Update, 12:07pm EDT, 5/26/05: We're looking better now at $0.67, with the Bid at $0.66 and the volume uop 47K to 1,273,800. At 11:39 on ADVFN's 15-minute delay, the Buy-Sell gap had narrowed and the last seven trades were Buys. Oops - the price has slipped to $0.66. No news from Abuja.

Update, 11:50am EDT, 5/26/05: The volume has pretty much come to a halt as investors wait to see whether the JDA will issue a promised press release or the Joint Ministerial Council meeting will come to an end with - or without - awards being announced. Any announcement would likely have to wait until Friday or Monday, however, as Presdent Obansanjo is not in Nigeria today.

Update, 11:44am EDT, 5/26/05: GEECF has reversed course by 25 percent. It was at $0.62 earlier and is now at $0.40, down $0.15 from the open, on 178,000 shares of volume, and there is an $0.11 gap.

Update, 11:39am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.655, the Ask, while the Bid lingers at $0.651. Volume has climbed to 1,206,300, with trading very quiet now. There were 223 trades at 11:17, and Buys lagged Sells by 160,000 shares, with 53,500 unidentified.

Update, 11:36am EDT, 5/26/05: The President is making an important policy statement on Israeli-Palestinian relations. We think a significant breakthrough is near. He says "Now we have reached a moment of hope."

Update, 11:32am EDT, 5/26/05: Checking in with the London desk, I note that that EEL has moved up after yesterday's decline. After a block of 1.2 million shares traded at 1.17 pounds yesterday, the price fell to $1.15, and is now back up to 1.20. Maybe Patrice Trovoada has made some headway. ERHE's price has improved to $0.665.

Update, 11:30am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is stuck at $0.655, and so is volume, and the Bid and Ask remain at $0.65 x $0.655.

Update, 11:24am EDT, 5/26/05: Volume has kicked over 1.2 million to 1,200,600. Price, Bid and Ask are unchanged. It's now 4:22 in Abuja, and the close of business draws near. Will the JDA issue a press release, as promised? Who knows?

Update, 11:21am EDT, 5/26/05: Buys lead Sells 29 to 12 in the last 41 trades at 11am EDT.

Update, 11:17am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.65, the Bid, and the Ask is $0.655. Volume has reached 1,198,600 shares, a good showing on any day.

Update, 11:11am EDT, 5/26/05: One thing we can conclude from the talks going into a third day is that no one came to them ready to give up their position. That was reinforced by the Tanko and de Carvalho comments as well. But knowing what is at stake for both nations and the probable consequences of failure, it seems hard to believe that we would get another non-result this week.

Update, 11:09am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.65, the Bid, with the Ask now $0.655. Volume is 1,185,600 shares. Good discussion our Comments section on the possibility of awarding undisputed blocks.

Update, 11:05am EDT, 5/26/05: With 211 trades as of 10:47, the last 41 were 3:1 Buys to Sells, according to ADVFN. Sells still dominate over the day, however.

Update, 11am EDT, 5/26/05: The price has slipped to $0.655, the Ask, with the Bid at $0.651 and volume up to 1,170,600 shares.

Update, 10:55am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is unchanged at $0.66, with volume now 1,165,600 shares.

Update, 10:50am EDT, 5/26/05: The JMC meeting is likely to take a break any minute now, after two hours of non-stop dialogue. All indicators but volume are unchanged. Volume is 1,156,600 shares.

Update, 10:48am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.66 again, with the Bid and Ask unchanged at $0.655 x $0.66. Volume is 1,150,600.

Update, 10:46am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.655, with all else unchanged. If news does come and it's positive, there could be an extremely sharp upturn today.

Update, 10:44am EDT, 5/26/05: The Bid has fallen to $0.655 and the Ask is lower at $0.66, the current price, as volume rises once more to 1,143,100 shares.

Update, 10:42am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.66 as volume rises to 1,138,100 shares. The Bid and Ask are $0.66 x $0.665.

Update, 10:37am EDT, 5/26/05: By 10:22am EDT this morning, there were a whopping 182 trades, with 378,305 Buys and 572,320 Sells and 53,500 undidentified shares. These are ADVFN's numbers, delayed 15 minutes .<

Update, 10:35am EDT, 5/26/05: The price has come back to $0.665, the Ask, with the Bid at $0.66. Volume is a great 1,069,600 shares. Lots of folks picked up cheap shares on the way back up.

Update, 10:25am EDT, 5/26/05: Money.net has crashed again.

Update, 10:21am EDT, 5/26/05: You blink and it's gone. The price has surged back to $0.655, the Bid, and the Ask is now $0.66 as volume hits 992,426 shares.

Update, 10:17am EDT, 5/26/05: Volume is 961,725 with the price still at $0.645. the Ask, and the Bid a half-cent lower at $0.64. Feels like the market will rest for a breather here. I'll make coffee.

Update, 10:15am EDT, 5/26/05: Just 45 minutes into the day and we're closing in on a million shares traded, one of the heaviest days of volume in recent mwemory. The price is $0.645, the Ask, and the Bid is $0.64.

Update, 10:13am EDT, 5/26/05: We're back at $0.64 and the Ask is $0.645. Volume is 941,225.

Update, 10:11am EDT, 5/26/05: Now we're bouncing off the bottom, at $0.632, with the Bid $0.635 and the Ask $0.64. Volume slowing, finally, at 930,525.

Update, 10:11am EDT, 5/26/05: We're at $0.63 now, the Ask, with the Bid better at $0.625. Volume is 913,050 shares.

Update, 10:09am EDT, 5/26/05: Now the price is $0.625 and the Bid is $0.621, with volume at 810,982 and the Ask $0.625. Traders are headed for the exits. We're sticking around.

Update, 10:05am EDT, 5/26/05: Slipping to $0.63 now as volume hits 744,482, promising a 2 million-share day or better. Bid and Ask are $0.64 x $0.635. The pattern has always been to have a sharp selloff before the high of the year is reached.

Update, 10:03am EDT, 5/26/05: We hit $0.64, off $0.062, and the Bid and Ask are lower at $0.64 x $0.645. Looks like we're headed to a good solid loss. No word from the JDA, of course.

Update, 10am EDT, 5/26/05: The price is $0.65 again, as volume hits 628,832. Bid and Ask are $0.65 x $0.66. It looks like another run at the low of the day. By the first 69 trades at 9:42am, Buys lagged Sells by 1:2.

Update, 9:51am EDT, 5/26/05: Yesterday's volume at this time was 77,000. Now it's 591,332 and we're off $0.047 at $0.655, the Bid, with the Ask at $0.66. The Buy-Sell ratio at the opening was 1:1, but the unidentified shares traded were as high as both in the first 160,000 or so. There were lots of Buys.

Update, 9:51am EDT, 5/26/05: The sellers have made their statement. The price is $0.655, the new Bid, and the Ask stays at $0.66. Volume is 546,832.

Update, 9:48am EDT, 5/26/05: We're clawing back to $0.655. Volume is a very healthy 455,332 and the Ask has risen to $0.66.

Update, 9:46am EDT, 5/26/05: It looks for the moment as though $0.65, the day's low, will hold, as the Bid rises again to $0.651, the current price.

Update, 9:44am EDT, 5/26/05: Volume is now 300K in the first 15 minutes, or at least 297,832, and the Bid is $0.65, the price, and the Ask is $0.655.

Update, 9:42am EDT, 5/26/05: We're blowing through the stops now, at $0.65, with the Bid $0.651 and the Ask $0.655. Volume is 287,832, so this qualifies as a shake, if not a selloff.

Update, 9:39am EDT, 5/26/05: We're at $0.665 now, off $0.042, with the Bid and Ask both lower at $0.66 x $0.666. Volume is a brisk 253,142 shares.

Update, 9:38am EDT, 5/26/05: We are sharply off this morning and look headed for a good dive. With 181,422 shares traded in the first seven minutes, the price is $0.67, the Ask, and the Bid is $0.665.

Money.net was not working, so I apologize for the two earlier posts when I thought it was.

Update, 9:32am EDT, 5/26/05: Momentarily, at least, the Bid is higher than the Ask, at $0.702 x $0.70. There is no volume.

Update, 9:26am EDT, 5/26/05: No change in the Bid and Ask as the opening bell draws near. Yesterday's close was $0.702, and that is the opening Bid and Ask at this time - but likely to change in a few minutes.