Meanwhile, a rumor is spreading that Prime Minister Vaz de Almeida, a member of the ruling MLSTP/PSD party coalition that opposes Present Fradique de Menezes, is planning to address the country about the current crisis.
The CIA analyst said offshore areas in the Gulf Of Guinea enjoy some insulation from the violence. Helima Croft, an analyst with the CIA, said "Offshore production could be Nigeria's 'salvation' because offshore platforms are harder to damage than their onshore counterparts," Reuters said.
The CIA's new director, former Florida Republican congressman Porter Goss, told a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing last fall that Nigeria's stability is a wild card. A post concerning that hearing is available in the ERHC On The Move archives at the lower right of this page.
The article was posted on Raging Bull's ERHE message board by larry113 just after the closing bell yesterday.
One interesting note about the article: in it, a "top geologist" working for ExxonMobil is said to have called the initial drilling by the company "disappointing."
"Recent drilling in Nigeria's new offshore oil exploration area, the focus of a big new licensing round, has been disappointing, a top geologist for ExxonMobil said last month," Reuters reported.
That sounds like the sour grapes one would expect of ExxonMobil, which has not done any drilling at all in the "new offshore oil exploration area" that "has been the focus of a big new licensing round."
The company has already decided not to drill in Block 1, former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria Howard Jeter "heard," he told ERHC On The Move earlier this month.
The sour-grapes comment, which is based on a lie as XOM has not yet done any drilling in the JDZ, makes it sounds like the rumor Jeter heard is based on fact.
Many presume the company is behind the all-out effort to embarrass President Fradique de Menezes that has led to three resignations - including de Menezes' own, as head of the National Petroleum Council - and a top-level firing in recent weeks.
At the same time, there is an all-out effort on Raging Bull by some posters to offend the Sao Tomean government and people with vulgar and insensitive comments about its poverty. Many of the most respected posters from the board have removed themselves or been removed and are now posting on IHUB, a moderated message board from which this reporter is barred for competitive reasons.
Here is the Reuters story:
CIA: Oil flow threatened ahead of Nigeria election
by Chris Baltimore
Mon May 16, 2005 03:18 PM ET
WASHINGTON, May 16 (Reuters) - Gang violence ahead of Nigeria's 2007 presidential election threatens to disrupt exports from Africa's biggest crude oil producer, an analyst with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency said on Monday.
Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo's second term ends in 2007, when he must leave the presidency, according to the constitution rewritten in 1999.
That election will be "very contentious" and could bring a repeat of violence and attacks against Western-owned oil installations that marked the run-up to the 2003 election, said Helima Croft, an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency.
"There are few signs that the region will be more stable in the near-term," Croft said at an event sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, where she is a fellow.
Unrest in Nigeria, the world's eighth largest exporter, has been one of the many factors that have kept global oil market traders on edge, along with violence in war-torn Iraq and rampant demand in China and India.
Nigeria is an OPEC member and the fifth biggest foreign oil supplier to the U.S. market, shipping an average 1 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Department.
Obasanjo's election in 1999 spelled the end of 15 years of military rule in the poverty-stricken nation.
But Nigeria under nonmilitary rule has been marred by violence in the nation's oil-rich Niger Delta region, including sabotage and seizure of oil facilities.
"You have a growing criminal element in the oil producing regions," said Croft, pointing to gangs armed with automatic weapons and portable missile-launchers. "There are few signs this criminal enterprise will go away any time soon."
At the depth of the 2003 crisis, 40 percent of the country's output of more than two million bpd was shut.
U.S.-based Chevron (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was by far the worst hit and 30 percent of its former production is still shut because of extensive vandalism.
Offshore production could be Nigeria's "salvation" because offshore platforms are harder to damage than their onshore counterparts, Croft said.
Recent drilling in Nigeria's new offshore oil exploration area, the focus of a big new licensing round, has been disappointing, a top geologist for ExxonMobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said last month.
Nigeria is one of the few members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to have fully opened its oil reserves to the private sector. It aims to increase output from 2.5 to 4.0 million barrels daily by 2010.
24 comments:
I know what kind of response from people you want.
You intentionally put wrong headline to illicit certain kind of response.
I've read this and other boards over the past several weeks in an attempt at getting this newcomer up to speed. Come to find out how the most concerned folk, for altruistic reasons only of course, about things such as Sao Tomanese sensibilities are the most rotten otherwise.
As much as my heart goes out to those miserably poor people, I feel that their gov't owes them a debt for irreparable damages that can never be paid.
So, as for others that stand on a soap-box of convenience, at best and for nothing of substance at worst, 'Get off it!'
It seems the later in the night it gets, the more blunt the weapon. A little too much of something to dull the senses perhaps?
today Parliament will clash, and all hell will break out. lol
The president of the republic, Fradique of Menezes, resigned this end of week the presidency of the National Advice of the Oil (CNP), because of the polémica that was installed to the return of the dossier.
The decision of the leader of state, was placarded to the press after more of 11 hours of Advice.
“It is good that I is remote and exercise my paper as the president of the republic for that when the things will arrive to me I can fiscalize and do not participate directamente like I have done so far. Is worth highlight also and doubtless, that the president of the republic should not be snobbish in these questions of the negotiations” argued Fradique of Menezes.
Face to the polémica installed to the return of the dossier, the National Advice of the Oil analyzed exhaustively the trial of adjudicação of the blocks 2 to the 6 of the second auction of the zone of sobreposição of borders between Saint Tomé and Prince and the Nigeria, for afterwards say that the interests of the archipelago in no moment were damaged.
Second the Minister of the Business Foreigners and Cooperation, Ovídeo Small, “THE National Advice of the Oil recognizes with foundation in the opinion of the Agency of the Oil (ANP), that had insuficiências formal and of procedures in the trial of adjudicação, although the same have not addict the results”, guaranteed the minister.
But, the departure Independent Democratic Action (ADI), one of the political forces that maintain the executive of Damião Vaz d' Almeida, does a grossly peculiar reading, and notify that is going to request an international audit.
“We are not agreement with what was said in the Advice and by that we are going to remit this question to the Wednesday Commission of the Assembleia National for that she is pronounced since the matter is also now political and we are going to ask an international audit for we will know itself had or not damages by not itself to have respected the rules of the contest”, advocated Patrice Thunderstorm, General Secretary of the.
It see we go, the outcome of a polémica that hard already there is more of two weeks and that earns to each day new contours.
Parliament will clash. sorry it seems to be tomorrow, D day I`d say.
good luck.
Those that are bashing Sao Tome on RB are probably not true ERHE longs. They are probably planted bashers in the hopes of tilting awards away from ERHE.
Yes. That person who is bashing Sao Tome is probably not an ERHE shareholder.
He is probably a paid basher. He is paid to act like an ERHE shareholder and insult anyone and anything involved in the process in hopes of making ERHE look bad.
He is probably the one responsible for having the longs kicked off.
He is a wolf in sheeps clothing. Dont trust this guy. He posts 24 hours a day also.
Thanks for mentioning the "vulgar and insensitive" posts on the RB Board. I hope it is the reason why some posters were removed.
Well unfortunately the one person most responsible for the "vulgar and insensititive" posts on RB has not been removed.
Hopefully he will be shortly.
In my opinion that person responsible for the vulgar and insensitive posts is not really a true ERHE long. In my opinion he is a paid basher who is pretending to be a ERHE shareholder but really isnt.
He is purposely being vulgar and insesitive in the hopes of angering Sao Tomean officials and thus hurting ERHE's chances for block awards.
So in my opinion he is probably a paid basher from another company in the process who is designed to try and make all ERHE shareholders look bad.
He is also the one who is probably responsible for having many of the "true" ERHE longs tossed from raging bull. That is why he posts all day. Because he is monitoring the board. He is much worse than Mongo IMO.
He is a wolf in sheeps clothing and should be tossed.
Who is the RB poster of these vulgar comments
So parliament is supposed to meet today? Or are they meeting tomorrow?
What exactly is their role in this process? It sounds as if they along with the National Petroleum Council still have to approve the block awards.
The spokesman from the National Petroleum Council seemed to indicate that they would go ahead with the approval. But have they yet?
And then we need the Parliament to sign off as well?
And then what?
IMO it is ridiculous that this many entities are involved in the decision making process. This could take forever.
The heads of state should be making the decision. Not every single political entity in Sao Tome.
Meanwhile, 26 different oil companies wait. Frustration mounts. Resources are tied up.
The Sao Tome EEZ and Nigerian EEZ are pushed back further. The credibility of both countries and both EEZ's diminishes. The interest in both EEZ diminishes.
Permanent damage is being done to both countries that will seriously hamper their ability to draw interest in future licensing rounds.
They are only hurting themselves.
The National Advice of the Oil, in his meeting of 13 of May of 2005 analyzed exhaustively the trial of adjudicação of the blocks 2,3,4,5 and 6 of the Monday and to more recent auction of the zone of joint exploitation between the Republica Democratic of S.Tomé and Prince and the Federal Republic of the Nigeria, having concluded that:
1- HIM it Referred trial of adjudicação of the blocks proposed, in no moment damages the interests of the State Santomense;
2- THE National Advice of the Oil recognizes with foundation in the opinion of the National Agency of the Oil that had insuficiências formal and of procedures in the trial of adjudicação, although the same have not addict the results;
3- In That trial of adjudicação of the blocks, the question of the ERHC did not have any influence in the proposals, having in count the rights already acquired by that company in based on the agreement negotiated in 2001 and renegociado in 2003;
4- Becoming necessary give it know to the others organs of sovereignty the details about him referred trial, is created a commission constituted by members Santomenses of the Joint Ministerial Advice, the Director of the National Agency of the Oil and the President of the Advice of Administration of the Joint Authority, for joined of the Commission Specialized of the Assembleia national clear all of the details relatives to the adjudicação
5- After those explanations, the National Advice of the Oil, insta the members santomenses of the Joint Ministerial Advice, it the diligence having in mind will proceed the conclusion of the trial of adjudicação of him referred blocks;
6- THE National Advice of the Oil, joint to his voice to the other voices of the Country, in vehement appeal to the serenity and to the calm, in the abordagem of all the questions regarding the dossier oil, abstaining each one of the practical one of blameworthy behaviors;
7- THE National Advice of the Oil, reiterates a time more the excellence of the relations of friendship and of existing cooperation in the several domains between the Democratic Republic of S.Tomé and Prince and the Federal Republic of the Nigeria.
Joe,
Please show me one sentence in the article about Exxon that references the JDZ. There has been no drilling in the JDZ by anyone, so this comment cannot be shown to reference that zone. The comment references the Nigerian EEZ.
So, you not only missed this point but use go further to use bad information to support the statement by Jeter about Exxon pulling out of B1.
According to the story I sent you yesterday, the Sig Bonus in B1 has been paid. Exxon's PR will tell you they are working on a drilling plan. Yet, you choose to take the position they are out.
Is that what you really believe? That is a very strong statement and should NOT be told without absolute certainty.
Are you "making headlines" again or have you made an absolute determination that Exxon is out?
SH70
Joe,
Any knowledge of GWB's investments in oil companies, past or present?
Joe the Gog is still high on prospects but there have been some dissapointing wells lately.
Joe,
That is the main reason why I stopped reading RB. I couldn't stand reading some of the extremely vulgar, insensitive, and I feel racist remarks from people who are really clueless about STP's history, culture, and our politics in that part of the world. As someone who is closely associated with Sao Tomeans via marriage, I am offended by stupid comments that Emeka Offor/Nigeria has done alot for STP, and they should be "grateful". Not a chance would they be grateful to someone who will be stuffing millions in his pocket off the backs of STP people for years to come. I'm offended by remarks that STP is "not Nigeria's equal". I hope not because Nigeria's history of corruption, rebellions, murderous rampages is something STP has and never will be equal to. STP was a peaceful country until the issue of oil was forced upon it by an ignorant and and selfish Miguel Trovoada and ERHC. I want STP to get its house in order and propser as much as anyone interested here, especially since I have more interest than just an outsider looking in. Many of you people are so unintelligent and short sighted. This is the reason the US is running out of the MidEast because they screwed there and now the terrorist are running them out. With the way things are going in West Africa the US will be in the same predicament there also. For all the ignorant comments about how STP is suffering, we are the only country who have a semblance of democracy in West Africa and it should be praised. Where else in that region would you see the Presidency being challenged, and trade unions making demands, and government officials being held accountable for wrong actions? You'll get your awards soon enough, but in the meantime please respect our dignity!
Wow, anonymous @ 9:54 you have a very ignorant view of the U.S. In case you haven't noticed, democracy is on the rise in the Middle East thanks to the U.S. And we're being ran out? That's amazing, because I was under the impression that we just re-established an embassy in Afghanistan and are building permanant bases in Iraq. Doesn't sound like running to me.
You sound very foreign or very liberal...either way, a very uninformed point of view from someone who's complaining about people being unintelligent
-Ken
Well 10:26am, I think it's too soon to say that democracy is on the rise in Afghanistan just because they had election. Time will tell. Also, if you haven't heard, US is still in a state of war with Iraq with no sign of things getting better to the point of pulling out troops anytime soon. Building a permanent base? That doesn't sound like democracy being on the rise? If you consider someone who can see beyond their own unimportant little life as being foreign for liberal, than yes I'm both.
Considering I'm writing from Baghdad, I think I'm probably more well informed than you on the state of war here in Iraq. I also have first-hand knowledge from the Iraqis I talk to that the situation is improving. They're very excited about having a new, democratically elected government instead of a dictator responsible for attrocities. I think they found another of his mass graves yesterday, by the way.
Also in regards to Iraq, I was serving in the Marine Corps in 2003 and participated in the liberation of this country. Iraqis were hugging me, thanking me, and cheered us on all the way to Baghdad. Granted, they will be glad to see our presence here diminished (just as much as we'll be glad to leave) but that doesn't mean they're not thankful. If you don't believe the majority of Iraqis are happy the US got involved, it's probably because you are watching too much TV and have not been here yourself.
Afghanistan - You're right, an election alone does not define a democracy. However, I'd say it's a step up from the Taliban's rule there. Are you familiar with them? Obviously not.
You may be qualified to speak about Sao Tome "because you are married to someone from there" but I think you're severely misguided and not qualified at all to deliver a rational argument about Iraq or the Middle East for that matter
-Ken
i wonder who would care to bid in the EEZ after this sharade. these guys are toast. even before they know if there is any oil. frankly, they deserve to be poor.
imho.
For the guy in Baghdad, if you are really there. I hope you make it back in one piece to see the fruits of your labor. Quick,go get some more insurgents!
STP Man,
Dont judge all posters based on the comments of a few idiots. I agree the comments on RB have been vulgar, embarrasing and uncalled for. For all you know that person might be a basher who is pretending to be long on ERHE so he can give all longs a bad name.
Having said that I strongly disagree with your comments regarding Emeka Offor and oil etc etc. Sao Tome will be much better off in the long run after oil is actually pumping. The whole country will prosper. So it is very short sighted to say that "oil" and ERHC has been bad for Sao Tome.
Once the revenues start coming in Sao Tome will be much better off on in the long run. Obviously in the short run things are scandalous and chaotic. Sao Tomans should be appreciative of ERHC bringing in Western Geco, Exxon, and getting this whole ball rolling. Instead they act scandalous and corrupt and are only giving one side of the story.
Even the world bank agreed that ERHC/Noble offered a better offer then Anadarko. The opposition party is just trying to create chaos for their own self interests and are not looking out for the good of the people.
So in sum, I agree with you on the vulgarity, profanity and insensitive remarks. They are uncalled for and dont represent most people. Dont let a few idiots cloud your judgement. But I disagree on your overall assessment of the situation.
P.S. Ken thanks for all of your input.
Ken,
Thoughful words appreciated! But, who said I was a man?
Awards will happen very soon. STP is just as anxious to start getting the money as US investors are to see sp growing.
Obrigado!
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