JDA Communique, Page 2
Page 2 says the Joint Ministerial Council delegates from both countries "harmonized" on all the blocks, and asks "more patience" of stakeholders as it makes "spirited efforts" to obtain signatures.
Update, 5/27/05, 3:59: Although we are keeping our 120,000 shares, we recommend to anyone who may need their money with the next month or two to sell, as there appears to be a long, drawn-out process much like the last one ahead for us. Thus, the advice below is no longer operative, having been overtaken by Radio Africa RDP news reports of the Prime Minister's statements on Sao Tome radio.
There's an awful lot of confusion, as always; today, it's about the Communique from the Joint Ministerial Council Secretariat this morning and three articles from UpstreamOnline, Reuters and the Dow Jones Newswires. What do they add up to?
First, as I said in the preceding article (just updated), I think that the reporters are taking anything the JDA says with a grain of salt, having been burned too many times by bad information they went to press with; their editors are probably furious that their news organizations have bween wrong so many times about the where and when of awards.
The reporters state the facts: 1) that there was no announcement of awards; and 2) that the JMC Secretariat statement did not promise an announcement at any specific time. So they did their job; the headlines merely reinforce what they said, that there was a meeting and that no awards came from it, and that the results of the meeting have been forwarded to the two heads of state for signature.
Second, we did get word via a Comment that Obasanjo has returned from Paris and signed the awards document.
Third, we believe that the surge in EEL's price on the London AIM today is evidence that ADI party leader Patrice Trovoada got at least some of what he wanted, so that he and his party will join with the MDFM, their Christian Democrat allies and move the awards forward in the National Petroleum Council, the National Petroleum Agency and Parliament. It should be noted that unless there was a very substantial change, the first two bodies have already seen and approved the awards with caveats that were addressed by the second meeting, and in fact may not have to see them again. It's difficult to be sure on that point.
Fourth, we think the MLSTP, the ruling party whose Damaio vaz de Alemida is Sao Tome's Prime Minister, has also gotten what it wanted - a thoroughgoing embarrassment of the de Menezes presidency through the resignations of himself and two others (one of which was rejected) and the firing of Patrice Trovoada. If they will have calculated correctly, they have done all the damage they can do to the de Menezes candidacy without also bankrupting the country for the next several years, and inheriting a shell of a nation when they next seize the top spot.
It is my very firm belief, then, that action on the awards will be forthcoming within the Memorial Day Weekend, and that the awards will become known by Tuesday night at the very latest; I don't think they will wait until Tuesday, however.
Along with dozens of others, I have been wrong before about these awards and their timing, but I have not felt more certain than I do now that they are due within three days.
142 comments:
Good, now the process will move forward.
Nice attempt at spin 10:34. You should say, "well now I hope the process can move forward."
What spin? The JMC agreed on choices, and now we move forward. Where is the spin?
What I hope is that Obasanjo and de Menezes are on the phone right now and discussing the changes that were made during this JMC Meeting.
Hopefully these two leaders will take a leadership role, do a little give and take, and sign off on awards.
If one of the leaders is unhappy with the results surely some other concessions can be made outside of the JDZ to make up for it.
One would think so anyway.
What other choice is there? To cancel this round?
That would be an unmitigated disaster. What company would bother to bid? I guarantee you the respected companies in this round wouldn't bother. They wouldnt want their company names attached to this ridiculous process.
So the bidders would be companies with no technical experience and minimal resources. The two countries would be costing themselves millions and millions of dollars and what little reputation they have left.
It will also effect their ability to atract interest in their respective EEZ rounds.
What spin? The spin that this is a done deal. This is not a done deal. You are probably one of these delirious longs who have been saying it was a done deal for over a year now.
IMO nothing much was accomplished at this meeting. They must not have reached a concencus. Because if they had the JMC would have announced the award winners yesterday. Last year the JMC did that on Block 1. They did not issue a release saying the heads of state had to sign off.
So Joe and others are mistaken when they say that the heads of state have to sign off. That is NOT part of the treaty. The JMC has the ability to announce the awards when if there is a concencus.
So the reuters article headline was correct. Because there was no concencus.
By the way, what has Menezes done in the past to lead you to believe he will sign off this time?
His track record tells me he wont sign.
people who sell here has absolutely no brains!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
period.
de Menezes doesn't have to prove anything to any ERHC investors. He doesn't know you, and for STP you represent nothing in this whole process. This is about proving to STP people that corruption will not be tolerated in an process as important as this to the country. He has done his part now by exposing people who put the country on the wrong path and has nothing more to gain by holding up the process. For STP, this represents a start that will result in good governance from here going forward. Those involved in the process will think twice now before accepting bribes from oil companies or the Nigerians. He will sign off on the awards now without further delay.
Nice intelligent comeback to the previous two posts.
Not a very good response.
I wasnt referring to the other 10:53 AM response.
curt in court soon?
10:47... you are wrong....
for block 1, both heads of state were PRESENT. in this case, NEITHER were present and the JMC must get the sigs of both. Mongo? mongo? i shut you down with this yesterday
Mike
"de Menezes doesnt have anything to prove anything to any ERHC investors."
You are correct. But who said he did? Certainly not I. He doesnt have anything to prove to ERHC shareholders.
Having said that, he has ALOT to prove to the rest of the world and to the 20 or so oil companies involved in this process. Thus far he has proven that he is incappable of leading and making a decision. He rules by appeasment instead of taking charge and making a decision.
Where has he been over the past few months. Certainly he knew these people within his own govt. were corrupt. Why did he wait until now to do anything. He wasted month after month of valuable time.
I could care less about ERHC. Im watching this whole process unravel due to his lack of leadership. And I dont believe he will sign off because IMO he has an ulterior motive.
10:47am has two things confused: What the treaty says, and what the country's law requires. It is the Sao Tome law that requires President de Menezes to go back to his national petroleum council and agency and parliament before signing. The treaty doesn't require that, but his own country's law does and he has to follow it.
10:53 I hope you are right about Menezes signing off without further delay.
And Menezes does not have anything to prove to me, and before you jump my case about shortening to Menezes for reference purposes, note that I also have nothing to prove to him. If he takes exception to it, he can let me know next time I bump into him in Portugal at one of his nightclubs.
Thanks,
Maurice
Joe if that is the case. Isnt it logical to assume that he put people on the JMC that he knew would not agree to a concencus.
That way it would take the responsibility off of his shoulders. Then it would go to his parliament where he knows it wouldnt pass.
And then awards would be stalled and he can claim it wasnt his doing.
*******UPDATE*******
on RB from the "Slapper"
Just spoke with Secretary of JDA. This is the same fellow who told me what we'd have a PR yesterday and we did. He told me Obansanjo has already signed and that the STP delagation just left for home today.
I asked him when Menezes will sign and all he would say is "read the press release and use your head this is done."
Basically what he is saying is that STP would not have agreed on all block winners "harmonised" if Menezes was not going to sign off on all this. Menezes will sign at any time apparently. He said he can't speak for Menezes obviously as to when he will sign but he reiterated that "all is done."
He also mentioned that both parties wanted this done as soon as possible.
Take it for what it's worth folks but this looks very good IMO. Call JDA if you want to verify.
11:02 if you think the whole process is unraveling, than why are you still holding shares? Not a smart investment move. One should never get emotionally involved with their investments. If it doesn't work move on. And it's so nice of you to be concerned about how the 20 or so oil companies are viewing this process. Maybe you can be his adviser!
11:08 - highly unlikely though logical in a corrupt manner, BUT there was a consensus... so even if he did do this his plan failed because the communique states harmonization in the process... fwiw
Mike
The JMC member who didn't agree probably is a plant from another company who wants to see this round cancelled IMO.
I also think the Sao Tomeans believe that if they continue to stall and cancel round after round that they could cause sufficient injury to ERHC that they would cease to exist. If that is their thought process that is highly unlikely and ERHC could claim damages against the government of Sao Tome.
I wonder what competitive company in the oil sector would love to see all of the above happen??
11:14 AM thats assuming there was no concensus. That seems to be a bone of contention here. Some people think there has been a concensus. Others such as myself think harmonizing was a politically correct way of saying there was no concencus.
Mark thanks for the update. Surprise surprise. Look who has already signed the document, Obasanjo.
But where is de Menezes? Obasanjo was the one in Paris. And yet he is the first to sign on. Why hasnt de Menezes made the effort to reach a speedy conclusion and sign off like Obasanjo did??
Read the above posts to figure it out. Because de menezes has no intention of signing off thats why. And in my opinion he never has.
Obasanjo already signing and Menezes being a laggard and stalling is about as predictable as saying its going to be hot in a desert.
For all those who don't think there has been a consensus, SELL NOW & SHUT UP!!!!!!
11:21 - Read that one again, the STP party has not returned yet, so de Menezes has nothing to sign yet. This COULD go very quickly, but we shall see.
As to harmonizing, I think what they mean by that is that after they hammered out a plan to take to the leaders, they all gathered and sang a tune. Dimka sang Bass, Carvalho sang tenor, me and the JMC joined right in.
Maurice
To answer Ruby's question on RB as to why de Menezes would send a delegation over to Nigeria if he wasnt going to sign off.
Thats very simple. To cover his ass and make it look like he tried to get this thing done. And since they didnt all agree now he can throw it back to parliament and claim he is not the one to blame when they cant agree on awards.
Menezes doesnt like the arangement with ERHC so IMHO he will try to make them fail. In addition he is probably courting Exxon. This is all IMHO
Also watch him purposely delay things in the Sao Tome EEZ. It is predictable that the Sao Tomean govt will delay the third selection as long as possible so that ERHC will have to wait a long time for their 4th and 5th selections,.
This is all in my cynical humble opinion.
11:29 am poster, you're forgetting that Sao Tome last year had discussed ERHC in parliament and ok'ed ERHC rights. They didn't like it but they knew they had to live w/ it. The recent ramblings has been jockeying by certain STP political figures to gain better rights.
11:21 and 11:29 who appear to be the same person - talk about conspiracy theory... so FDM decided to send delegates he knew wouldnt agree to a "consensus" but were so smart that they created an official document with the "unknowing" delegates of nigeria - whom apparently have no experience in the oil industry. On this document, they carefully chose the word "harmonization" because they realized it has many synonyms (FDM also must have included in his criteria for delegates "master linguists"). By doing this then, FDM felt his super rich country doesnt need any of the money sitting in a nigerian bank account... also, The World Bank means nothing to him. Afterall, STP is a world hyper-power and when your this powerful, who needs the largest bank in the world or their suggestions. Let me guess, the moon landing was actually a set somewhere in the southwestern desert
Mike
This notion that anytime someone doesnt jump on the "we are golden gang" bandwagon means they are Mongo or Monkey is absolutely ludicrous.
If the JDA had said the de Menezes had signed and they were still waiting for Obasanjo then that would have been a news event. And a reason for positive feeling among all of those involved.
But the fact that it is Obasanjo who has signed and de Menezes that hasnt tells you all you need to know.
And to the ridiculous assertion that de menezes hasnt signed because the Sao Tome delegation is still in Nigeria, that is absolute nonsense.
If he had any intention of signing he would have already. They have cell phones and fax machines in Sao tome last time I checked.
Although you would never know it by the way they govern over their.
Joe,
You know what? I like your blog, but really resent these RBers bringing their rubbish here. They behave worse than children. Now that this deal is for the most part over, they insist on arguing on fine points that are irrelevant at this point. If the JDA said all is well, than all is well.
Hey Mike,
Why hasnt he signed yet?
11:42 My "ridiculous" assertion that de Menezes would wait for his delegation to return is based on the "ridiculous" history of nothing happening in this process until there are face-to-face meetings of the parties. If I were leader of STP, I would wait until meeting with my delegation before signing off, fax or no fax.
So, there is the basis for my crazy notion of the morning. Logic. Sorry if that does not appeal to your spin.
Maurice
Don't say mongo and monkey. It's Curt and monkey. Right Curt? LMAO.
For the 11:43 crazy, have seen the head doctor lately? Oh, maybe you forgot you medication this morning
hey de Menezes. Im calling you out on your little charade.
The rest of the companies in this process along with Obasanjo should be too.
Of course Im sure that Exxon supports you. IMHO crook
11:43 - neither you or i know but these crazy theories definitely dont explain it. in regards to what maurice said:
theres a little word called "culture". "Culture" is different all over the world. Maybe, it is not appropriate or a proper custom for an STP official to sign via Fax etc. Maybe, since this is such a big deal for STP, it should be signed in person etc etc. Look at it from the nigerian side, they already have money flowing from oil and is not even remotely close to the ramifications this will bring to STP. possible explanation as to why obi has signed and not FDM. all theories, but more logical than FDM being a master manipulator who sent over a corrupt delegate. disclaimer - i have never once said this thing is done... but this is definitely the closest its been
There you go again. Diverting attentiin away from the main issue which is.
Why has Obasanjo signed and why HASN"T de Menezes signed.
Does Menezes have any intention of ever singing.
Those are the issues. Not some BS about which posters are who and what. That is irrelevant.
Any ideas out there why Equator Exploration (EEL) is up 7% so far today on high volume?
Maurice,
How convenient. You claim that STP'ers only make decision after face to face meetings.
Pure nonsense. You better come up with a better reason than that.
Thanks for that tip, 11L57. They must have gotten some additional acreage. I just hope it came at the expense of the indies like Godsonic or Momo and not ERHC. I thought they would lose the acreage they had, frankly, but if the JMC was looking ahead to a Trovoada presidency, maybe they said, well, things will fly better if we give him a piece. Who knows?
It was down to 1.15 yesterday.
I must say though that that is very interesting regarding EEL. That at least gives one cause to hope that there were some changes made that would allow de menezes to sign off despite my contention that he doesnt intend to.
Someone is buying EEL.L
Over 1,000,000 shares traded today and trading near its 52 week high. Hopefully somebody knows something.
And we trade at rock bottom . that make sence, we only have about 50% of all the friggin oil while eel has a spoon full.
any chance we will break 70 cent after awards. ?
Mongo, i mean 11:57, why do you persist, no one knows why... my point is that your crazy theories definitely do not explain and cultural issues could explain. again, you live an awesome life frequenting message boards all day in stocks you dont own
Mike
EEL was up 9% to $131 on the London Exchange which is near its 52 week high.
Volume was 1.3 million shares. Avg volume is around 850,000 shares. So there was definitely a nice increase in volume and price although I would call it huge volume.
The London market is now closed for the day.
So in um, its hard to say if there is anything to glean from this information.
So IMHO Menezes wont sign.
Mike get over yourself. I am not Mongo nor do I have anything to do with him.
I am a realist. I just comment on what I see. I dont try rationalize something is positive just because i want it to be.
The fact that Obasanjo has already taken the time to sign and de menezes hasnt tells me all I need to know.
You can pretend everything is ok if you would like. And I certainly hope you end up being correct and I am wrong.
Unfortunately I dont think he will ever sign.
Mike let me ask you a question.
Why would de Menezes wait until now to voice displeasure over agreements that were signed with ERHC years ago?
Why wouldnt he have brought these issues to the forefront before this latest round of awards began?
Why would he drag these companies through this long and dragged out process and THEN start complaining about ERHC rights and those in his cabinet that had connections with different companies?
Why did he wait until now?
IMHO its because he wants to drag this out as long as possible so as to bleed ERHC dry so Sao Tome will never have to live up to these agreements. And IMHO another company in this process would like to see the same thing.
And that is why de menezes will delay in the EEZ as well. Just watch. EEL will select their two blocks so that income can start coming in to Sao Tome.
Then the Sao Tome govt gets the third selection. Watch them drag that out as far as possible so that ERHC has to wait longer to make their 4th and 5th selections.
That is my prediction. I hope I am wrong. It is all IMHO.
12:21/mongo - where and when have i said this was done? nowhere and never... my point here is that your theories are, for lack of a better term, idiotic. NO ONE KNOWS. he may not sign or he may sign.. again WHO KNOWS... the point is that youve gone as far as arguing linguistics... give me a break
Mike
Mike,
I have said all that I have to say. You are getting irritated because you probably believe the same thing but are afraid to admit it.
I would be absolutely shocked if de Menezes signs this weekend or anytime soon for that matter.
My prediction is that he will say that all members of the Sao Tome delagations in the JMC did NOT come to a concensus so he has no other option but to throw it back into parliament.
How convenient Mr. de menezes. Spare us the BS.
Joe,
Do you see any merit to my line of reasoning?
P.S. Best of luck to you Mike and no hard feelings. I hope you are right.
whatever happened to the jeter interview? Or was this just another ploy by joe? Seems joe intends to spread false rumors again. I never thought jeter would come to a site like this anyway.
My aplogies. EEL is still trading. Its up 7% on 1.5 million shares right now. Double the normal trading volume.
Ambassador Jeter suggested that we do the interview on the 22nd or the 23rd, and your village idiot - me - responded, well, that will be too late (as I thought the awards would have already come out). I think, in a way, that he selected those dates for the probability of awards being completed by that time. I will call him back soon and try to get another date.
The way this thing is going you would probably be better off interviewing Derek jeter.
At least it would be entertaining.
I love how whenever there's 'good news' about ERHE, the price always seems to drop.
Whats the good news you are referring to?
How can the fact that de Menezes has not signed yet be construed as good news?
How can the fact that according to Radio ADP Africa, the Sao Tome delegation arrived and one unidentified member said the Nigerians were difficult to deal with and that it favored Nigeria rather than Sao Tome.
Is that good news?
"Whats the good news you are referring to?"
Maybe the fact that things seem to be (slowly) moving forward, after nothing for so long.
"I love how whenever there's 'good news' about ERHE, the price always seems to drop."
I couldn't agree more!
Things are moving forward? Really? How so?
April 26 and 27 the JMC Meeting was completed and all that was needed was signatures from the heads of state.
Its now May 27 and now all that is needed is signatures from the heads of state.
Thats progress?
Could have fooled me.
Joe,
I think a combo of bad press, slow trading day due to three day weekend, and the fact that de Menezes has yet to sign is causing the ERHC sp to suffer. Do you agree?
Sao Tome has made a mockery of this whole process. They have poor leadership and too many factions.
Trying to get any of them to agree on anything is nearly impossible. Why do you think the country is in such dire straights?
Its not just about oil, its like that with everything. They are a bunch of hot blooded politicians who only have teir personal interests at heart and not the welfare of their constituents.
No oil company will ever want to do business with them again nor should they.
Joe,
Just read your update, and what you said is pretty much the same thing the first 10:53am poster said minus a few more details that you spelled out. Looks like they know what they are talking about.
how could Menenzes sign the paper if he is on the island and the paper is in Nigeria?
what a maroon.
Joe I read your update and it well written and very well thought out. Unfortunately I have to disagree with you though.
de Menezes has no intention of signing. Even the Sao Tome members of the JMC who just returned from Nigeria had negative things to say.
If awards were moving forward and they had intentions of signing then why would they say negative things when they arrived in Sao Tome today? Then it makes them look like they are caving in if they do sign.
A no comment would have been much better or even something politically correct like, "we accomplished a great deal with the Nigerians"
Instead they complain that the Nigerian are difficult to negotiate with and that everything favored Nigeria.
That sounds to me like they are setting us up for no action and no signature.
Which of course was de Menezes and his cronies goal all along. To stall this thing out. IMO
2:41 please give it a break. You've been posting the same crap all dam day! How many times do you have to post volumes about not signing the awards. Maybe you are wishing it to be true. Please please please see a psychiatrist. You need urgent help.
2:41, they bitch and moan to the Portuguese press, bu they sign in English on the dotted line. RDP Africa is, unfortunately, not a reliable source on the subject attitudes of the JMC delegation, or the prospect of awards, because it does not want them to happen before Portugal can get into the act. It's like having a rich aunt who is only too happy to tell you of all the mistakes you've made - and secretly hopes you never get rich.
from homeport posted on i-hub:
Portuguese Lusa Agency reporting ex-STP that latest Abuja talks were "fruitless" and that two presidents likely to take a decision within a fornight. It cites a Petroleum Coucil source who asked to remain anonymous.
Lusa quotes source as saying bilateral disagreement centered on "criteria for the selection of companies competing for five blocks" with STP defending priority of signature bonuses against Nigeria's preference for proposed production timetables.
Official reportedly said one stick Nigeria was using to get its way was to press STP to pay up USD 15 Mn expenses incurred by the JDA.
Another stick they should dangle is a threat to send warplanes over their and bomb them into eternity.
That should tell you all you need to know about the Sao Tomeans. They do not want to get this thing done.
The World Bank has said this is the best deal as was posted on RB. And they still do not want to listen.
did 100,000 shares just go through recently?
I dont know but the general direction is a slow drift down.
This was all very predictable and it is now all coming to light just as I predicted this morning.
de Menezes will now claim that because there was not unanimity among the Sao Tomean delegates that he has no other choice then to hand it over to the parliament.
That way he will not look like the bad guy. Of course he knows full well the Parliament will never approve this.
So de Menezes gets his wish, no awards, and he can blame parliament for it.
(By the way the delegation is back in Sao Tome, where is the signature??)
Hey dont shoot the messenger.
I am now recommending that traders sell if they need the money within the next month or two; I suspect the awards are going to arbitration and will not be signed.
Joe, I am curious. Where did you get the jda pr at? It isn't on their site.
tia
I am, however, maintaining my own position of 120,000 shares, as I have all the money I need for the near term as a result of selling 3,040 shares at $0.68 earlier this afternoon.
The PR was sent to me by a number of posters. It's also available on other ERHE-related sites.
I must be insane. I dont even think de menezes is going to sign and yet stupid me couldnt resist and bought a little more.
I hope I dont regret this.
There is major major manipulation going on here, and I'm not sure where it's coming from. So-called communique says JMC came to harmonized agreement, yet news agencies are reporting problems still exists. Some kind of manipulation going on here. We should know the real deal by Monday.
Why is that the communique only appeared on the ERHC great sprinps Website, and not on the official JDA Website? Has there been some kind of forgery here?
I wonder if Mr. Shea has the proper state and federal certifications to give investment advice?
P*U*K*E
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ERHC = P*U*K*E
Abe,
You are obviously a certified member of the "blame Joe for everything crowd".
Are you out of your mind? Last time I checked Joe wasnt the one sitting in the JMC Meeting reluctant to sign off on awards.
That was those nitwits in Sao Tome who are probably getting advice from Exxon. IMO
Abe your a typical ERHE long. You should pay a lot less attention to what posters are posting and alot more attention to whats going on in Sao Tome.
Blame the resposible parties.
You people never cease to amaze me. China could launch a nuclear missile aimed directly at Wall Street causing all stocks to drop and you idiots would blame it on Joe Shea. What the hell is the matter with you people.
The price dropped because de menezes hasnt signed and the comments coming out of Sao Tome have been anything but positive.
Get a clue people.
Hey Joe Im not married to Pamela Anderson its all your fault...
Hey Joe My Miami Dolphins didnt win the Super Bowl, its all your fault.....
Hey Joe, the dog ate my homework, its all your fault.....
Blah, blah , blah, blah blah,
Start blaming the Sao tomeans and stop blaming Joe.
The Sao Tomeans have known these agreements for a long time. And they are still bringing them up now??
Even though the World Bank and the IMF said the companies selected had the best offers on the table?
And thats Joe's fault??
Are you kidding me? You people should be ripping these corrupt politicians from Sao tome instead of Joe Shea.
President Obasanjo,
Please do one of two things to Sao Tome.
1) Bomb the hell out of them and take over the country.
or
2) File a $10 billion lawsuit against them for purposely holding this whole awards situation hostage with the likes of Exxon.
IMO
Since I am a peaceful person, I would recommend option 2). If these people cannot even abide by the IMF and the World Bank then they deserved to be punished.
They dont have a leg to stand on.
So they are going to arbitration and the awards will be announced by tuesday? Would you be willing to bet your life on it? I doubt it Rick Majerus.
Whoever may be counseling the STP government on the potential of settling this through arbitration does not understand arbitration and is using this possibility as a lever with people who understand it even less. 1) they can't unilaterally re-open the arbitral award with ERHC granted by UNCITRAL. Forget it. 2) I do not believe there are provisions in the Treaty for any sort of arbitration in the event of disputes. No provision...no arbitration. Period. 3) Arbitration would take 5 years, not 5 months. There would be a coup on the island and everyone involved rounded up, but this time the Nigerians won't ride in and save the day (having said that, they might and install someone a little more reasonable in bilateral dealings).
This arbitration crap is being spread by none other than Patrice Trovada; the man who is disguising his personal agenda (Equator share ownership and a deal with Anadarko to get big money if they get block 4 with acting in the nations best interests; the man who stays out of government so he can point fingers at everyone when this is over so he can look good in a run for the presidency.
de Menezes is playing right into the opposition's hands. He is doing exactly what they want him to do.
The longer Sao Tome goes without awards, the better it is for the Menezes opposition.
Why he doesnt realize this is beyond me.
He needs to prove to the people of his country that he can take a leadership role and start bringing in oil revenues to change the quality of life as soon as possible.
Instead he allows this to drag on and on, just like the opposition parties had hoped would happen. The longer this goes the less likely there will be major oil discoveries before the election and the less likely Menezes will be re-elected.
The opposition party loves all of this chaos. He could have ended the chaos by signing off on awards and setting a path towards the future.
Instead he continues to be weak.
Yes you are correct Patrice Trovaodo is definitely getting the best of de Menezes IMO. He is bringing this whole awards process to a grinding halt and de Menezes is either too weak or too stupid to realize it or do anything about it.
Menezes deserves to lose the election. He'a a coward who should have taken charge, signed off on the awards and lead the country towards the future.
Instead through his indecision and inaction, he allows the opposition party to grow stroger by the day.
Obasanjo never would have allowed this to happen in his own country and Nigeria was smart to put their foot down and not let Patrice weasel his way into changing awards.
The IMF and World Bank said ERHC/Noble is a better deal then Anadarko or EEL.
Actually Barry Morgan had pointed out in his article a over a week ago that Patrice Trovaodo was the one most difficult to convince.
He's probably been bribed so there will be no convincing. He should have no say so in this process anyway IMO. Last time I checked he wasnt the President of Sao Tome.
Unfortunately the President of Sao Tome is too spineless do anything about Patrice or so it seems.
Hey Fred why dont you just hand over the keys to the Presidential Palace right now. Why wait until next year.
For all of you that say that message boards and posters can not move a stock - today was the proof - you dimwits!
Can anyone verify anything that Homeport has posted?
Can you show me a link? And even if you can - is it credible?
Then Joe - recommends you sell your shares??? How much friggin damage the mindless moronic longs do to one stock!
The other thing I love is how all the main longs have gone completely quiet since the sell-off. Your all fucked and I hope you loose all your money! You all deserve each other.
And your next investment should be CMKX - you will all be very much at home with those freaks!
Joe, about your comment at 11:02, you said Menezes should go back to his national petroleum council and agency and parliament before signing, my question is, does he have to follow what they say or can he go his own way no matter what they say?
the longs on RB have to be the dumbest group of people I have ever seen. It makes me question at times how I could be long this stock.
Now they are questioning whether homeport is accurate and whether the lusa new really existed? How proposterous. These are the same bozo's that ripped this blog 2 weeks when Joe and homeport brought us information that their was trouble in Sao Tome.
But do any of the longs apaologize and thank Joe for the info? Of course not.
And now they are attempting to repeat the same thing again.
Do they never learn??
Thats the solution, blame Joe for the fact that Menezes hasnt signed yet. As if it is Joe's fault.
But hey, its nothing but blue skies right guys.
Denial is a river in Egypt.
tradertrades in response to your question, that all depends on whether a true concensus was made on the part of the JMC.
From the look of it it doesnt seem as if they had concensus. I could be wrong, but their comments and the fact that de menezes hasnt signed yet doesnt bode well for concencus.
Does Menezes have to go back to the parliament and the oil council?
If so then the whole Sao Tome process is a flawed system that will never resolve itself. Because there are too many decision makers and too many people with an agenda.
Thats why ruling by concencus never works. Too much corruption can enter into it. And that is exactly what has happened in Sao Tome.
de Menezes needs to take control of the situation and realize his political adversaries are purposely trying to derail awards.
If he doesnt sign off he will risk throwing this whole situation into chaos and will put his re-election bid in serious jeopardy.
He is playing right into his opponents hands by allowing this to go on much further.
Sign off on the awards and get some revenue coming into your country.
Take a stand Frederique!
Hey walldog,
Where are the awards???
Is it Joe's fault that there are no awards??
Answer the question and cut the crap.
Its funny. Many have said for months that the Sao Tomeans can not make their mind up on anything and are always bickering.
We have seen that first hand in this fiasco. No wonder the country is such a mess.
How can anything ever get done with all the factions and no leadership.
You know Joe,
You have put yourself under the spotlight whether you meant to or not, simply by creating this Blog and maintaining it day to day, minute to minute.
Many investors are reading your blog now.
I wonder if you feel any type of responsibility to your readers. Do you?
Why post investment advice? Do you feel it is in the best interest of your readers?
Do you feel it is in your best interest?
test
Any chance that bullets could be flying and one of them ending up at someone's head? If this comment is not appropriate, please delete, Joe.
Ladies & Gentlemen,
Joe feels empowered to rule ERHE. He now feels he can move the stock in any direction.
He feels that he is more powerful than Obs., Menedez, JDA, JMC and finally GOD. Yes, L & G, Joe has become more powerful in his own mind.
Sad, sad, sad life he lives.
God Help you.
here ye here ye,
Attention all morons who still dont get it....
Joe's comments about selling is not what moved the share price down this afternoon.
What moved it down was the information from homeport that was posted on i-hub where he discussed what was said on Radio Africa about the Sao Tome delegates. That is what moved the share price.
Not Joe Shea.
When the Sao Tomeans came back and said the Nigerians were difficult to negotiate with and that the choices were advantageous for Nigeria and not Sao tome that caused a sell off.
That had nothing to do with Joe Shea. It was posted on i-hub first.
So quit your damn whining.
I certainly hope Mr. Obasanjo and Mr. de Menezes realize the gravity of this situation.
I hope they have been speaking via teleconference for the last 4 or 5 hours to hammer out an agreement.
They better have a sense of urgency and an open line of communication.
Yes and the Lusa report that said they were still debating on technical competence vs. sigmature bonus money was the final nail in the coffin late in the afternoon.
To think after all of these months they are still haggling over this issue.
Dont the Sao Tomeans realize the world bank supported the choices and said Noble/ERHC was a better deal than Anadarko.
That tells you all you need to know. The Sao Tomeans dont want this thing to get done. They are a bunch of crooks.
That and Trovoado, who someone i seem to recall on here called a two bit politician lol, is still pulling all the strings.
How can Menezes even let this guy get away with it?
Hey patrice, besides having a name like a girl, your side lost. The world bank said so you crook!~
Watch very closely this weekend for the news.
I`ll site my sources as very close to the lastest meetings. Saturday, around 11:00am Pacific time release for those looking for PR`s, if not leaked sooner.
I`ll state simply, that one of the principles was told they`ed be cut off completely, and all bank funds withheld if they didn`t fall in line with the agreed upon awarding and the awarding of some blocks would go ahead without the sign off.
It will be dealt with in due course to all objections, but the majority were in agreement that the awarding must be completed.
Both principles likely will be in Paris to make their case this Summer, but that will not impede the progress for awarded O&G`s companies in the interim, they`ll have complete reassurance of this with backing of U.S. interest.
9:49 Pm
On behalf of everybody thank you for that information. It has been a trying day for all parties involved and that would be great if things did proceed as you have stated.
We realize that sources are not accurate 100% of the time and that might be true of your sources but nevertheless thank you for the information and may God Bless you and your family.
funny how all the gurus have faded into the background on this.
Stunned fellas?
Great DD by the way - next time - try darts and tea leaves for your investment tips.
Joe - way to crate a stampede for the exit on Tuesday as well. Nice job!
Joe's creating a stampede for the exits? Sorry, but despite all his distracters, he just doesn't have that degree of clout. Neither does Homeport IMO. This is not to say that can't contribute in a small way to buying and selling trends, but in my opinion the sell-off we saw Friday was mostly driven by traders and momentum players. The type of "investors" one can find on numerous stocks going into a three day weekend, especially OTC stocks which are notorious for a higher than average amount of short term holders.
As the police used to say "back in the day":
"Move along folks, nothing to see here."
Many westerners are used to a level of open and competitive news reporting, along with a relatively high degree of transparency in negotiations such as these, that when the confront anything less, they can become quickly confused. This leads to suspicion and in some cases, paranoia. Especially where large sums of money are involved. Hell, at times I'm even inclined to quickly suspect the worst and look for conspiracies. But as for now, let's apply Occums razor and attribute the fits and starts we are witnessing in country to cultural and social differences. Nigeria and Soa Tome run on their own respective time frames and sensibilities, not Wall Street's, or for that matter WalMart's.
As they say "back in the day" you are full of crap!
Traders and momo players? Let's look at that - the stock has been in a steady downtrend for the last 2 weeks. There has been no breakouts to play and no momentum. Even a good trader could not get a decent scalp on trying to trade ERHE. It has been mostly red since it's high of .86 a few weeks ago. To suggest there were traders and momo players in it Friday is absurd - the stock was red most of of the day. I can belive that a few were in hoping for news before the bell - based on all the longs wild lies (I mean - predicitons), but the sell off started immediately following Homeports post and Joe's cheery follow up - PERIOD! I watched the whole thing unfold tick by tick.
I am not saying that smart money sold on Friday - although the smart investor would have sold in the .80's or the .70's on the way down. But to think the message boards can't move a stock as fragile as this one - is niave - to say the least.
I don't even know if the news is all that accurate, but when a long that runs a highly read blog recommends to sell and then goes quiet - believe me - he has an will effect the SP.
We all better hope something a bit more positive comes out in the next 72 hours, cause Tuesday will get bloody.
While it's clearly your desire to scare people out of their shares, it is not the desire of myself to influence them one way or the other. My advice is to maintain a cool head and not see boogymen where none exist, or none that can be objectively or factually shown to exist.
While this stick has been chopping sideways over the past two weeks, with a slight downwards bias, it has done so on anemic volume. Especially for a stock with 700 million shares outstanding. The average daily volume is 1.7 million, or about one quarter of one percent. Over the past two weeks how often have we've seen volume run over average by any significant amount? Friday's volume wasn't even double the daily volume for ERHE, so just less than one half of one percent. Can that be momo's, traders or a few weak hands who are exhasted with this stock or perserving capital over a holiday weekend? Yeah, I think so and IMO it's not a stretch to concluded as much in this casino of a stcok market where speculators vastly outnumber investors.
BTW, I can take my nine year old to a baseball game and he can watch the game pitch by pitch for nine innings, and in the end not understand anything more than the final score. So you can watch a computer screen and follow a stock tick by tick. Bully for you.
Righteeoooo - I'm trying to scare people out of their shares - LMAO - that is being done by much bigger forces then myself. It is being done by Homeport and Joe and I am just telling you what will happen because of their behavoir.
You are right - Friday was NOT a sell-off - but allow this to sit in the pit of peoples stomachs for this long weekend and see what we get on Tuesday.
I have no desire to get more shares of an already shaky investment, so beleive me, scaring more people then Homeport and Joe have done is not my intention.
And yes - all of this is new reports from bias sources and nothing has really come out that shows what is really going on right now. But that didn't stop Joe from making his recommendation to sell - now did it!
And how about Homeport and his cheery methods to slide in blows and then sign off with a cheery - "BESTS" - or enjoy this long weekend! What a crock of crap from both of them.
Homeport, Joe, SwingingK, OranageandWhite, Spec29, Mudawadi - or whatever that freaks name is - they can all take a flying leap off a tall bridge - they are all full of crap IMO.
And you need to spend a bit more time educating your 9 year old I suspect!
Yeah sure, I've got 120k shares and I'm not selling, BUT I advise everyone else to. No of course not, I don't care if the value of my shares go down. ROTFLMAO! Anyone who can't see that Joe uses this blog to flip shares is a total and complete idiot.
Well so much for awards by 11:00 AM PST.
Another expectation come and gone.
I wonder what the oil companies in this process are thinking right now? They have to be kicking themselves for wasting the time and resources to be involved in this mess and those corrupt politicians from Sao Tome.
Hey Maurice,
I thought you said the reason awards had not been signed was because the delegation had not arrived in Sao Tome yet?
ROTFLMAO
Well they have been home for 24 hours? Where the hell is the signature??
You were about as wrong on this as your are on your take of the US media or your take on republicans.
Im going to start calling you "wrong way willie" instead of Maurice.
Have a nice day you little left wing socialist you.
And your buddy colin was wrong too. He said "you will get your awards".
Really colin??
You have been wrong 100% of the time. Way to keep that perfect record in order.
Anyone who thinks Joe uses this blog to flip shares is a complete and utter moron.
You should spend less time whining about Joe Shea and more time getting to the root of the problem which is de Menezes.
de menezes is the one who hasnt signed. Not Joe Shea.
de menezes is the one who lets Patrice Trovaodo rule the country. Not Joe shea.
Patrice Trovoado IMO is the scum who is in bed with Anadarko and EEL, not Joe Shea.
Focus on the true problem people. Stop focusing on other posters.
Focus on why de menezaes hasnt signed>
IMO de menezes hasn't signed for the following reasons, here are the possibilities IMO:
1) He is in bed with Exxon and has no intention of ever signing because he and they want a rebid.
2) He refuses to sign because he wants to inflict damage on ERHC in the hopes they dissolve as an entity and he will do the same in the EEZ.
3) He is a puppet for Patrice Trovoado and that is the true reason the Sao tomeans keep pushing for Anadarko and EEL.
4) He is a weak leader who rules by appeasement.
5) all of the above
Collective avg. IQ of ERHC longs:
12
If I include myself 300.
ROTFLMAO.
Here is the lates news from Lusa as posted on Ihub from homeport.
Oil Min Carvhalo, just returned from JMC Abuja meeting, told Friday news conference that USD $49.2 Million from B-1 is expected to enter STP's coffers very soon.
"Documents were approved for this sum to be distributed" and the two deleagtion chiefs determined such take place "as rapidly as possible," he said.
"Still no consensus" on Blocks 2,3, and 4 and positions presented for "later decision taking," while in STP the Oil Council "to meet to make its contribution."
The matters under discussion have already been submitted to the heads of state "and can't say there's a total consensus."
As matter of "credibility" for JDZ, if STP doesn't act more rapidly on 2nd licensing round Nigeria will "discount" (call in?) STP's JDA debts along with B-1 signature bonus.
Carvalho estimated STP's JDA's debts for 2002-2004 at USD 10 million.
This is the most significant comment we have had from Sao Tome since the JMC Meeting so let me give my interpretation.
1) The Oil Minister said that no consensus had been reached at the JMC Meeting for Blocks 2, 3, and 4.
2) These issues will be presented to the Oil Council in Sao Tome where they will then make their recommendation.
3) These issues have already been submitted to Obasanjo and de Menenez because there was no consensus.
4) As a matter if credibility for the JDZ, if the STP doesnt come to a quick decision then Nigeria will maake them pay $10 million in debt and with hold the $49 million in Block 1 signature bonus.
5) This is the STP Oil Minister saying this, so this is a positive IMHO. They know they need to reach a decsion fast.
Now go back and read what anonymous at 9:49 PM wrote last night. His statements appear to have some validity.
He said last night that all bank funds would be withheld if they didnt sign off on blocks
And that awarding of some blocks would go ahead even in the event that there wasnt a sign off.
He said the majority were in agreement that the awarding must be completed.
And that both principles likely will meet in Paris to make their case this Summer, but that will not impede the progress for awarded oil and gas companies in the interim.
So he is basically saying that awards will go on. Hopefully he is proven correct.
WHY HASNT CARVHALO"S COMMENTS BEEN POSTED on RB?
This is the most signifcant news we have had and no one has even posted it or discussed it.
WAKE UP
Hey; Joe time to update page and header...Also how do we email or call de menezaes or sao tome oil council that would make my day....
If this doesnt tell you the root of the problem then I dont know what does.
1) Trovado
2) EEL
3) Anadarko
Blocks 2, 3, and 4 are still up to debate. Even though the World Bank has stated that the best proposals were selected.
de Menezes should realize this and sign off. If he doesnt I would have to conclude he is a puppet of Trovado and was put into the role of President to be Trovado's "yes" man.
Barry Morgan even pointed to Travado. Looks as if Barry might be correct on at least one point.
Of couse this is all opinion.
Joe has been sleeping a long time - bet we get yet another "dream" from his efforts.
I hope Nigeria holds the money to "set off" against the damages Sao Tome is causing Nigeria for wrongfully witholding their consent to awards that have been endorsed bu the World Bank as the best deal for Sao Tome.
Bad faith by Sao Tome, which will get their azzez kicked in an arbitration, which Nigeria would almost certainly win.
If this goes to arbitration Nigeria will most certainly win. Sao Tome doesnt have a leg to stand on.
They can delay and have this taken to arbitration only to be further embarrased on the world stage.
Or they can sign off on awards and start getting money into the coffers.
Which would you choose? unfortunately logic never seems to prevail in this process.
Only ribery and greed.
Sorry longs but just gat to laugh at the latest news if credible.
lol.
It is officially a circus, I mean from Dec 30 to May 26. However, my instincts is June 5 or June 7.
Lets see what's up then
Nigeria and the rest of the oil companies in this process whould sue Sao tome for not operating in good faith.
They are costing these oil companies millions and millions of dollars by stalling this whole process out.
The Sao Tomeans are all corrupt. Plain and simple. If the average investor can see it Im sure the arbitrers and the World Bank can see it.
And Sao Tome is going to the World Bank for debt relief?
Do they really think they will get debt relief after the way they have handled this process?
Not a chance.
Now you know why President Bush was reluctant to help them out.
He demanded that they increase production before he would commit to anything.
I guess ole George is not as dumb as some people think. Im sure the Sao Tomeans have a bad reputation as not being able to make a decision and this whole process will only worsen it.
Hello everyone. Remember me? I was the one on here yesterday telling you the following and was ripped for it.
1) That no consensus had been reached
2) That de Menezes would not sign off on awards.
3) That it would go back to the Sao Tome Oil Council and they would have to review it thus taking de Menezes off the hook when they reject it.
Well the above article with Carvhalo's comments has now just confirmed all of that. So thank you very much. It was very easy to see if you would just open your eyes.
I still believe de Menezes has no intention of ever signing. And that he is a pawn of someone else.
But I am very encouraged by this article because Nigeria appears to be taking a very strong stand.
So I do believe the blocks will be awarded but it will be WITHOUT de Menezes signature.
And I do think that de Menezes has some sort of agreement with Trovado that he would not sign off on awards unless Trovado's companies were the winners.
From what i recall it was the Trovado's that hand picked de Menezes to be President.
Gee I wonder why they did that?????
Its all very obvious now. Thas why I have believed de Menezes never had any intention of signing.
The above is all just my humble opinion, could be totally wrong.
Im glad the market is closed Monday.
Maybe some additonal information will come out by Tuesday that is somewhat positive.
I think Carvhalo's comments were fairly positive.
anonymous 5:01
You should know all about complete and utter morons since you wrote the book.
Someone just posted on RB that it is now clear to see that de Menezes never had any intention of signing.
And that he double crossed the Nigerians.
I agree completely.
He has wasted the Nigerians time, he has wasted Nigeria's money, and he has hurt Nigeria's ability to attract interest in their EEZ as well as delaying it.
He made a serious mistake IMO.
You dont mess with the Nigerians.
Sao Tome, de Menezes, Travado, Exxon, Anadarko, EEL, and Mongo
vs.
Nigeria, Obasanjo, Offor, ERHC, Pioneer, and Noble.
Anonymous 8:28
I am a complete and utter moron?
Even though I am the one that has proven to be right on everything?
Oh ok. That makes sense.
By the way.....
Has Fred signed yet??????
I didnt think so.......
Maurice said that the reason menezes hadn't signed yet was because the delegation hadnt arrived on Sao Tome yet....
And Im the moron?????
Gee Maurice maybe the delegation was hungry when they got back and went to Denny's and lost track of time.....
DUHHHHHHHHH
Maurice,
I have to give you some props though in all seriousness...
Your post about harmonising and Dimka singing base etc was the funniest post of the day.
What's the name of wire1540? Anonymous? He's posting a lot here.
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