The news was first reported in an anonymous comment to ERHC On The Move on Saturday.
The growing toll has some observers worried that the Sao Tome government may collapse, but others tell Norval Scott that's just how politics works in Sao Tome, a nation of just 165,000 people, according to the 2004 U.N. census.
Opposition figures who have relentlessly pounded the presidency of Fradique de Menezes have now won a raft of concessions, including President de Menezes' resignation of president of the National Petroleum Council, cabinet member Mateus Meira Rita's resignation as Sao Tome's lead negotiator on the Nigeria-DRSTP Joint Ministerial Council, the firing of special presidential advisor on oil Patrice Trovoada, and now the resignation of Carvalho, who just last week defended the outcome of the JMC's "exhaustive" analysis and recommendations on the winners of five blocks that drew 26 bids in the Joint Development Zone's second licensing round.
The round ended Dec. 15 and the JDA was supposed to announce winners on Dec. 31, but the announcement has been delayed monthly, weekly and now daily since then.
The Dow Jones story was recently updated, and here it is with some new comments:
DJ UPDATE: Sao Tome Oil Min Resigns Ahead Of Block Awards
by Norval Scott
05/16/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Updates an item timed at 1503 GMT with additional comments.)
LONDON (Dow Jones) -- Sao Tomean Oil Minister Arlindo de Ceita Carvalho has resigned, just days before the country's long-running oil licensing round was expected to be concluded.
A spokesman from the Sao Tomean Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment confirmed to Dow Jones Newswires via telephone that Carvalho had stepped down.
The resignation follows hard on the heels of the firing of Patrice Trovoada, the country's oil adviser, who was sacked by President Fradique de Menezes earlier this month.
Carvalho, like Trovoada, is a member of the Independent Democratic Action (ADI) party, which forms part of the ruling coalition with the Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and Principe-Social Democratic Party (MLSTP).
While no official reason for Carvalho's resignation has yet been given, it's thought that his departure is connected to the country's oil licensing round, for which awards were expected to be made this week.
Five blocks are set to be awarded imminently in the Joint Development Zone, a region jointly operated by Nigeria and Sao Tome that's believed to have very good oil prospects. The award of blocks has run into ongoing delays, with sources close to the negotiating process indicating that the ruling parties in Sao Tome disagree on which companies the JDZ oil blocks should be awarded to, hence the discord.
The recent turmoil has led some observers to question whether the political status quo in Sao Tome is on the verge of breaking down.
"These resignations will deal a major blow to the stability of the Sao Tomean government," said Manuel Paulo, a researcher at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs.
He noted that the government was also likely to be affected by President de Menezes stepping down on Friday from his tenure as chairman of the country's National Petroleum Council over the weekend.
However, Chris Melville, an analyst at Global Insight, said that the unrest was more a reflection of the perpetual crisis that Sao Tomean politics exists in, rather than an indication that the government was breaking down.
"Sao Tome's political landscape is very fragmented. It's all about temporary alliances and coalitions of convenience; these agreements do break down from time to time, but the state never collapses," he said.
How the resignation of Carvalho might affect the oil licensing round is as yet unclear. Sao Tome's National Petroleum Council met on Friday, with sources close to the negotiating process saying that it looked likely to back the recent recommendations of the Joint Ministerial Council over which companies the oil blocks should be awarded to. That appeared to pave the way for the licensing round to be concluded this week.
However, Carvalho's resignation could mean that that process encounters further delays, said Antony Goldman, an analyst at London's Clearwater Research Servives.
"The resignation of the oil minister from government creates a political crisis that has to be resolved," he said.
Sources close to the Sao Tomean government said that the ADI would put two candidates forward for the vacant oil minister position on Tuesday, potentially providing a solution to the problem.
-By Norval Scott, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9344; norval.scott@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-16-05 1349ET
We've just gotten a reply from Gerhard Seibert, the influential and distinguished Sao Tome expert who has written extensively on the oil blocks and the awards process. He urges us to read the 428-word Energy Compass article (for sale for $24) posted May 13, and helpfully offers us this information:
Joe,
See the Energy Compass of May 13 on the question if
STP's national interests were harmed by the proposed
awards.
EC writes, among others, that " ...Nigerian power
brokers applied relentless pressure on São Tomé
officials to award coveted Block 4 to US Noble, a
partner of ERHC Energy, run by influential Nigerian
Emeka Offor, and to relegate US independent Anadarko
to Block 3. Most São Tomé officials appear to favor
Anadarko, which offered $90 million for Block 4 to
Noble's $57 million.
...Influential São Tomeans are piqued at the
prevalence on the list of proposed winners of
well-connected Nigerian independents who seem unlikely
to bring much to the party. They include Momo
Petroleum and Equinos Oil and Gas, which are thought
to be controlled by Mohamed Asebelua - a power broker
once linked to trader Arcadia."
Mr. Asebelua has been appointed as President Menezes'
special advisor for external investments.
Besides, the participation of Mr. Rita, a shareholder
of ERHC Energy Inc., in the NPC was possibly a
violation of art. 30 of the Oil Revenue Management
Law.
Regards
Gerhard
Here is that full Energy Compass report, courtesy of stockhocker70, now posting on IHUB:
Sao Tome runs into more problems in JDZ
Energy Compass Friday, May 13, 2005
Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe ran into more problems in their Joint Development Zone (JDZ) this week, when Sao Tome regulators criticized the way the latest licensing round was handled. The move could force President Fradique de Menezes to reject awards recommended by the zone's administrator, the Joint Development Authority (JDA). Both De Menezes and Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo have to approve the awards.
In a controversial report, Sao Tome's National Petroleum Agency said the JDA did insufficient checking into bidders' backgrounds. The JDA relied on due diligence done during the first licensing round in 2003 on the grounds similar companies bid, but that meant some second-round bidders went unchecked, sources say. The report also says too many awards to inexperienced Nigerian independents could frustrate operators.
The process has been subject to tension for months, as Nigerian power brokers applied relentless pressure on Sao Tome officials to award coveted Block 4 to US Noble, a partner of ERHC Energy, run by influential Nigerian Emeka Offor, and to relegate US independent Anadarko to Block 3. Most Sao Tome officials appear to favor Anadarko, which offered $90 million for Block 4 to Noble's $57 million. Anadarko put in the second highest Block 3 bid at $40 million. Mike Adenuga, another influential Nigerian, bid highest for Blocks 2 and 4 through various companies.
Influential Sao Tomeans are piqued at the prevalence on the list of proposed winners of well-connected Nigerian independents who seem unlikely to bring much to the party. They include Momo Petroleum and Equinox Oil and Gas, which are thought to be controlled by Mohamed Asebelua -- a power broker once linked to trader Arcadia. Others are Hatman and Godsonic, which have been linked to political strongman Tony Anineh, a close adviser to Obasanjo.
Nigerians are cashing in already, with funds from the first bonuses paid by Chevron and Exxon Mobil for Block 1 deposited in Island Bank, an affiliate of Nigeria's Hallmark Bank (EC Apr.15,p9). The latter is controlled by the family of Nigeria's recently fired Senate president, Adolphus Wabara. The deposit flouts JDA rules, which call for cash to be paid into triple A-rated banks, Sao Tomeans say.
De Menezes has clearly been subject to pressure from Nigerians, too, and a key question is whether he'll reject the awards or toe the Nigerian line. The report could enable his opponents to force the presidential hand. De Menezes is thought to be concerned that former presidential oil adviser Patrice Trovoada, whose family has political influence in Sao Tome, could make common cause with opposition parties in parliament.
Here is the Lusa story on Carvalho's resignation in the original Portuguese:
by Inacio Amorim
São Tomé -- O ministro dos Recursos Naturais e Meio Ambiente de São Tomé e Príncipe, Arlindo Carvalho, apresentou na manhã desta segunda-feira o seu pedido de demissão ao chefe do Governo do arquipélago, Damião Vaz d´Almeida.
Na origem do pedido de demissão apresentado por Arlindo Carvalho está a polémica em torno do «dossier petróleo» que se instalou no país e a Empresa de Água e Electricidade de São Tomé e Príncipe (EMAE).
Ao que tudo indica, o pedido de demissão - de que já se ouvia falar desde o início do mês - já terá sido aceite pelo primeiro-ministro são-tomense.
Para ocupar o cargo deixado vago pelo ministro demissionário, o seu partido, a Acção Democrática Independente (ADI), avançou já dois nomes, por enquanto ainda não revelados.
O anúncio surge poucos dias depois do anúncio do afastamento do chefe de Estado são-tomense, Fradique de Menezes, do cargo de presidente do Conselho Nacional de Petróleo de São Tomé e Príncipe, na sequência de acusações de irregularidades na adjudicação de blocos petrolíferos.
«O Presidente da República deve estar afastado destas negociações para evitar confusões», disse este fim-de-semana à imprensa Fradique de Menezes, acrescentando que passará apenas a «fiscalizar o processo».
Update, 6:55pm EDT, 5/16/05: The price closed at $0.695, indicating investors have more confidence in the near-term outcome of the awards debate in Sao Tome than we might have thought. The final volume was 1,115,200, and the Bid closed higher than that, at $0.699, while the Ask closed at $0.70 where it spent much of the day.
This evidence of investor confidence bodes well for the rest of the week.
Update, 3:36pm EDT, 5/16/05: Investors have given up most of their gains today as the price hits $0.675, the Bid, while the Ask stays at $0.69 and volume rises to 1,072,300. This is the last update of the trading day. We expect a $0.66 close.
Update, 3:15pm EDT, 5/16/05: The price is $0.69 at the Surge, but the Bid and Asl are unchanged and little new volume has emerged. 1.069.800 shares have traded so far today.
Update, 2:55pm EDT, 5/16/05: Just 20 minutes from the 3:15 Surge, the price has bounced back a little to $0.69, while the Bid has fallen further, to $0.67, and the Ask remains at $0.69 while the volume hits 1,060,900 shares.
Update, 2:28pm EDT, 5/16/05: The price is at the low of the day, $0.68, after a series of developments, including a fourth resignation, a Dow Jones story, circulation of an Energy Compass article that names Nigerian independents who won the bids, and a note from the widely recognized expert Gerhard Seibert, all published here. The Bid has fallen to $0.675 and the Ask to $0.69, while volume has just crossed the 1 million mark to 1,034,600 shares.
Update, 10:59am, 5/16/05: Still at $0.71, with the Bid improving to $0.705 and the Ask staying at $0.70. Volume is 392,620 shares.
I've got to take my Mom to the doctor, so I'll be back around 1pm or earlier.
Update, 10:44am, 5/16/05: The price is $0.71, up $0.04 or 6 percent, and Bid and Ask are unchanged as volume reaches 361,770.
Update, 10:33am, 5/16/05: The price is $0.71, the Bid $0.70 and the Ask $0.71 as volume hits 354,670 shares.
Update, 10:12am, 5/16/05: The price is still $0.70, and the Bid and Ask are unchanged. Volume is 349,010 shares.
Update, 10:10am, 5/16/05: All unchanged.
Update, 10:08am, 5/16/05: All unchanged.
Update, 10:07am, 5/16/05: The price slips to $0.695 as volume reaches 300,648, with the Bid and Asj unchanged at $0.695 x $0.70.
Update, 10:04am, 5/16/05: The price slips back to $0.70, while the Bid and Ask are unchanged on volume of 297,148.
Update, 10:02am, 5/16/05: The price is back to $0.71 again, below the current Ask of $0.70 and the Bid of $0.695, while volume is a modest 294,148.
Update, 9:57am, 5/16/05: Volume is stopped for 3 minutes, the lifts to 289,048, while the Bid slips to $0.69 and the Ask goes to $0.70, the current price.
Update, 9:53am, 5/16/05: All unchanged as volume slows.
Update, 9:51am, 5/16/05: The price slip[s back to $0.70, the Bid, while the Ask stays at $0.70, and volume hits 273,573 shares.
Update, 9:49am, 5/16/05: Share price jumps to $0.715, then falls back to $0.71, with the Ask there and the Bid at $0.70 on volume of 271,073 shares. Despite modest volume, the morning's uptrend seems to be holding.
Update, 9:44am, 5/16/05: The Bid was momentarily at $0.705, its high, but slipped back to $0.70, while the Ask is at $0.705, a half cent below its $0.71 high. The price is $0.705 and volume is 233,623.
Update, 9:42am, 5/16/05: 10 minutes into the day we're up 4.5 percent and volume is 16,583. The Bid has risen to $0.70 and the Ask to $0.705.
Update, 9:39am, 5/16/05: The Ask rises to $0.705 while the Bid stays at $0.695, and the price is $0.70 as volume lifts to 156.058 shares.
Update, 9:37am, 5/16/05: Volume rises to 118.058, while the price is $0.70, the Bid is $0.695 and the Ask is $0.70.
Update, 9:33am, 5/16/05: The opening sees the share price hit $0.71 on volume of 81,008, but it immediately falls back to the $0.70 Bid, and is now now at $0.705. The Ask is $0.705.
Update, 9:29am, 5/16/05: The Bid rises to $0.705 before the opening, a nice $0.04 improvement from Friday's close. The Ask goes to $0.71.
Update, 9:23am, 5/16/05: The Ask gapped up sharply this mroning to $0.70, while the Bid remains at $0.67 a few minutes before the opening. Normally, that's a good sign, but with Dimka basically unresponsive this morning, it's likely the euphoria won't last. The last step of the approval process in Sao Tome could come today, however, and there's always the possibility we will take off.
"Soon, and very soon, we're going to see the King..." That was the song this morning in a conversation posted by Ruby1100 between Markvol10 and JDA spokesman Sam Dimka. We can't confirm this with markvol10, unfortunately, because someone has TOS'd him from Raging Bull's ERHE message board.
****Spoke to JDA****
Markvol10: Spoke with Dimka. He said he is waiting on a briefing from Sao Tome and documents before end of business (Abuja time) today. I asked him about the LUSA article regarding the Oil Council meeting and he agreed with me that this was "very very good news." I asked him if this means that award process is moving forward and he said yes.
I asked him several times when exactly the awards would be announced and each time all he would say was that he was waiting on briefing and documents from Sao Tome. I think Sam is tired of giving out dates. LOL. He did agree awards would be announced very soon and this whole process is just about over.
26 comments:
Why don't you leave Sam alone? If it was up the JDA, this would have been done a long time ago. The issues are all in Sao Tome. Arlindo de Ceita Carvalho, Sao Tome's minister of natural resources, resigned this morning in protest at the Commission's conclusions. The situation locally is very delicate.
Your the only one getting ANY info right now.
Joe,
What is you email? I will send you the full EI report.
It is worth reading but I don't recommend anyone else spend the $24.
SH70
Above poster, I agree with you 100%. Anyone with commons sense can see that Sam Dimka is useless for information. It's not his fault since he's not in control of anything, but his word is unreliable and always has been. All he can do is advise you when the paperwork has been signed and delivered. He can't predict. Like I said before, Sam Dimka nao sabe nada! It's like trying to squeeze water from a rock. Poor man! Situation in STP will not be resolved by greedy investors wishing it to be so , but only by remediations being put into place by de Menezes and the NPC, as is being done now. The only thing that matter is that past mistakes be corrected and the national interest of the country be put first.
I am now convinced more than ever that ERHE will get Blocks 2, 3, and 4. Chips are on the table and I am ALL IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's STP's fault. They should not delay the current round. They should finish this round, only then they can try to make needed corrections for the future round.
Once again, 10:42AM Anonymous dislikes investors.
Those nasty "greedy investors" who as a class are the ones making it possible for the billions of dollars to be invested in the GOG to get the oil. Granted greed is the motivator, but without it STP would have no potential for great wealth.
So when STP is reviewing the naitonal interest of the country, they must realize that rewarding "greedy investors" has to be a top priority, like it or not.
They also must realize that the time for them to play hardball is AFTER the reserves are proven and there are companies making fortunes over there. At that point they will have far greater leverage and much less likelihood of scaring away further investment.
10:42AM Anonymous is MONGO!!!
Mohamed Asebuja, mentioned by Energy Compass as de Menezes' "special adviser for external investments," is likely the "foreign adviser" the MLSTP criticized the president for in its list of grievances last week.
FYI, Portuguese Lusa agency's LusaNews English service (www.lusa.pt) belatedly running its version of Saturday's Menezes/Pequeno news conference on NPC oil council meet.
Bests,
Good show, Joe! I think this is one of your best files since I began reading the Blog two months ago. Thanks!
Advised LusaNews will carry an English version of Carvalho resignation stri later this eve.
Cheers,
Sao Tome's National Petroleum Council met on Friday, with sources close to the negotiating process saying that it looked likely to back the recent recommendations of the Joint Ministerial Council over which companies the oil blocks should be awarded to. That appeared to pave the way for the licensing round to be concluded this week.
Sources close to the Sao Tomean government said that the ADI would put two candidates forward for the vacant oil minister position on Tuesday, potentially
providing a solution to the problem.
-By Norval Scott, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9344;
norval.scott@dowjones.com
Joe- to bad you are not as good reading level 2 as you are gathering info. 6 MM's at .67 or higher and you predict a close of .66 LMAO!
Joe - nice update:)
Update, 3:36pm EDT, 5/16/05: Investors have given up most of their gains today as the price hits $0.675, the Bid, while the Ask stays at $0.69 and volume rises to 1,072,300. This is the last update of the trading day. We expect a $0.66 close.
Leave the charts and T/A to the pros - just stick with your story!
Joe, or anyone knowledgeable about stocks price patterns,
When the situation is resolved and the JDA finally announces winners how will the sp be affected? Will the delay and turmoil have a positive or negative impact on sp after awards? Anyone?
Dow Jones (London) San Tome Update, In a controversial move, The San Tomean parliment has fired itself and all citizens of the country. The now defuct goverment has instructed all citizens to gather their belonging and meet in the center of the island for further instructions. Comments by one local citizen, "Bonennos" summarizes the feeling of many on the tiny island state that houses many of Africas most uncapable and ill-organized politicians, " we are let down again by the circus of clowns pretending to do the work of the people, at least I have a new pair of horse hide shoes that I fashioned from a discarded horse head I found." Stay tuned for further developments...
joe, i have lots of little puppies. would you like to cuddle with them. it's fun!
blue chips are wedged in my wee wee hole and that my friend, is not fun!
i also found 2 bananas wedged in my anal after a frat party. it was kind of fun after the hole got nice and loose, but it kind of hurt when they were inserted because i've only experimented with erasers, staples and poop from my rearend! I like skipping on the sidewalk!
Love Mongrel!
i like rectangles because they have four sides: an anal hole, 2 little titt(ies), 5 jackals and 1 bald joe shea! but that's ok! nice reporting johny miglewood jr.
Mongrel
i like sipping coca cola out of a straw that has brown residue from joe shea's lack of statistical measures.
oh but i guess that's why everyone like erhe! offor's a crook, but the stock price will probably go to $3.00 near term. can u sleep at nite?
mongrel
mongrel
or should i say smart mongrel
i'm confused, what should i say?
mongrel
my birdies are little puppies, except they don;t chirp, they bark!@
mongrel
Someone please let the big mouth that posts 24/7 on RB called Walldogo(he probably looks like a dog also)know that he's a moron with his rantings and ravings about the political situation in a country that he doesn't know anything about. No matter when you log on he's always and I mean always posting something. Doesn't he have life outside of RB? Seems not.
I agree. Walldog is a classless idiot who gives all longs a bad name.
He doesnt represent me thats for sure.
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