Trading Updates: Confusion Tests Investor Patience; Price Falls to $0.68, Rebounds; Obasano Visit With Bush Is Tomorrow

There is a Comment under my last post that is so well-taken I thought it would share it here, as trading opens on yet another day of waiting for a decision on block awards by the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Authority. I don't know the author as he posted anonymously, but I certainly appreciate his point of view:

These two countries are making a serious miscalculation by allowing this award process to drag on like it has.

What company would bother to waste valuable time and resources bidding on blocks in the respective EEZ's when the whole JDZ award process has been such a circus?

Sao Tome and Nigeria are only hurting themselves. I am sure the companies involved in this process are absolutely besides themselves with anger as deadline after deadline passes with no conclusion.

What if they decide to do a rebid and the price of oil drops to $35 a barrel? Then the bids they see now will not be their again. And either will the interest by respectable oil companies.

They better get this thing done soon or both EEZ's and the JDZ's will be harmed permanently. I think Nigeria is already seeing that with their own EEZ. Nobody is interested.

Gee, I wonder why?

And now for our Trading Updates.

Update, 4:01pm EDT, 5/4/05 Better get on the horn to Washington pretty quick if you want to see some awards this year, investors. The list of phone numbers and contacts is in the post eight or nine down from this one, beginning with the words "Awards Protest Mounted... ." You can reach it from the Archives list at the right of the page.

Update, 4pm EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.65 at the close, with the Bid at $0.66, on volume of 1,279,000 shares - a huge selloff in the last three or four minutes.

Update, 3:58pm EDT, 5/4/05 The Bid drops to $0.66 and the Ask to $0.675, as the price hits $0.66 near the close on volume of 1,196,900.

Update, 3:57pm EDT, 5/4/05 A sharp drop now to $0.67, the Bid, as the Ask falls to $0.68. Volume is 1,170,200, a sharp jump in the past minute.
Update, 3:55pm EDT, 5/4/05 The price is dropping to $0.69, the Bid, as the Ask falls to $0.69 and the Bid to $0.68 on volume of 1,099,300 shares.

Update, 3:30pm EDT, 5/4/05 With just 18 minutes to go, volume stumbles past the 1 million mark to 1,016,400. The price and Bid are at $0.70 as the Ask remains at $0.709.

Update, 3:30pm EDT, 5/4/05 It's 8:25 in Abuja: Do you know where the JDZ awards are? No press release yet on the JDA site. The price remains $0.70, while the bid inches up a half-cent to $0.695 and the Ask moves high er to $0.709. Volume is unchanged.
Update, 3:25pm EDT, 5/4/05 Volume closes in on 1 million, standing at 980,065 with 35 minutes to go. Price, Bid and Ask are unchanged.

Update, 3:19pm EDT, 5/4/05 Volume leaps to 968,965 as the 3:15 Surge hits. The Bid drops to $0.69, while the price remains at the AsK, $0.70.

Update, 3:14pm EDT, 5/4/05 I left a lengthy message for David Sager, an economics writer for the New York Times Washington Bureau about the delay in awards. Meanwhile, the price has slipped a half cent to $0.695, the Bid, and the Ask remains at $0.70 as the volume moves slowly higher to 882,765 as the 3:15 Surge is just seconds away.
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Update, 2:47pm EDT, 5/4/05 Peter Wallsten of the Los Angeles Times was very gracious in listening to our "legitimate question" on President Obasanjo's search for debt relief even as the Joint Development Zone awards process goes into its second year of delays. He is going on the press plane tomorrow night to be with President Bush in Russia on Friday, but said he would share our concern with his colleagues. The price is $0.70, as it has been almost all day since the opening, while the Bid is back to $0.695 and the Ask to $0.70 on volume of 880,165 shares just a half hour from the 3:15 Surge.

Update, 2:15pm EDT, 5/4/05 I left a long mesage with Houston Chronicle White House correspondent Bennett Roth (202-263-4652) about the Obasanjo visit tomorrow, hoping he will ask about the awards at the press availability with President Bush. I learned from a great staffer at the Subcommittee on Africa (who used to work for former Ambassador Howard Jeter) that President Obasanjo is headed to Atlanta and will be back in Washington on Saturday for a dinner honoring former Secretary of State Colin Powell. I've also invited former Ambassador Howard Jeter to join us on the ERHC On The Move PalTalk board while Presdent Obasanjo is in the country. Meanwhile, the Bid has climbed to $0.70 and the Ask to $0.705 as volume reaches 865,865. The price remains at $0.70.

Update, 1:27pm EDT, 5/4/05 The price is unchanged but the Bid has inched back up to $0.695 as volume climbs to 798,865. I have provided new numbers for the NY Times (202-862-0314) and the Associated Press (202-776-9400), and left a message for Cindy Courville in the African Affairs office of the National Security Council at the White House (202-456-1414). The New York Times' White House Correspondent Elizabeth Beaumiller's phone has rung more than 50 times, but no answer. Next I will call the Congressmen meeting today with the Sao Tome Prime Minister, who is seeking debt relief. Signing the awards would bring him several times the national budget.

Update, 1:05pm EDT, 5/4/05 All but volume are unchanged. Volume is 758,365.

Update, 1pm EDT, 5/4/05 I had a very nice chat with a White House correspondent at The Associated Press, who took notes on my comments and left me feeling as though they were interested. I stressed the debt relief that Nigeria and Sao Tome could receive almost immediately by hastening the awards in the Joint Development Zone after more than a year of delays. I also left a message on White House correspondent John McKinnon's line at the Dow Jones News Service bureau in Washington.

Update, 12:41pm EDT, 5/4/05 Volume climbs to 742,065 as the price loses the precious elasticity we had enjoyed for a few weeks. Bid, Ask and price are unchanged.

Update, 12:31pm EDT, 5/4/05 "Time passes slowly up here in the mountains..." is one of my favorite lines from Judy Collins' albums, and it applies well here. Some 30 minutes after our last post, the price is unchanged at $0.70, but the Bid has fallen half a cent to $0.69 and the Ask remains at $0.70 as volume climbs to 729,985. It looks like we might limp past 1 million shares today. Call a reporter listed in our "Awards Protest Mounted" post below and, I guarantee you, if we get an answer that says "soon" from President Obasanjo, it will be worth a $1 in share price. That's not why I want you to do it - it's because I simply want to know the answer so that I can plan for it - but it may be an incentive to many of you.

Update, 12pm EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.70 as the volume reaches 612,285, with the Bid and Ask unchanged at $0.695 x $0.70 going into the lunch hour.

Update, 11:38am EDT, 5/4/05 Volume climbs to 585,985 and all else is unchanged. No new press release on the JDA site, www.nigeriasaotomejda.com.

Update, 11:35am EDT, 5/4/05 The price slips to $0.70, the new Ask, while the Bid falls to $0.68, as volume climbs rapidly to 562,385.

Update, 11:30am EDT, 5/4/05 Volume crosses the 500K mark to 504,472 rather late in the morning. The price is $0.705, the Bid, and the Ask remains at $0.71.

Update, 11:27am EDT, 5/4/05 All indicators are unchanged.

Update, 11:23am EDT, 5/4/05 Volume nears the 500K threshhold to 499,472. The price is $0.705, the Bid, and the Ask remains at $0.71.

Update, 11:19am EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.705, the Bid, as trading hits 495,472.

Update, 11:14am EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.71 and the Bid rises to $0.705 as the Ask stay at $0.71. Volume is 494,772 shares.

Update, 11:06am EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.70, the Bid, and the Ask is $0.71, as volume reaches 484,422 shares.

Update, 11:02am EDT, 5/4/05 walldog0 writes about me on Raging Bull's ERHE message board:

joe has an agenda, that suits his trading.... position at the time....he will mislead,if he can make a buck doing it....his spin is not to be trusted, imo

To be absolutely clear, I have not traded ERHE since Jan. 10 and Jan. 20, when I bought 1,000 shares at $0.45 and 40 shares at $0.485, respectively. I have had 123,040 shares at all times since then. My reporting has nothing to do with my trading, and if it does, I will tell you. Remember that posters like walldog0 do not reveal their identity (Frank Puleo is is his real name), their holdings or their trades to anyone, and thus cannot be trusted to provide you with information contrary to their own interests. I report and prognosticate based on my reading of the facts as best I can discern them. Often, as in the past week, my reporting has cost me money - some $25,000 since the recent high, in fact. I am not worried about the ups and downs, but about what is happening on a day-to-day basis with the awards process and the share price only as it relates to that. My goal is to make $1 million on this stock by cashing out at the appropriate time.

Update, 10:45am EDT, 5/4/05 The price slips to $0.697 and the Bid to $0.696, while the Ask is unchanged at $0.70 and the volume is unchanged, too.

Update, 10:44am EDT, 5/4/05 The price improves to $0.70 as volume inches up to 415,422. The Ask is still at $0.697.

Update, 10:43am EDT, 5/4/05 The Ask slips back to $0.70 with the Bid at $0.697 as volume remains unchanged.

Update, 10:37am EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.6965, while Bid is $0.697 and the Ask goes up to $0.71 as volume hits 409,422 shares. It's rare to have a four-decimal price in ERHE.

Update, 10:31am EDT, 5/4/05 The price is up three-tenths of a cent to $0.698, as Volume hits 391,422 and Bid and Ask are unchanged.

Update, 10:29am EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.695, the Bid, while the Ask has slipped to $0.698. Volume jumps to 386,922. With the Prime Minister of Sao Tome in Washington seeking debt relief ffom the IMF and World Bank, getting the awards signed off must await his return to Sao Tome - if the report from Raging Bull is correct. That puts us into next week at the earliest, I suspect.

Update, 10:22am EDT, 5/4/05 A "good news" update from hurricaneoffor, a poster we known Raging Bull's ERHE message board:

****GOOD NEWS UPDATE****

I just spoke with someone at JDA who does not want to be named. They said to be looking for a PR today on their website (of course that could mean tomorrow LOL). Anyway, what was relayed to me is the everything is COMPLETELY DONE on the Nigerian end. On the STP side they have to have 2 people sign off on awards. The 2 people are the President and Prime Minister. Source said that PM had been traveling and will sign off on awards very soon. I also inquired about the STP concerns about sig bonuses. The source explained that meetings occured in STP the last couple of days and everything has been explained to them. Fears and anxieties have been OVERCOME. The source explained to me that Nigeria has over 14 years of O&G experience while STP NONE. Nigeria understands STP concerns and this is why they met with them to alleivate these concerns. Source said that ALL 5 BLOCKS will be awarded.
Expect News and awards soon folks. It's all coming together IMO. You can call the JDA yourself:
011 234 9 524 1064 or 011 234 9 524 1069, or
011 234 9 524 1065

Update, 10:21am EDT, 5/4/05 51 minutes into the day, we are down $0.03 at $0.70, while the Bid and Ask are $0.6950 x $0.699, and volume is 374,372.

Update, 10:16am EDT, 5/4/05 The price slips to $0.695, the Bid, and the Ask is $0.70. Volume is 359,169, about 15K in 15 minutes.

Update, 10:02am EDT, 5/4/05 Trading slows, and all indicators are unchanged.

Update, 9:59am EDT, 5/4/05 The price slips back to $0.70 but the Bid improves to $0.70 while the Ask is unchanged. Volume is 334,519.

Update, 9:58am EDT, 5/4/05 We're holding at $0.71 as volume goes to 331,119 and Bid and Ask remain unchanged.

Update, 9:56am EDT, 5/4/05 We recover slightly, to $0.71, while the Bid is back at $0.685. Volume is 330, 510 - nine shares?.

Update, 9:53am EDT, 5/4/05 Stripping away our profits, the Bid stays at $0.68 and the Ask at $0.69. Volume hits 330, 510. Calling Washington to ask the President to represent the interests of American shareholders in the companies bidding in the JDA, and asking reporters for the major dailies to question President Obasanjo tomorrow when he comes to town, is the only way to get some solid information abut our future.

Update, 9:48am EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.68 again, as volume shoots to 245,719, taking out stops.

Update, 9:47am EDT, 5/4/05 Perhaps one lesson of this stock is that shareholders would rather lose money than make themselves heard in Washington. The price is $0.685, the Ask, while the Bid is $0.68 and volume hits 226,219.

Update, 9:45am EDT, 5/4/05 The price is $0.68, down $0.05, as investors give up or just get weary of waiting for JDZ news. Volume is 130,549, not especially heavy.