There is also a new report from Platts Oil, one of the world's most reliable sources of information on the energy industry. The new item in the Platts story is that Sao Tome officials had told the paper the awards could be delayed "two months." That news was never reported in anything we've ever seen. It appears below the Trading Updates.
Update, 5/24/05, 4:25pm EDT: Buys narrowly edged out Sells today in 132 trades, with 328,337 to 320,694 and 12,500 unidentified shares there to make the difference. For the first time in a while, trading closed at 5:57:04, about three minutes ahead of the bell. All of this points to a balance of expectations that is very near even. In the final few minutes ERHE traded more Buys than sells, but the last big trade was a 22,500 sell. The blue flag was apparently a pumper's trick - no news has appeared by 4:25pm EDT.
Update, 5/24/05, 4pm EDT: No news yet, although some on RB says a blue news flag is lit beside our symbol. Pumpers often say that to escape with an extra few cents in day trading. The price is $0.70, and volume has climbed - mostly in Sell volume - to 661,531 shares. The Bid is still $0.695 but the Ask has risen near the close to $0.703. Buys still lead Sells by about 13,000 shares today, per ADVFN on 15-minute delay. Of the last 41 trades recorded by ADVFN at 3:38pm EDT, 29 were Sells and 12 were Buys, with the Sells totalling 205,296 shares against Buys of just 59,385. It's hard to say if that was the sound of day traders exiting, margin calls falling or just a plain ol' sell-off. No news by 4:11 to back up that blue flag business.
Update, 5/24/05, 3:40pm EDT: Okay, we're back at $0.70, the Ask, on 617,581 shares of volume. The Bid is still $0.695.
Update, 5/24/05, 3:36pm EDT: I think "ironed out" may be the operative phrase about bid disputes. Let's see - hopefully soon.
Update, 5/24/05, 3:32pm EDT: We're at $0.685 again, and the Bid has improved to $0.695 while the Ask has risen to $0.70 on volume of 610,066 shares, a noticeable leap at last.
Update, 5/24/05, 3:29pm EDT: Volume is up a few thousand shares to 562,439, while the price is better at $0.69, the imporved Bid, with the Ask better at $0.695. I feel the JMC meeting could end quickly, even after just one meeting.
Update, 5/24/05, 3:26pm EDT: A 3K surge? I don't think so. Turns out the big trading after lunch was mostly due to a margin call that left oilman down 88,000 shares, he says. Meanwhile, it's 8:25pm EDT in Abuja: Do You know where your block awards are?
The price is $0.6810, the Bid, the Ask is at $0.69, and volume is 558,819 shares.
Update, 5/24/05, 3:11pm EDT: Buying has dominated trades today, although sellers have produced some volume in the past two hours. The ADVFN systen, reporting with a 15-minute delay, shows 295,752 Buys to 252,162 Sells with 7,500 undecided in a total of just 116 trades as of 2:47pm EDT.
Update, 5/24/05, 3:05pm EDT: I dreamed I invited a nun to lunch. Borrrrinnnnggg!
205 shares traded. The price has fallen to $0.6810, the Bid, and the Ask is at $0.69. The 3:15 Surge looks like a losing proposition.
Update, 5/24/05, 2:52pm EDT: Trading has livened up as I snoozed, but the price is just $0.69, the Ask, while the Bid has fallen to $0.681 and volume has reached 555,414 shares.
Update, 5/24/05, 1:59pm EDT: 2K more shares traded, bringing volume to 340,650, and the price to the current Ask, $0.699. The Bid stays at $0.695.
Update, 5/24/05, 1:56pm EDT: After an hour of inactivity, 11,500 shares have traded. The first was a 1K trade which dropped the price to $0.695, the current Bid, and the Ask to $0.699. The current price is also $0.695. Volume is 336,350.
Update, 5/24/05, 1:48pm EDT: There are 300 shares missing from the ADVFN count, but other than that, nothing at all has happened in a solid hour.
For those going to Sao Tome to celebrate their newfound fortunes, here is inside info on the drinking situation, from South Africa's daily Mail & Guardian:
In the postage-stamp-sized country of Sao Tome and Principe is an idyllic Garden of Eden island where you walk along a suspended bridge to get to the dining room on an even smaller island. Here both vodka and tonic are plentiful. Beer? Yup. Wine? Forget about it.
Update, 5/24/05, 1:31pm EDT: Nothing has changed in the past 40 minutes. Volume may finish at a record low for the month so far, unless news emerges from the JMC meeting if it breaks up before 9pm Abuja time (4pm in New York).
Update, 5/24/05, 12:51pm EDT: We're still at $0.70, and the volume, remains unchanged as well. The Bid is $0.69.
Update, 5/24/05, 12:51pm EDT: The price is $0.70 again, up a penny from yesterday's $0.69 close, and the Ask is slightly better at $0.70. Volume remains slow at 325,435, but most of the action remains definitively on the Buy side, with 212,152 Buys to 89,783 Sells in 67 trades as of 12:31 this afternoon.
Update, 5/24/05, 12:34pm EDT: The price is slightly improved to the Bid, $0.693, and the Ask remains at $0.695. Volume has only now reached 301,935, lagging far behind recent days.
Update, 5/24/05, 12:10pm EDT: On ADVFN 15-minute delay, the Buys are more than double Sells, 198,052 to 84,783 in just 62 trades (with none unidentified).
Update, 5/24/05, 12pm EDT: The volume is a mere 282,835 and the price remains at $0.69, with the Ask at $0.695. Trading is unusually static today, undoubtedbly because of the uncertainty associated with the reconvening of the JMC to revisit the block awards. We expect the meetings to be somewhat perfunctory and to ratify the original awards, possibly excepting the percentage to EEL.
Update, 5/24/05, 11:04am EDT: We would appreciate it if readers would forward us any reporting that suggests Arlindo Carvalho is an ERHE shareholder. We believe such comments are in error, and may have been confused with ERHE shareholder Mateus Meira Rita, another Sao Tome official who resigned from the JMC.
The price is $0.69, the Bid, and the Ask remains at $0.695, while volume is still low at 263,135 shares.
Update, 5/24/05, 11:31am EDT: The price is $0.695, the Ask, and the Bid remains $0.69 on continuing sluggish volume of 259,135 shares.
Update, 5/24/05, 10:15am EDT: An update from Abuja lets us know that the Sao Tome delegation has arrived for this evening's meeting of the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Ministerial Council. Thanks!
The price is $0.695, the Ask, and the Bid is at $0.69. Volume has reached a slow 229,895 shares.
Update, 5/24/05, 10:15am EDT: The price is $0.70, the Ask, and the Bid is close at $0.698, with volume of 184,250 in the first 45 minutes.
Here is the Platt's Oil report:
Nigeria, Sao Tome meet in Abuja to resolve block awards row
Paris (Platts) 24May2005 -- Nigerian and Sao Tome authorities plan to hold a meeting in Abuja later Tuesday to patch up frazzled relations between the two countries over the award of five oil blocks in a shared zone that is believed to hold up to 6-bil bbl of oil. "There is a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Council today in Abuja. At this stage, I don't know what the situation is in Sao Tome. Our only hope is that we can resolve the issues," Carlos Gomes, chairman of the Joint Development Authority, set up to manage the oil licensing round, told Platts.
Sao Tome authorities are unhappy with JDA's recommendations allocating various stakes in the blocks to several Nigerian indigenous companies, which they allege have close ties to the presidency, and have called for a review of the proposals. The JDA, according to Nigerian reports, awarded a 20% stake in the most-sought after Block 4 to Mike Adenuga's Conoil and a 5% interest to a company called Godsonic. Momo Oil and Gas picked up a 5% in Block 2, while Equinox Oil and Gas was awarded 10% in Block 3.
Nigeria's president Olusegun Obasanjo has endorsed JDA's recommendations, while his oil adviser Edmund Daukoru traveled to Sao Tome last Friday where he accused the country of "politicking with purely technical matters," the Nigerian ThisDay newspaper said. Gomes dismissed the claims by Sao Tome, adding that the JDA had followed the rules guiding the 2004 Licensing Round of the Joint Development Zone. "We have done our job at the JDA, the technical work has been done. It is now up to the ministerial meeting this afternoon," he said.
Daukoru, speaking to Platts before he left Abuja on Friday, said the JMC, made up of 12 members drawn from the two countries, had endorsed the recommendations as they stand and he was confident the awards would soon be announced. "If as a result of these political developments, they want to take a better look, I think our position would be to urge them not to delay too much," Daukoru said.
Senior Sao Tome officials last week said the announcement could be delayed by up to two months after Arlindo Carvalho resigned as natural resources ministry amid corruption allegations. The resignation came days after president Fradique de Menezes sacked oil adviser Patrice Trovoada, son of the Miguel Trovoada, a former head of state. Trovoada's Independent Democratic Action political party has nominated to prime minister Damiao Vaz d'Almeida both a geologist and a lawyer as a replacement for Carvalho.
Trovoada, whose party retains control of the petroleum and trade and industry sector under the nation's coalition government and who remains a powerful figure despite his
unexpected dismissal, last week told Platts that Sao Tomean authorities were hoping to get the process for awarding the blocks back on track but both legal and transparency issues had to be dealt with first. Under the terms of a treaty signed in 2002, Nigeria, which is already Africa's largest oil producer, will take 60% of all oil and gas revenues. Sao Tome will take 40%.
This story was first published in Platts real-time news and market reporting
service Global Alert - http://www.globalalert.platts.com
Here's the latest English-language report from Lusa, the Portuguese news agency that lately has been bashing ERHC Energy, but doesn't do so today:
24-05-2005 13:44:00.
Fonte LUSA.
NotÃcia SIR-7027360
Temas:
Sao Tome: Ministers in Abuja for talks on delayed oil-block allocation
Sao Tome, May 24 (Lusa) - A ministerial delegation leave Sao Tome and Principe Tuesday for two-way talks in Nigeria on the delayed process to allocate offshore oil exploration rights in the two countries` Joint Development Zone.
Natural Resources Minister Arlindo Carvalho told Lusa that a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Council has been requested by Sao Tome to review the awards of exploration rights to five offshore oil blocks in the delayed 2004 licensing round.
The talks in Nigeria will start later Tuesday, he added.
Carvalho, heading the Sao Tomean delegation, said he was traveling to Abuja with Foreign Minister Ovidio Pequeno, Defense Minister Oscar Sousa and Planning Minister Adelino Castelo David, in addition to an adviser of President Fradique de Menezes.
"We will review the whole process to dispel all the controversies that have surfaced in Sao Tome", said Carvalho, referring to a row that has erupted in the archipelago in recent weeks on how to allocate the handful of offshore oil blocks.
Last week Carvalho said he was exiting Sao Tome's government due to allegations of irregularities in the overdue block allocation, but President Menezes rejected his resignation Monday, saying the minister had "valuable knowledge" in the process.
Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo visited Sao Tome last weekend and expressed his displeasure at the hold ups in the awards of the offshore blocks.
Allegations of private oil interests of a number of senior Sao Tome officials emerged about a month ago and have already forced Menezes to sack his personal oil adviser and another presidential counselor.
Menezes also agreed to take a back seat on the country+s National Petroleum Council.
RCN/CJB.
Lusa
www.lusa.pt
27 comments:
the sao tome jmc delegation has arrived. the meeting should convene shortly.
FYI, LusaNews - www.lusa.pt -- carrying English-language stri with STP Oil Min Carvalho comments before departure to Abuja/JMC meet.
Bests,
Homeport, can we get the gist of his comments?
Joe
I meant his comments from the Portuguese report - sorry! We have posted the English-language report from Lusa already.
i take a few things away from the latest report about the 2 month delay:
1) it appears to be old because it mentions that carvahlo had resigned (now we know hes back in) which leads the story to say "2 months"
2) there is no directmention of ERHC holding up the process
therefore, i am still optimistic
Mike
I hadn't picked up on that timing, Mike - good catch!
Joe
You are right to question the issue of Carvalho's stock ownership in ERHC. I posted that earlier and was mistaken. I thought I had seen it written that he was, but upon further checking I do not find same. So, if you are referring to my post as being in error, you're probably correct.
So, the question then remains, why did he resign? A possible fall out with Travado would be a valid explaination, yes?
Above by SH70
Great - now there is talk of a 2 month delay, must always be a pleasure holding this POS! Let me make a prediction in the event of a 2 month delay. Price will drop to around .40, where it will sit until this all gets finished. Your rocketship after the awards - which I believe won't look anything like you all imagine for ERHE, will go to about .53!
Don't spend it all in one place!
Great DD here! LMAO
Signed - Fencesitter:)
Thanks, Anonymous at 1:27. A lot of people picked up on that factoid and repeated it, so I thought I'd better clear the record.
Fencesitter, above, don't get nervous. There will be no more delays after Memorial Day.
fencesitter is just one of the "doomsdayer's" who come on here to try and scare potentials. fact is, it hasnt worked... how many times have we heard .30 or .40 or target of .50. last time i checked, this stock has been holding even with no "official news". nice try
Mike
Joe,
I know you don't have a crystal ball, but do you think that the political turmoil and delays will affect the ERHC share price once awards are announced. Do the think that the stock has lost some fizzle for a major gain?
2:22 suspect a lot of worn out holders that will take gains quickly for stress relief, if nothing else - in this sense gains may slowly build over a period of days as "press" talks up the final awards - in the end though, this drawn out process and the current diminished "luster" of oil stks undoubtedly has taken a toll on the "pop top"
check out link... and click on "commentary" ... few days old but interesting insight
http://www.erhc.greatsprings.net/comm/
Mike
FYI at 2-3pm a 100+k margin call hit the market as a seller was over extended and the broker called the shares back
reason for the .70-.68 move
anonymous 3:15
Oh really? and tell me, how does one margin a penny stock? LMAO
3:15 poster, yeah, sounds unreal, but true. TDwaterhouse does allow it...
Joe - the news icon was true. I trade through Etrade and it came on about 10 minutes from the bell. I almost wet myself clicking on the button to see what it was. There was nothing new on etnrade under news. This happens quite a lot on etrade and sometimes the news is being reported somewhere else that etrade does not post for you. When this happens, I first check Yahoo Stocks for related news and then knobias for filings. There was none in either place.
but I did want you to know that the news icon definitely popped on for ERHE.
Thanks
I checked my E*Trade and there was no flag. Of course, they had the share price wrong, too, so I'm not sure that's the best guide.
Joe - do you use Market Pro with Etrade? There is a different - on that platform - the news icon went off. Not sure why I am coming to the defense of the boneheads from RB - but it did go off - regardless.
But who really cares - cause there WAS NO NEWS!~!~!!!
My number #1 pet peeve on the ERHE board.
The idiots that get all excited and post that their blue news icon went on.
Do you realize who stupid and amateurish you people look when you do that? That has to be the dumbest thing I have ever seen in my life. So just stop it.
You people act like you are in kindergarten.
What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow?
How do you know which media is reliable and which is not? No media in the world is reliable.
10:21, do you mean a European swallow or an African swallow?
Sao Tome/Nigeria to award oil blocks after delay
Wed May 25, 2005 8:28 AM GMT+02:00
By Felix Onuah
ABUJA (Reuters) - Sao Tome and Nigeria expect to make a final decision on the long-awaited award of oil exploration licences at a meeting in Nigeria that began on Tuesday night, a Sao Tome official said.
A five-month delay in awarding five licences, located in a highly prospective offshore region in the Gulf of Guinea which is jointly administered by the two countries, has raised questions over the integrity of the process, Nigeria said.
"We hope this meeting will conclude our decisions for the award of the oil blocks," said Sao Tome Minister of Natural Resources Arlindo Carvalho. "We could not achieve this in earlier meetings because when we went home after a deep analysis we came to the conclusion that some things needed to be done," he added, without saying what
While the quote from Carvalho seems promising take eeverything with a grain of salt.
The Sao Tomeans do not want to be perceived as the ones holding everything up. So by making this statement Carvalho is basically saying "we (Sao Tome) are ready to sign off on awards if the Nigerians agree to make some changes."
This comment might have been made to put the onus on Nigeria to make it look like they are the ones that are holding things up by not making changes.
Just trying to give a balanced look at the comment.
The quote from Carvalho seems unpromising to me... . It seems to promise problems and delays.
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