ERHC On The Move came up with a post-awards target of $1.28 some time ago, long before all the turmoil erupted, and brighter prospects for a while raised that target first to $1.78 and later to a possible $3.00. Now, regardless of the outcome of awards, we feel rangebound by the infighting that has gone before, so it can be said - as far as we see it - that Mongo, monkeytrots and the other bashers have won.
There is new information we cannot disclose that may point to a connection between one of our partners in the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone and accumulation of ERHC Energy shares at this deeply discounted price. The information is tenuous at best, and should not be relied upon, but it indicates that an executive of one of those companies may in fact be Mongo and may have accumulated as much as 12 million shares, far below any reporting threshhold.
The rumored accumulation by several Raymond James Financial clients of a total of 42 million shares could well be connected to a buyout offer that is hinged on the awards process Mongo and fellow bashers are trying so desperately to diminish. It could explain why the price of our partners' shares have been rising counter to oil prices in the past week, while ours has fallen.
More confirmation from the Secretary of the JDA, this from Anonymous - our friend Markvol10- in our Comments section:
**********UPDATE**************
Just spoke with Secretary of JDA. I asked him if he could confirm Obansanjo was meeting with Menenzes tomorrow and he said they are indeed meeting. I asked him if awards would be announced tomorrow and he said it is very possible but he does not want to speculate on exact day as does anyone else at the JDA. They are gunshy. He said what he told me yesterday still stands "end of week" which could mean Friday, Sat, or Sunday. He told me to call back tomorrow and he would be able to give me "Very Very good news." I asked him why he would say that and he laughed and just repeated that I should call him back tomorrow for "very very good news."
IMO. JDA is being somewhate tightlipped with dates and meeting details because of what has happened in the past. But, this all points to awards anyday now. Call JDA if you like. Here are some numbers:
011 234 9 524 1064
011 234 9 524 1069
011 234 9 524 1065
011 235 9 524 1055
By Anonymous, at 11:29 AM
There's also a new article from the United Nation's IRIN agency, which again exposes its bias against ERHC Energy. The NGOs who have invested a lot of time and money in drawing up "transparency" laws to avert corruption are often funded by the multinationals whom they want to win the block awards. Such measures throw the process into the bureaucratic tangle of the courts and prevent only the wealthiest companies from being successful.
The NGOs have failed this time only because ERHC Energy's partners are substantial players who won't be pushed around by ExxonMobil and the other giant crybabies who have not gotten their way in the awards process because they arrogantly believed they didn't have to bid to win.
The multinationals call in all the favors due from the NGOs when crunch time comes, but it appears those will not suffice for them to carry the day.
Here is the garbage from IRIN, which tries to smear Sir Emeka Offor by association with the odious Sani Abacha regime, ignoring his equally close ties to the anti-corruption Obasanjo administration and the good offices of the African-American ex-U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria that sits on our board.
I have tried to correct some of the errors and false impressions left by the article, in boldface, below:
IRIN News 18/5/2005
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE: Oil minister resigns as
controversy dogs award of second offshore block
SAO TOME, 18 May (IRIN) -- Arlindo Carvalho has
resigned as Minister of Natural Resources of the tiny
island state of Sao Tome and Principe amid allegations
of irregular procedure and high-level corruption in
the award of offshore oil exploration rights.
This row is continuing to delay the award of fresh
acreage in offshore waters shared with Nigeria.
Carvalho quit on Monday, citing the existence of
private interests in the oil business which had
resulted in previous governments signing unfavourable
accords with the Nigerian-controlled oil company
Environmental Remediation Holding Corporation (ERHC).
Obligations entered into by previous administrations
were having a negative impact on current negotiations
to award new offshore blocks for exploration, he
added.
Two weeks earlier, President Fradique de Menezes
sacked his personal adviser on petroleum issues,
Patrice Trovoada.
Menezes accused Trovoada of using his official post to
further his own private business interests. The
president said in a statement there was "a clear
situation of conflict between his own interests and
those of the country".
Another of Menezes' former advisers, Manuel Rita, has
also been forced to quit after revelations that he
owned shares in ERHC. [Editor's Note: The president's
current advisor and cabinet member, not "former" advisor,
is Mateus Meira Rita, not "Manuel" Rita.
Menezes, meanwhile, has been accused of taking money
from interests close to the Nigerian-controlled
company in the past.
This row simmers on and has forced the president to
take a back seat in deciding how offshore blocks
should be allocated to competing oil companies, as he
prepares his campaign to run for a second five-year
term in 2006.
Menezes announced at the weekend that he would stand
down from Sao Tome's National Petroleum Council, which
is charged with recommending which bids should be
accepted.
The president said that in future he would simply
exercise a watchdog role over the award of exploration
rights at arm's length from the process of detailed
decision making.
Sao Tome and Nigeria signed a first contract awarding
exploration rights in their Joint Development Zone to
a consortium led by US oil giants ChevronTexaco and
Exxonmobil on 1 February.
The deal triggered a front-end bonus payment of US
$123 million, of which Sao Tome is due to receive $49
million.
However, the award of a further five offshore blocks
to companies, which took part in a second licensing
round last year, has been delayed by a row over the
status of ERHC. [Editor's Note: The National Petroleum
Council says that ERHC's rights were guaranteed by the
Abuja Declaration and therefore non-negotiable; they
specifically said that it was not ERHC Energy at issue.]
The US-registered company is controlled by Sir Emeka
Offor, a wealthy Nigerian businessman who is widely
reported to have enjoyed close links with Nigeria's
former military ruler Sani Abacha. [Editor's note:
As one of his nation's most important businessmen,
Emeka Offor has had to work with a succession of
governments whether they are to his liking or not.
He supports the Obasano government and was a major
contributor to Obasanjo's last campaign, and is a
strong supporter of the president's anti-corruption
initiative.]
Offor owns 35 percent of ERHC and is chairman of the
company. It has no tangible oil assets and has never
drilled a single oil well. [Editor's Note: Sir Offor's
Chrome Energy own 42 percent of ERHC Energy, and the
Nigerian bank First Atlantic owns 9 percent; they are
the only two reporting shareholders; Sir Offor owns no
shares directly. ERHC has one oil asset: Rights to an
estimated $28 billion worth of oil in the Joint Debelopment
Zone that are ensured by a treaty signed in February 2001
and renegotiated in 2003. ERHC is partnered with three
of the most important U.S. drilling companies, all of
which have extensive offshore experience in Africa, and
is headed on a day-to-day basis by CEO Ali Memon, the
former chairman of Marathon Oil's African exploration
subsidiary.]
However, in 1997, ERHC negotiated a deal with Sao Tome
which gave it preference rights to equity stakes in
six different blocks in the Joint Development Zone,
including all five currently up for grabs. [Editor's
Note: In 1997 the Joint Development Zone did not exist,
and ERHC's rights were far more subtantial.]
That agreement, signed by former president Miguel
Trovoada, was renegotiated by Menezes in 2003, two
years after he was elected president. But it still
leaves ERHC with preferential rights to equity stakes
varying in size from 15 to 30 percent in the different
offshore blocks. [Editor's Note: It also gives ERHC
100 percent preferential rights to two blocks in the the
Sao Tome Exclusive Exploration Zone, or EEZ, that are
potentially far more valuable.]
The present row focuses on opposition allegations that
ERHC has been given unfair advantages in the current
bidding process for offshore acreage.
As a result, the critics say, Sao Tome is likely to
receive less money up front from any oil exploration
and production agreement in which the company becomes
involved. [As a result of the agreement with ERHC,
the nation is due to receive vastly greater sums than
it would have, only after it sought to exploit its oil
resources at the behest of ERHC Energy.]
Antony Goldman, an oil analyst with Clearwater
Research in London, said Menezes had been able to
wring some concessions out of ERHC when he
renegotiated its agreement with Sao Tome.
But he said the deal was still "ruinously
unfavourable" to the government. [Clearwater Research
has never had ERHC as a client, but it is funded by
contracts with several multinationals.]
"Sao Tome tried to extricate itself from the deal, but
just couldn't. I think they are stuck with the deal,"
he told IRIN.
ERHC has formed a series of partnerships with three
different US oil companies with a respectable track
record of exploration and production to bid for all
the blocks currently on offer.
International oil companies had been expecting Nigeria
and Sao Tome to award these blocks [Editor's Note:
"to them" should be inserted here] in January, but
four months later, the deals are still held up by
political wrangling. [Editor's Note: The principal delay
was caused by ExxonMobil's lengthy consideration of the
block awards they did not like and had the right to
delay.]
Goldman said the crux of the problem was block four,
where EHRC and is partner Noble Energy have offered a
front-end bonus of $57 million along with pledges to
take an ambitious drilling programme.
Its rival, the US oil company Anadarko, has offered a
much higher bonus of $91 million, but has committed
itself to drilling fewer wells over a longer period of
time, he said.
The Joint Development Zone was established in 2001 and
is administered by a bi-national authority based in
the Nigerian capital Abuja.
Under the terms of the agreement, Nigeria will receive
60 percent of the revenues from any oil and gas found
in the deep offshore waters, while Sao Tome will
receive 40 percent.
The Joint Development Zone is widely believed to
contain an extension of Nigeria's existing offshore
oilfields. ChevronTexaco is expected to start
exploration drilling in 2007.
Update, 4:03pm, 5/19/05: The closing price was $0.70, with the Bid and Ask $0.70 x $0.705 and volume of 769,665 shares, about a third of yesterday's trading.
Update, 3:57pm, 5/19/05: Looks like a disappointing close in the $0.705
range, a gain of a half-cent for the day. Volume is 762,265, shotting up about 92K in the past quarter-hour. The Ask is $0.705 and the Bid $0.70.
Update, 3:40pm, 5/19/05: The price is $0.70 and the volume 669,334, and little is happening. The Bid is improved at $0.70, and the Ask remains at $0.702.
Update, 3:17pm, 5/19/05: At the 3:15 Surge there is some new volume, now at 614,134 shares, and the Ask and price are at $0.702, three-tenths below the high of the day, while the Ask is a little higher at $0.695.
Update, 1:38pm, 5/19/05: The volume is jammed at 452,006, with the price $0.70, the Ask, and the Bid at $0.69.
Update, 1:36pm, 5/19/05: An incoming jet approaching Tel Aviv International is the subject of an Israeli red alert. Stay tuned.
Update, 1:36pm, 5/19/05: The well-known shareholder Ruby1100 has generously offered us an insight that has been missing from our debate here: Why haven't insiders registered to sell? Here is the post:
Joe
One big point many ERHC'ers are missing which to me speaks volumes
is that last year, just prior to the JMC BL 1 Awards, there were 11 Million Shares registered to sell by ERHC insiders via FORM 144k Filings, i.e., John Coleman 4 Mill, Chude Mba [former ERHC President] 3 Mill etc.
Q: Why have these "In the Know" folks NOT registered to blast their shares this time ?????
Perhaps they are not interested in $0.70 or anything close and very, very Good things are about to happen to ERHC
just a thought
Ruby
Update, 12:27am, 5/19/05: The price is $0.70 and the Bid and Ask are $0.69 x $0.70, with volume at a slow 450,506 shares.
Update, 12:02am, 5/19/05: We're still at $0.70 going into the lunch hour, with volume moving very slowly to 447,806 and the Bid and Ask unchanged at $0.69 x $0.70.
Update, 11:50am, 5/19/05: Volume is slow, with just 3,000 shares trading in the past 25 minutes. The price is $0.70, the Ask, and the Bid is at $0.685.
Update, 11:24am, 5/19/05: We're at $0.685, with volume at 439,161 and the Bid and Ask at $0.685 x $0.70.
Update, 11:03am, 5/19/05: The price is $0.694, the Ask, just after hitting the low of the day at $0.68, and the Bid is $0.69. Volume is 410,489 shares. ERHE investors, unable to buy, are - in plain langauge - getting royally screwed by the skillful management of events in Sao Tome.
36 comments:
Very interesting theory Joe.
Although I do think the price will move very significantly after awards.
They have dampened the pre-award runup with the constant delays. You can only cry wolf so many times before people start ignoring the "potential" good news.
But once the awards hit all of that will change. It just might take a couple days or weeks longer for the actual news to filter through and for the price to soar.
Joe Im not sure I "buy" your theory regarding Mongo. He was posting on RB long before we ever partnered with Devon, Pioneer, and Noble.
I dont doubt that he is accumulating shares though.
**********UPDATE**************
Just spoke with Secretary of JDA. I asked him if he could confirm Obansanjo was meeting with Menenzes tomorrow and he said they are indeed meeting. I asked him if awards would be announced tomorrow and he said it is very possible but he does not want to speculate on exact day as does anyone else at the JDA. They are gunshy. He said what he told me yesterday still stands "end of week" which could mean Friday, Sat, or Sunday. He told me to call back tomorrow and he would be able to give me "Very Very good news." I asked him why he would say that and he laughed and just repeated that I should call him back tomorrow for "very very good news."
IMO. JDA is being somewhate tightlipped with dates and meeting details because of what has happened in the past. But, this all points to awards anyday now. Call JDA if you like. Here are some numbers:
011 234 9 524 1064
011 234 9 524 1069
011 234 9 524 1065
011 235 9 524 1055
11:35 Did you call the JDA yourself ? to dispute the update
the numbers were posted so you could call to confirm
why then don't you call and provide your own version
The post rings true to me. It is what they have been saying for several days. It may be that they believe their Big Buy is going to lay down the law and that will be that and in so feeling are overly optimistic, but the tone of the conversation is completely consistent with everything else we've heard.
Why would you ask Joe if he had called the JDA himself?
You are missing the whole point.
Nobody disputes that you are telling the truth and reporting exactly what the JDA told you.
Its just that nobody believes the JDA anymore.
They have been wrong about award dates at least 20 times. And yet you are naive enough to believe everything they tell you.
They will always try to put a positive spin on everything. That is their job. To make it seem as if everything is running smoothly.
So dont take it so personally when someone questions your posts about the JDA. They are not questioning you but are questioning your sources.
Joe, Ken here...
I posted on RB that the scenario is indeed possible, but what information would link that scenario with Mongo? And if Mongo is an executive at an oil company, how does he have the ability to haunt the boards of Raging Bull all day, every day? I think he'd be kind of busy...
And also, someone pointed out that Mongo was posting on RB long before our partnerships. Also, especially since he would be a busy man, why wouldn't he just hire someone to do what he does on RB? It's not like he's ever posted anything extraordinary, basically he just plants the seeds of doubt and uses half-truths to try to manipulate. A child can do that.
-Ken
In saying in my post that the info was tenuous, I was pointing at just such questions, Ken. What about Ted Botha? As someone else has already revealed on RB, the executive's first name is Curt,and Mongo referred to himself as Curt in a post someone found, and then there's the link our source suggested between this executive and 12 million shares. It seems important to me to at least air these things, because I truly believe that we are vastly unervalued at the current price mainly because of behind-the-scenes manipulation by people like Mongo and the "We Are Golden" gang on RB. Let's suspend disbelief for a minute; if we do that, we should also presume that whoever is doing this is very, very closely following the boards to make certain the truth doesn't come out, and that the price is suppressed by bad news and murky doubts as they continue to accumulate.
Joe,
Touche. Let's hope for resolution and absolution, sooner rather than later.
Ken
Obasanjo is not going to STP to force the issue with de Menezes. But, he is going to smooth things over in a diplomatic way after the fall out. He and de Menezes have already discussed the issues via teleconference. So, this trip will be a combination of showing good intentions, as well as finalizing the contract.
Awards this week.
in the end its common investors that will move this stock. not some manipulating fark. they can buy as low as they want, it will do no good when no one will invest in this stock anymore.
good luck arseholes
may you all die in peace.
Curt and the gangs should be brought to justice.
Joe
1 big point many ERHC'rs are missing which to me speaks volume
is that last year just prior to the JMC BL 1 Awards there were 11 Million Shares registered to sell by ERHC insiders via FORM 144k Filings, i.e John Coleman 4 Mill, Chude Mba [former ERHC President] 3 Mill etc.
Q: why have these "In the Know" folks NOT registered to blast their shares this time ?????
Perhaps they are not interested in $0.70 or anything close and very, very Good things are about to happen to ERHC
just a thought
Ruby
Obasanjo will get this done!
Good Post on RB
I tend to agree with Larry. I am fairly confident that Obasanjo has put his foot down in his conference call with Menezes earlier today (or if not, certainly will during his visit to Sao Tome on Friday). I think Nigeria has been very patient in attempting to let Sao Tome work through its political difficulties over the past two weeks. I suspect Obasanjo’s patience is at an end, and the time for indulgence is past. This whole process is becoming totally absurd.
Nigeria is the 5th or 6th largest oil producer in the world. Sao Tome has never produced a drop of oil in its existence. They export about $4 M worth of cocoa per year!
Nigeria has a GDP of $50 B and a population of 135 M. Sao Tome, on the other hand, has a GDP of $189 M (0.4% that of Nigeria), and a population of 170 K (0.12% that of Nigeria). Of course Sao Tome is an independent sovereign nation, but we have a case of the tail wagging the dog here.
Nigeria has been loaning Sao Tome money just to keep the doors open over the past year (if I recall correctly, something like $10M).
When Menezes was thrown out in last summer’s coup. Obasanjo got him back in power 5 days later and personally escorted him back to Sao Tome, like a parent holding their kids hand and dropping them off at kindergarten. Menezes owes Obasanjo – big time, even if it means blowing his re-election possibilities next year.
Besides all this, Nigeria is holding $49M of Sao Tome’s signature bonus money from block 1.
If anyone here has ever been involved in large project work, you know there always comes a time when the customer makes some unrealistic demands for additional work which you know you are not obligated to do under the terms of your contract. Of course this demand always come at a time when he is holding your next big milestone payment.
You could always sue him and tie things up for months or years, but instead you do what he demands because you know this is the most expedient way to get your money, money upon which the short term survival of your company may depend. Even though they may have no right to do so, Nigeria holding $49M of Sao Tome's money is huge leverage. I think the comments from the Nigerian ambassador is the first public indication that Nigeria is going to start turning the thumb screws.
I believe Obasanjo will successfully persuade the Sao Tomese power brokers (by whatever means necessary) just how foolishly they are behaving and quickly bring this all to an end. Sao Tome stands to become wealthy beyond their wildest dreams if they can just get this thing done. They are squabbling over petty political interests, and what in the end will be nickels and dimes. They are hardly in a position to oppose Nigeria.
12:57 posted nonsense. The account in which the signature bonus are being held is a joint account requiring two signatures for release. STP has not signed, so they are the ones holding the money up and not Nigeria. And just who are you to say that their complaints is "petty". Everyone agrees that there is has been gross mismanagement and underhanded transactions from both sides which is why the situation has blown up in the final hour. If Obasanjo even attempted to go to STP to force his word/weight the whole agreement will easily fall apart. He's not stupid and knows he will get nothing by showing the "power brokers" just how "foolishly" they've been. That is not how things work there. He's going to offer an olive branch and reassure the government about the process. However, I personally don't know why in the hell STP would agree to have their portion of any incoming money put in a Nigerian financial institution. STP has their own banking facilities in Portugal and the US, and should have arranged for their portion to be sent directly to another location. That's to say the least of things that should have been handled differently.
I think this is all rampant speculation, basically on your part Joe.....
You have been wrong many more times than you have been right.
Stop this manipulation!
I think despite Lusa that we're talking above about stuff that is already over. Obasanjo is not going to Sao Tome to plead or beg but to sign awards. I have absolutely no doubt about this. The process is over and the awards are set to be announced. "I think" he is carrying a check for $49 million with him that will be presented at the ceremony, which will be televised live for the beenfit of the entire nation.
Joe,
If the check part is true, that will be the "olive branch". Not that he's doing STP people any favors for that jesture. They are due to get it anyway.
Why 'despite Lusa,' Joe? Why imagine a cabal?! If Portugal-based media are the only ones or among the few reporting problems, it's more than likely due - not to plotting by a frustrated Lisbon, as you seem to suggest, but to the simple fact that there's no one else around to report ex-STP.
You know - from experience - how hard it is to get any news out of there.
After all, the Nigerian ambassador called a news conference and directly criticized his hosts in most un-diplomatic fashion at his own initiative - not the Portuguese media's. Ambassador Pindar decided to act in this way some 24 hours before there was any public confirmation that Obasanjo was heading to Sao Tome. He surely acted at Abuja's instructions, not Lisbon's.
If anyone is calculating, manipulating timings, it's the fed-up Nigerians - not Lusa or RDP-Africa radio! Much less myself.
Bests,
P.S. OOPS, that 'unkown' is me, Homeport.
Cheers,
Homeport, if it's biased reporting, you seem to be saying, we should be grateful anyway because it's reporting. I am not grateful for what they are doing with these biased reports to our share price. Had they balanced the story with the payments and commitments and debt ERHC undertook in order to help get the JDZ created, and the huge concession they made in giving up 49% royalties from oil revenue, and if they reported at the samer time the statements coming from the JDA expressing optimism and even certainty about near-term awards, then we might not be at $0.70 but at $1 or more going into the last days of the process.
all the greed will send this stock straight to hell. better sell at 70 cent than 20 cent after awards.
looks like 2 mill shares on ask. who could that be ?
should gap down nicely tomorrow.
good luck
this will probably end up being a disaster to sao tome , and the end of future bidding rounds with nigeria. and the erhc shareholders can kiss their arse good bye.
stay tuned
If your prime concern, Joe, is ERHE share price, as you seem to indicate, then your sense of 'balance' in reporting is most questionable. But I won't discuss journalistic criteria with you - though I could, as I've had some experience both in international and major African media.
In a sense, yes, we ERHC shareholders should be grateful for scraps of info - biased, incomplete or not. Our company certainly doesn't provide much enlightenment. Nor do analysts. Nor does Reuters, nor AP Dow Jones, nor the Nigerian press, nor....ex-STP.
And that's why I'm grateful to you - and to iHub and serious RBers - for your seemingly untiring efforts! But I read The Blog, as I do everything - with a grain of salt and considering the source or sources.
I know that Lusa's STP stringer is an islander. I gather from the accent of RDP-Africa's correspondent (and, fyi, the radio has nothing to do with Lusa, as you erroneously say) that he is too. Though I know neither personally, I imagine neither would meet NY Times standards of professionalism. To the degree that they reflect 'bias' - and I don't doubt they do - they reflect STP's biases and contradictions, not those of a collapsed European empire.
Your suggestion of Portuguese cabal in the reports I've shared with you and fellow shareholders is mistaken, gratuitous.
Keep the faith,
My personal concerns as a blogger hve nothing to do with their journalistic practices, which as I say are hopelessly biased against us. And the cabal I suggest is not gratuitous but occasioned buy the widely-reported and very tardy efforts to get blcoks for themselves, and the Lusa reports show it is not mistaken, either. As for me, I am not grateful for scraps, and biased scraps at that.
The fellow with the Comments so focused on "arseholes" obviously didn't profit from his bashing or his false statement about the "2 million at Ask." At the end of the day we are unchanged, and volume never reached 800K.
Homeport, if you are collecting salt a grain at a time you will never decide or know anything; you'll just have a lot of salt.
this turd will go straight down tomorrow. insiders dumping the last few days, it probably end up being another disaster .
good luck
I smell a rat. It has that distinctive and all-too-familiar odor of the species joe floridius. We got a nasty bite from this pest a week ago and never quite recovered. Symptoms of a long-term infection are becoming distressingly apparent.
good luck lmao
I hope anonymous is selling his shares tomorrow, since if it drops like he says I want to buy some more!
I mean, just because there was no glut of shares on the ask (which would have depressed the price) today, surely anonymous has keen insider insight and it will drop tomorrow!
Nice of that idiot to drop by.
Joe..
Just another example of the spin you put articles in your blog!
In the headline, You specify "very,
very, very good news", while down in the report, just "very, very" is specified. That's just two thirds as much good news!!
Great stuff out there today!
Dude, you have lost your mind. Mongo does not work here in Dallas, and I speculate no execs of any of ERHC's partners watch the bs on RB. This stock does not move based on the comments of an alias on a message board! Take a community college business course people.
FYI, RDP-Africa radio reports ex-STP that senior governing MLSTP/PSD party describes President Menezes' libel suit against party spokesman Carlos Tiny as an attempt "to silence" criticism of his alleged mis-management of oil negotiations with Nigeria.
Radio quotes MLSTP statement as saying the party's leadership stands by and is collectively responsible for Tiny's public accusations against Menezes last week.
G'nite,
Homeport
Salt of the Earth, Joe?
Boa Noite,
Homeport
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