Investors have little verifiable English-language news to guide them day to day and have to proceed by the seat of their pants, letting atrophied arts of intuition and divination do the job that good information usually does.
Thus, today's uncertainty produces the caution, worry and depression that usually combine for a stock share price downdraft.
But there is nothing predictable about ERHE. You always have to wait for the opening bell, and today, we do so with unusual interest. Good luck, everyone!
Update, 5:10pm EDT, 5/23/05: The 3:15 Surge saw about 87,000 shares traded and a close of $0.69, a half-cent loss at the end of the day - which is pretty damned good considering the tentative nature of the awards as the day started, hitting $0.65 shortly after the open. However the closing Ask was just $0.69, and the closing Bid is also lower, at $0.681.
Update, 3:06pm EDT, 5/23/05: Volume is snagged at 1,088,100, with the price at $0.68, the Bid, and the Ask at $0.69. The 3:15 Surge seems more likely to take us down a notch, perhaps to an $0.675 close.
Update, 2:30pm EDT, 5/23/05: The PopTop contest deadline is hereby extended to May 3, four days after the presumed awards. Send your real name, address, telephone number and guess to amreporter@aol.com. We've had some great entries for our $100 prize, and my gut tells me I already know the winner. Some predictions go up to the $8 range, while others are under $2.
Update, 2:30pm EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.68, reflecting slow volume until we draw closer to the close. The Bid is $0.67 and the Ask $0.69, so market-makers are splitting the difference. Volume is 1,050,000.
Update, 1:54pm EDT, 5/23/05: At $0.695 now, we are trading at the Friday close. Volume is a trickle at 1,019,000, and the Ask has fallen to $0.70.
Update, 1:42pm EDT, 5/23/05: Volume is 1,001,800 as the Bid and price slip to $0.695 and the Ask falls to $0.70.
Update, 1:31pm EDT, 5/23/05: Volume just creeping now, but we'll hit a million soon. The price is still $0.704, the Ask, and the Bid still $0.70.
Update, 1:26pm EDT, 5/23/05: Volume is now 966,825, picking up substantially.
The Bid and Ask are $0.70 x $0.704, and the price is also $0.704. Looks like there was a 100K buy at the Ask.
Update, 1:23pm EDT, 5/23/05: The price is at $0.704 again, with the Bid also rising to $0.70, on volume of 863,092 shares.
Update, 1:15pm EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.699, midway between the $0.695 Bid and the $0.704 Ask.
Update, 1:14pm EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.704, the Ask, with the Bid unchanged at $0.695. Volume is unchanged.
Update, 1:11pm EDT, 5/23/05: The awards were supposed to have been today, I believe, until the Sao Tome hijinks and the Obasanjo-MLSTP meeting. I expect the new JMC meeting to be a very short one.
The price is $0.70, and volume is 852,892. The Bid has dropped to $0.695.
Update, 1:08pm EDT, 5/23/05: To my surprise, the price is not slipping noticeably, and in fact has risen to $0.704, again probably in anticipation of a large buy. The price is also the Ask for the moment, and the Bid is now back at $0.70. Volume is moving along at 849,592 shares.
Update, 1:00pm EDT, 5/23/05: Other than to pay $1K of bills or so, I am not going to sell, I have pretty much decided. I'd like to get the dough in my hand, but I feel very good about the following weeks. I would look to exit in late June, keeping about 60,000 shares.
The price is $0.70, and the Bid and Ask are unchanged at $0.69 x $0.70. Volume is 804,331 and picking up.
Update, 12:54pm EDT, 5/23/05: The Bid has dropped back to $0.69, with the Ask still at $0.70. Volume is steady at 748,246.
Update, 12:47pm EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.70, with the Bid and Ask unchanged and volume at 758,246. It looks to me like the buying is driven by anticipation of awards much like those first revealed by Barry Morgan in UpstreamOnline.
Update, 12:47pm EDT, 5/23/05: The Bid falls back to $0.69, and so does the price; the Ask is $0.70, a quarter-cent lower now.
Update, 12:43pm EDT, 5/23/05: The Bid has improved to $0.70, which is a very good sign, and the Ask is still at $0.7025. Perhaps a big trade is pending. Volume is now 744,746 - maybe it just went through.
Update, 12:39am EDT, 5/23/05: Volume has reached 683,746. The price is $0.69 and the Ask is $0.70.
Update, 12:33pm EDT, 5/23/05: I don't think this last post was from mutwadadi. It sounds like SwingingK to me.
Update, 12:25pm EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.70, the Bid and Ask $0.69 x $0.70. Volume is 668,746.
Update, 12:11pm EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.705, and the Bid and Ask are $0.70 x $0.7025. Our little run may be over, but it was nice to see.
Update, 12:11pm EDT, 5/23/05: The Ask is at $0.705 and the Bid at $0.695, so ERHE is doing the unpredictable and amazing things it usually does. There's a Comment from mutwadadi, I understand, in our Comments section, and I understand it's very hot. Update: Not sure it's from him now.
Update, 11:59am EDT, 5/23/05: We're at $0.70, and volume is 530.312, and the Bid has risen to $0.68 again.
Update, 11:50am EDT, 5/23/05:The Ask has leapt with the price to $0.699, while the Bid is now at $0.67. Volume is 520.012.
Update, 11:44am EDT, 5/23/05: The Ask has risen to $0.69, and the Bid to $0.685. The price is $0.685, and volume is at 510,012. I'm in our PalTalk.
Update, 11:39am EDT, 5/23/05: A response to SH70 on the process. My gut tells me they will not go back to the Sao Tome side again as they did the first time, but logic tells me they must. So I think there will be som pro forma consideration. But come to PalTalk right no and I'll tell you what I really think!
Update, 11:35am EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.685 and volume has just topped 500,000 shares at 500,372. I've got something I'd like to share with a smaller group (we've got 4,000+ visitors a day here now), so I'm going to PalTalk to our ERHC On The Move voice- and video-enabled site, under Groups/Miscellaneous and down at the bottom of the list. I'll be there by about 11:37, and want to be out after 12. See ya!
Update, 11:27am EDT, 5/23/05: There is a new update from SwingingK, minus anything new, and a huge round of congratulation for him. How very supportive everyone is! :)
The price is $0.68 and the Bid is $0.68, while the Ask is $0.685 and volume stands at 447,374.
Update, 10:44am EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.665, the Bid, and the Ask is still at $0.67, with volume meandering to 361,174 at a very slow pace.
Update, 10:30am EDT, 5/23/05: The price has hit a low today of $0.65 and a high of $1.14, according to trading information from both Ameritrade and my own independent, London-based ADVFN. Yahoo, TD Waterhouse and MSNBC also confirm a trade of 5,00 shares at $1.14 at 9:57am. There seemed to be no trouble executing, either, but the High and Low figures have not updated.
Does this have to be an error? Not at all. It's quite likely with awards so near that someone will be the first to pay what the stock is worth before awards, and $1.14 is certainly reasonable. The interest is mostly on the Sell side in the last 30 minutes, according to ADVFN, which has a damnable 15-minute delay (for $45 a month!) The current price is $0.67 and volume is at 354,674.
Update, 10:21am EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.665, the Bid, and the Ask remains at $0.67, with volume at a modest 342,885.
Update, 10:13am EDT, 5/23/05: The price is rangebound for now, with volume petering out at 332,585 and the Bid and Ask at $0.665 x $0.67. All we can do is wait for a three-day weekend. :)
Update, 10:08am EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.67 as volume hits 319,385, slowing. The Ask is $0.67 and the Bid $0.665.
Update, 10:05am EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.665 on volume of 313,385. Here's another Sam Dimka update, this one from Greg, known as gvw2 and also first posted on Raging Bull:
*******News Update, JMC meeting again tomorrow*********
Just got off the phone with Sam Dinka and he is very optimistic (his words) that the process will be complete this week. The JMC will arrive in Abuja from STP tomorrow afternoon and meet through Wednesday. He did not elaborate on the discussions at the meetings. He feels that we can start to look for awards possibly Thursday. He is extremely upbeat!!!
Sam said that there are two separate forms of government between the two countries and they need to be respected. The process is good for STP to go through, because of the lack of experience that they have in these matters. Sounded like talking points from Obasanjo.
Update, 9:52am EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.67, the new Ask, with the Bid also better at $0.665, and volume at 311,385.
Update, 9:52am EDT, 5/23/05: Looks like the "shake" has already found its bottom at $0.66. The price is now $0.665, the Ask, and volume has reached 175,855, not especially impressive.
Update, 9:47am EDT, 5/23/05: The price is $0.66, down $0.035, and the Ask is $0.665. Another "buying opportunity" has developed for traders weary of them. Volume is 163,815.
There were several other updates, and a note directly from Sam Dimka posted in our Comments section, and the only thing they varied on is the date of the JMC's new meeting.
In the one posted under this article in our Comments section, the spokesman for the Joint Development Authority gives Wednesday and Thursday as the JMC meeting dates, but the update from markvol10 and this one below from jake at Raging Bull gives a "Tuesday and Wednesday meeting date, as mutawdadi told us:
------- UPDATE -------
Just spoke with Sam Dimka. He confirmed that the updates that we have been getting here are legit. And, he confirmed the meetings Tuesday and Wednesday and he also confirmed his optimism. I asked him if there were any reasons why STP or Nigeria would not go along with the agreements as is and he could think of none.
I tried to ask more questions but he kept resorting to the quote, "They are meeting and wait until Wednesday or Thursday for official news." He sounded very busy (many voices in the background) and professional.
Update, 9:26am EDT, 5/23/05: There's a new and optimistic update from Markvol10 confirming our report yesterday from mutawdadi - who gave us all a scare by suddenly changing his style a bit - and it looks like the awards process is "back on track," as a newspaper report put it on Saturday:
****Confirmation UPDATE****
Just spoke with Secretary of JDA. He confirmed that JMC would be meeting later tomorrow and Wednesday. I asked him what was the main purpose of the meeting and he said "it is to conclude this whole process of awards, of course."
He did not want to commit to exact day and time for awards announcement. He basically conveyed to me that they were not permitted to speak on behalf of JMC members. But he did he best to make it clear to me that awards would be announced this week.
Just goes to show you that the best information available comes from this blog and its reliable posters.
Update, 9:35am EDT, 5/23/05: The price opens at $0.68, with the Bid at $0.67 and the ASsk $0.68, on volume of 54,900 shares.
Update, 9:26am EDT, 5/23/05: The opening Bid appears to be $0.69, and the opening Ask $0.695.
16 comments:
Joe,
At this point, I refuse to get excited just because Dimka announced another meeting. He has put his foot in his mouth so often now, as have those rocket scientist posting their conversations with Sammy et. al. over at RB, that its very hard to take any of them seriously. Dimka could be right, but I will wait and see. Muktawdadi has more credibility than Dimka. Isn't there a way Muk could communicate with you more directly so that there's no question that it's him providing info? This week is make it or break it for me. Like I said before, I knew problems would arise from the beginning. Sorry, but I still think ERHC was a bit responsible for this controversy, even if STP is now focusing on other Nigerian Indies as being the problem.
I guess he can communicate with me any way he wqants but feels most comfortable with what we're doing. It's great that he has been so helpful.
I posted that this would be the likely scenario about a half hour before his update, and so it makes a lot of sense to me. It gives everyone a fresh start.
I do not think ERHC was responsible, though; we got a deal like ExxonMobil got from STP, and I don't hear anyone criticizing them for theirs. Driving a hard bargain is not something we have to apologize for.
Frankly, I think we may see the elimination of Equator Exploration from this equation, if you will, as in fact Patrice Trovoada is a lot more responsible for the problems than anyone else, in my opinion.
check out yahoo ... im guessing just an error that there was a quick $.45 jump to 1.14??? also look at the days range
Why an error? Someone paid what it is worth before awards. Why don't we all put some out there at $1.14?
Joe,
I also think Equator might lose. The JMZ can only play around with the minor percentages or it will run the risk of having to let XOM have another 30 days to consider their options.
The JMZ can only tinker a little.
Chet
I think it might have been "titration." Just whetting our appwetie. Some people look at $5K lioke chump change.
The way you can spot that SwingingK is wrong is that he didn't know about Momo and Godsonic's indie awards. He just reiterated what has been widely published over the past week. He doesn't do any research other than reading the blog very, very carefully.
Why is it that SwingingK is the only one who can get through to high level JDA authorities, and top level executives of the companies involved? Even so, this accessibility has made a bit of difference, except to get people excited just be frustrated all over again. He's better off keeping his mouth shut. Let the JDA publish an announcement date on their Website for credibility.
I agree the $1.14 buy was not an error. In fact, the idea of buying at an EXPECTED price instead of the current market is a novel concept. I am going to put in a buy for $3 for 10,000 share because I expect it to get that high in the future, rather than buying them for $0.66 and having to deal with capital gains.
Thanks,
Maurice
sao tome's jmc delegation is due in abuja tuesday/wednesday. all the indications are that they are ready to sign. exactly what it is that they are ready to sign is less clear. if it is what nigeria has agreed, the awards can be made. mutwadadi
Thanks, mutwadadi, your post is wildly more useful than mine. I am humbled.
Maurice
CANT WAIT TO SEE JOE's HEADLINE READ ~~~ FINALLY!!!!!!
DEE
Maurice, your cynicism is wildly justified... :) I understand they have reversed that trade.
Lots of houisehold chores and a bank and lunch run coming up, so we'll have intermittent updates.
FYI, Joe, Lusa reporting Menezes rejected Oil Min Carvalho's tendered resignation. Cites presidential stam that makes nono reference to reported JMC meet.
Lusa says Pres turned down resignation 'cause Carvalho:
-- has "precious info" on awards process;
-- is "co-author" of 2nd round; and
-- must await results of order inquiry.
Cheers,
This ERHC ordeal is like the movie "Ground Hog Day". Each week we go thru the same garbage, Awards soon, Awards next week, Awards by the end of next week. Lets all by on Monday and sell on friday.. Atleast WE COULD START MAKING SOME MONEY!
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