Trading Updates: With No Sign Of Awards, ERHE Opens Sharply Lower; De Menezes Set To Visit Abuja Wednesday? Sao Tome Oil Panel To Meet 'This Week'

Frustrated and fearful with the lack of an announcement of block awards promised by the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Ministerial Council, investors saw their shares drop almost $0.04 at the opening bell.

ERHC On The Move has urged its readers to contact officials and the press in Washington (see post "Awards Protest Mounted As Bush, Obansajo Meet," below) to demand that the United States take a leading role in making certain that the awards process is soon finalized.

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Update, 4pm EDT, 5/2/05 We're closed! The price is $0.715, off $0.105, a loss of $12,919 for the ERHC On The Move portfolio of 123,040 averaged at $0.4394. Frankly, we're delighted just the same because the price is right for buyers and the news is solid at last.

Update, 3:59pm EDT, 5/2/05 Volume hits 2,190,800 with the price better at $0.729 and the Ask at $0.729. Bid is $0.715.
Update, 3:58pm EDT, 5/2/05 Volume is 1,967,500 and climbing, while the price and Bid are $0.715 and the Ask is $0.72 with two minutes to go.

Update, 3:55pm EDT, 5/2/05 The best buying opportunity in weeks has materialized at $0.715, the Bid, and the Ask is $0.72. Volume has climbed to 1,850,500 shares.

Update, 3:53pm EDT, 5/2/05 No turnaround as the price falls to $0.73, then moves up to $0.735, while the Bid is $0.725 and the4 Ask is $0.73. Volume has soared to 1,852,200 shares.

Update, 3:48pm EDT, 5/2/05 We still expect a turnaround as the price again hits the daily low, $0.74 and the Ask is $0.745 on steady volume of 1,709,600 shares.

Update, 3:45pm EDT, 5/2/05 With 15 minutes to go, the price and Bid are lower, at $0.741, and the Ask is $0.745 as volume soars to 1,672,800, climbing rapidly.

Update, 3:43pm EDT, 5/2/05 Strong volume noted at 1,614,500 as the price holds at $0.75, the Ask.

Update, 3:42pm EDT, 5/2/05 Buyers should move in soon as the price climbs back to $0.75, above the $0.745 Bid and at the Ask, on 1,555,900 shares.

Update, 3:40pm EDT, 5/2/05 The Ask ticks up to $0.76, and the volume to 1,534,600, moving quickly. The Ask has fallen to $0.745, its low of the day and the current price.

Update, 3:37pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price hits $0.75, the low of the day. The Ask is also at its low of the day, $0.755, now on volume of 1,502,100. Given the Portuguese news agency Lusa's report on the comments of Arlindha Carvalhao, the Sao Tome foreign minister, this is a fine buying opportunity.

Update, 3:30pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price is $0.765, the Bid, and the Ask stays at $0.77 as volume ticks to 1,445,200 and SwingingK swears at me from the bottom of the heap. Nothing personal, Swing.

Update, 3:27pm EDT, 5/2/05 Volume has reached 1,435,100 shares with the 3:15 Surge in progress. The price is up a quarter cent to $0.7675, and the Bid has improved to $0.765, while the Ask stays at $0.77.

Update, 3:24pm EDT, 5/2/05 We're down at the day's low at $0.765 with the Bid $0.76 and the Ask $0.77. We don't expect the downdraft to pull us any lower.

Update, 3:21pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price sinks to $0.77 as volume climbs past 1,350,400. The Bid is $0.77 and the Ask $0.775, both lower.

Update, 3:18pm EDT, 5/2/05 At the appointed hour, volume climbs to 1,314,900 shares and the price remains off $0.04 at $0.78, the Bid, with the Ask at $0.785.
Update, 3:15pm EDT, 5/2/05 The Bid is $0.78, which is now the price, and volume climbs to 1,311,300 shares. The Ask is lower at $0.785.

Update, 3:10pm EDT, 5/2/05 I am criticized in the Comments section for "misinterpreting" muktawdadi's post regarding President de Menezes' visit to Abuja on Wednesday. On the principle that no one goes to Abuja for the hell of it, I believe he would only go there for awards, and while that doesn't appear to be what muktawdadi is saying, his post does leave room for that. I expect both presidents would like to have the awards completed so that President Bush can discuss them publicly at his press availability with President Obasanjo on Thursday. Five minutes to the 3:15 surge.

Update, 3pmEDT, 5/2/05 Volume climbing to 1,261,600 shares with price, Bid and Ask unchanged at $0.78 x $0.785. On ADVFN 15 minutes ago (2:37pm EDT), Buys lagged Sells 507,337 to 601,661, with 104,968 now unidentified. The large number of unidentified shares indicates a lot of in-fighting over small price changes.

Update, 2:55pm EDT, 5/2/05 Based on the greater near-term probability of awards, we expect a price improvement in the $03.-$04 range before closing. Right now, the price is $0.78, the Ask $0.785 and volume has reached 1,228,000 shares.

Update, 2:50pm EDT, 5/2/05 We now are ready to say that awards could come early next week or even this Saturday, based on the Lusa news agency report which, however, is not specific as to any dates. We very much appreciate the valuable input of muktawdadi and Homeport. The price is $0.79, the Bid $0.785, and the Ask $0.79 as volume reaches 1,217,000 shares.

Update, 2:38pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price is $0.79, with the Bid at $0.78 and the Ask at $0.79 as volume climbs to 1,214,500. Sao Tome oil minister's report of "difficulties" at the JMC meeting bears out this blog's much-derided statements regarding same.

Update, 2:38pm EDT, 5/2/05 A very useful Comment from regular ERHC On The Move reader Homeport:

Portuguese Lusa news agency reporting ex-Sao Tome that islands' nat'l oil council will meet "this week" to "analyze proposals" and "take decisions" based on outcome of Abuja JMC meet.

The agency cites STP Natural Resources Minister Arlindo de Carvalho as also telling journalists, on his return from Nigeria, that despite unspecified "difficulties" in the Abuja meet last week, there were no "irregularities" in the process.

De Carvalho denied local media reports that some bidders had been sidelined in favor of less capable firms with STP shareholders.

He said no one had been sidelined in the process and that "blocs have been distributed" on the basis of financial proposals and technical capacity.

Looks like we may have some solid results announced in very near future.

Bests

By Homeport, at 1:58 PM

Update, 2:30pm EDT, 5/2/05 With 45 minutes to go to the 3:15 surge, the price is better at $0.79, the Ask, while the Bid is at $0.785 and volume's climbed to 1,207,500 shares.

Update, 2:11pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price has slipped to $0.785, off $0.035 for the day, while the Bid is $0.785 and the Ask is $0.785. Volume is 1,168,500 shares. Rancho20008, a sharp-eyed RB poster, notes that there is a difference in the spelling of the names mutwadadi and muktawdadi, who this time has also put his name in single quotes. I think the reason is that he forgot how he spelled the name he used back in March, which he has only used once before.

Update, 1:44pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price improves to $0.79, the Ask, while the Bid remains at $0.88 with 2:15 left to go in the day. Volume is now 1,081,100 shares.

Update, 1:40pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price is $0.781, a tenth of a cent better, on volume that is unchanged. The Ask stays at $0.79.

Update, 1:36pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price is lower at $0.781, the Bid is at $0.78, and the Ask remains unchanged at $0.79 on 1,073,600 shares.

Will Bush and Obasanjo kiss and hold hands? He may have more oil than Abdullah!

Update, 1:33pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price has slipped to $0.79, the Bid to $0.781, and the Ask to $0.79. Volume climbing steadily to 1,053,600.

Update, 1:30pm EDT, 5/2/05 We have received a Comment from muktawdadi, who was the only source in Africa to warn us the ExxonMobil deadline would be extended. He says now that the awards date is Wednesday, and we find this believable, although that may also be when Obasanjo departs for Washington for Thursday's meeting with President Bush. Once again, we're grateful to muktawdadi for the valuable tip. Here it is:

menezes is not in abuja today. we are expecting him on wednesday. the trip was scheduled some time ago. obasanjo has already signed off on the jmc's recommendations. not everyone is happy in sao tome, but if their national oil commission approves the proposed awards, pioneer will be awarded operatorship in block 2, anadarko in block 3 and noble in block 4. but nothing has been announced and there is still a little way to go.

'mutwadadi'

Update, 1:07pm EDT, 5/2/05 President Bush told a price-weary soldier who asked him to reduce gas prices that he couldn't do it, but his brother, Gov. Jeff Bush of Florida, did it with no problem last year when prices topped $2 a gallon here. Gov. Jeb Bush simply suspended collection of about $0.25 in state taxes on gas for two months, giving all Floridians a break. Taxes make up $0.52 of the current gas price.

Volume, Bid, price and Ask are unchanged at 1:07pm EDT.

Update, 1pm EDT, 5/2/05 With President Bush holding hands and making kissy-poo with Prince Abdullah as they tiptoe through his bluebonnets, and Laura Bush declaring "I am a desperate housewife," fake white House reporter and gay prostitute Jeff Gannon's overnight stays at the White House take on new meaning. Where's Matt Drudge when we need him?

The Bid and Ask are $0.79 x $0.80, the price $0.79, and volume is 1,0156,700.

Update, 12:54pm EDT, 5/2/05 The notoriously errant SwingingK has posted a new update, which is handed to you as a girly-man heads a dead fish to her butcher:

******UPDATE*******

Osabanjo & Menenez are behind closed doors as we speak. There are a number of media waiting to anounce the results of round 2. Word is Osabanjo has been quoted "This auction is commenced & the results will be of Public record. We look forward to Launching the Auction of our EEZ".
Menenez & Osabanjo are scheduled to work thru dinner...
No major issues left to resolve just crossing the T's & dotting the eyes..

One issue for SwingingK to resolve is the spelling of President Fradique de Menezes' name. After all, he's signing the check - we hope. The price has slipped to $0.79, while the Bid and Ask are unchanged and volume moves up 3K to 1,010,900. We don't know why they're dotting their "eyes" unless they're laughing at him so hard they're crying.

Update, 12:46pm EDT, 5/2/05 Volume has topped 1 million before 1pm, a hopeful sign. The price is still $0.80, with Bid and Ask unchanged and volume 1,007,400.

Update, 12:39pm EDT, 5/2/05 The Ask jumps to $0.81 as the price stays at $0.80 and the Ask moves up tp $0.80. Volume is 983,027.

Update, 12:37pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price is back to $0.80, the Ask, while the Bid goes to $0.79. Volume has climbed 7K to 980,027.

Update, 12:35pm EDT, 5/2/05 Good news on the buying front, as Buys climb closer to Sells, with 246 trades at 12:15am. Buys lag Sells just 415,750 to 441,809 and 89,968 are unidentified. The price remains $0.785 at 12:34am EDT, with the Bid and Ask unchanged at $0.785 x $0.80 and volume unchanged.

Update, 12:29pm EDT, 5/2/05 All unchanged.

Update, 12:25pm EDT, 5/2/05 Price is $0.785 and Ask is unchanged at $0.80 as Bid slips to $0.785. Volume ticks up to 963,027. Looks like the rally we saw from this morning's low of $0.76 has lost steam with the absence of an awards announcement from Abuja by 5pm Nigerian time.

Update, 12:22pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price slips to $0.79 while the volume climbs 5K to 958,027 and the Bid and Ask are $0.79 x $0.80.

Update, 12:20pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price moves up to $0.80, the Ask again, while the Bid stays at $0.79 on slightly improved volume of 953,027.

Update, 12:17pm EDT, 5/2/05 The price slips to $0.79, off $0.03, on 951,027 shares, while the Ask is at $0.80.

Update, 12:15am EDT, 5/2/05 Volume reaches 943,527, while the price is at $0.80 and the Bid is also at $0.79, while the Ask is $0.80. The Buy and Sell volume on ADVFN at 10:58 was Buys 365,050 and Sells 425,009, with 89,968 shares unidentified, indicating a significant gain in Buys in the past half hour.

Update, 12:06pm EDT, 5/2/05 Volume is 934,327, with the price at $0.81 and the Bid at $0.795. The Ask is impproved at $0.81. The close of business in Abuja has produced no awards. Indications are the JMC has gone home and no awards are coming today. Please join our protest of the endless delays that have wrecked our hopes for a stronger share price. See "Awards Protest Mounted" post below for contact details.

Update, 11:59am EDT, 5/2/05 At the noon hour, the price slips to $0.79 on 880,027 shares, while the Bid and Ask are $0.79 x $0.80.

Update, 11:55am EDT, 5/2/05 We were misled on the President de Menezes trip to Abuja. That news, attributed to Ruby1100 and others by our source, ArtK4K, supposedly occurred on Friday. Obviously, it was a false alarm.

Update, 11:53am EDT, 5/2/05 Volume is 870,027 as the pirce remains at $0.80 and the Ask and Bid stay unchanged.

Update, 11:50am EDT, 5/2/05 The price is back to the high of the day, $.80, on climbing volume of 866,327, while the Bid and Ask are $0.79 x $0.80.

Update, 11:45am EDT, 5/2/05 Gay prostitute Jeff Gannon's overnight stays at the White House are arousing attention on several sites. The price has dropped to $0.79, while the Ask has improved to $0.80 and the Bid stays at $0.79 and volume jumps to 852,327.

Update, 11:43am EDT, 5/2/05 Volume has climbed to 832,327 as the price, Bid and Ask remain unchanged.

Update, 11:37am EDT, 5/2/05 The price has moved to the Ask, $0.794, on 818,827 shares, while the Bid stays at $0.79.

Update, 11:36am EDT, 5/2/05 Volume is 816,827 while Bid, Ask and price remain unchanged.

Update, 11:32am EDT, 5/2/05 The volume is up 5K to 813,327, while the price is $0.79, the improved Bid, and the Ask has slipped to $0.794.

Update, 11:27am EDT, 5/2/05 All unchanged. This weekend marked the first time ERHC On The Move had more than 1,000 readers on both Saturday and Sunday. We're enjoying record readership and modest ad support, although there have been only 7 clicks today from the first 745 readers, a clickthrough rate of 0.9 percent with earnings of $0.55. Hardly seems worth it.

Update, 11:24am EDT, 5/2/05 The Bid is lower at $0.785, while the Ask slips to $0.795, and the price is $0.79 on volume of 808,215 shares. As of 15 minutes ago, the unidentified shares made up the almost all of the difference between the Buy and Sell volume, and would bring them even for the first time today if all were Buys.

Update, 11:21am EDT, 5/2/05 All unchanged.

Update, 11:17am EDT, 5/2/05 On ADVFN's 15-minute delay, at 10:58am EDT, Buy volume was 274,438 to Sell volume of 359,315, with 82,680 shares unidentified. The price has slipped at 11:17am EDT to $0.79, the Ask to $0.795, while the Bid is lower at $0.78 on volume of 806,639 shares.

Update, 11:13am EDT, 5/2/05 My wife had been after me to sell, but now, with the price down and awards slow in coming, she counsels "Patience, patience." I love her. All is unchanged since 11:08.

Update, 11:11am EDT, 5/2/05 Bid, Ask, price and volume unchanged.

Update, 11:08am EDT, 5/2/05 We're back to $0.80, the high of the day but still $0.02 below Friday's close. The Bid is $0.79 and the Ask $0.80. Volume is 792,639 shares.

Update, 11:04am EDT, 5/2/05 The price is back to $0.79, which is now the Biod and the Ask, on volume of 752,633 shares.

Update, 11:02am EDT, 5/2/05 The Bid and price went to $0.781 momentarily and fell back to $0.78, and then the Bid jumped to $0.79, the Ask, on 747,633 shares.

Update, 11am EDT, 5/2/05) ON ADVFN's 15-minute delay, Buy volume is 229,038 to Sell volume of 355,815 with 63,680 unidentified shares in 164 trades.

At 11am EDT, the Bidf has moved up to $0.781, and the Ask to $0.79, while the price is still at $0.78 and volume reaches 716,433 shares.

Update, 10:55am EDT, 5/2/05 The Bid is higher at $0.775, and the Ask stays at $0.78 as volume reaches 697,433 shares.

Update, 10:54am EDT, 5/2/05 Big tick on volume to 892,433, as price, Bid and Ask remain unchanged.

Update, 10:52am EDT, 5/2/05 The Bid moves up a tenth of a cent to $0.771, while the price stays at $0.78 and volume, too, remains unchanged.

Update, 10:50am EDT, 5/2/05 All unchanged.

Update, 10:48am EDT, 5/2/05 The Bid slips to $0.77 while the Ask is at $0.78, the price, on volume of 657,933 shares.

Update, 10:47am EDT, 5/2/05 With volume at 651,033, the Bid is $0.77, the Ask $0.78 and the price $0.78. kobiashi has some good advice for shareholders on the RB board:

If you bought at .80 and you want to take a minimal loss, or you bought at .72 and take a minimal profit, then that's a great strategy if it lets you sleep well at night. However, if I had a stop loss at .76 and the shares I bought in the .20s, .30s, .40s, .50s, and .60s got taken away from me in some bs-manipulated trading swings I'd be very upset. So in ERHC I don't use stop losses because, frankly, I don't plan on selling anytime soon, either.

Update, 10:38am EDT, 5/2/05) We're back to $0.78, the Ask; Bid and volume remain unchanged.

Update, 10:37am EDT, 5/2/05 The price slips back to $0.77, the Bid, while the Ask falls to $0.78 and volume hits 645,233 as it picks up once more.

Update, 10:34am EDT, 5/2/05 Late word via a friend from Norval Scott of the Dow Jones News Service in London that Sao Tome President Fradique de Menezes is headed to Abuja to meet with President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is reportedly anxious to finalize the awards. Presdent Obasanjo is preparing for his meeting in Washington with President Bush on Thursday. We believe it takes two Presidents to declare the bid winners, so the purpose of the de Menezes visit may be to make the formal announcement of winners.

Update, 10:28am EDT, 5/2/05 The price is to $0.78, under the high of the day. The Bid and Ask are unchanged at $0.78 x $0.79 as volume goes to 601,653.

Update, 10:23am EDT, 5/2/05 The volume nears 600K, at 595,453, as the price slips to $0.78, the Bid, and the Ask stays at $0.79.

Update, 10:22am EDT, 5/2/05 The price hits the high of the day, $0.79, as the Bid stays at $0.785 and the Ask goes to $0.79 on 592,953 shares of volume.

Update, 10:18am EDT, 5/2/05 The Bid ticks up to $0.785 and the Ask is the same, unchanged, as volume is unchanged.

Update, 10:16am EDT, 5/2/05 Now we're at $0.785, the high of the day, as volume moves up 5K to 558,359 and the Ask sticks at $0.785. The Bid is $0.78.

Update, 10:14am EDT, 5/2/05 Ask ticks up to $0.785 and Bid to $0.78, as the price stays at $0.78 and volume hits 553,859.

Update, 10:12am EDT, 5/2/05 Price ticks up to $0.78 and volume to 548,859, with the Bid still at $0.77 and the Ask at $0.78.

Update, 10:11am EDT, 5/2/05 Volume, Bid, Ask and $0.77 price remains unchanged as volume again slows down.

Update, 10:10am EDT, 5/2/05 Volume is moving again, now to 537,340, with the price up to $0.77, the Bid, off $0.05, and the Ask still at $0.78. Depression is setting in on the Raging Bull ERHE message board.

Update, 10am EDT, 5/2/05 Half an hour into the day there is no award news from Abuja and ERHE is off 7.2 percent, or $0.059, with the price at $0.761; the Bid is higher at $0.77, and the Ask at $0.78 with volume unchanged since 9:58.

Update, 9:58am EDT, 5/2/05 The price moves up a tenth of a cent to $0.761 but the Ask has moved back to $0.78. Volume is unchanged.

Update, 9:58am EDT, 5/2/05 Our prices are current to the second, but Buys and Sells data is delayed 15 minutes from ADVFN, one of our advertisers. At 9:40am EDT, Buys were 127,525 to 239,835 with 13,300 shares unidentified in 92 trades. At 9:58, the price is $0.761, off $0.058, on 513,690 shares of volume.

Update, 9:54am EDT, 5/2/05 The share price is down to $0.76, the new Bid, while the Ask falls to $0.765, the Ask, on 473,360 shares as volume ticks up again.

Update, 9:52am EDT, 5/2/05 The share price is $0.78 asgain, and the Bid has moved back up to $0.78, on volume of 419,060, with a significant slowing of the sell-off discernible.

Update, 9:46am EDT, 5/2/05 The share price is now at its low for the day, $0.76, the Bid, while the Ask remains at $0.78 on volume of 396,160 shares.

Update, 9:44am EDT, 5/2/05 Selloff volume has slowed to a trickle, and is now at 386,160, with the share price at $0.78 and the Bid down to $0.76, while the Ask remains $0.78.

Update, 9:41am EDT, 5/2/05) The price claws back to $0.78, the Ask, and the Bid moves up to $0.77 on 380,660 shares of volume.

Update, 9:40am EDT, 5/2/05 The price up half a cent to $0.765, the Ask; the Bid remains at $0.76. Volume is 342,860 shares.
Update, 9:39am EDT, 5/2/05 The price is $0.76, the Bid, as the Ask falls from the opening price, $0.785, to $0.765, on early volume of 282,660 shares in the first eight nminutes.