Sunday, May 22, 2005

A Fable Of Failure

The endless frustration that has characterized the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone's two licensing rounds entered a new, more intense phase in the first week of May, when most expected the awards to be announced. Following transmittal of the awards document to Nigeria, President Olusegun Obasanjo immediately signed it.

When it was sent to Sao Tome and Principe, however, a huge brouhaha developed that led to three high-level resignations and the firing of a former president's son. The President of Nigeria made a last-minute, desperate bid o save the process in a closed-door meeting with the government and leaders of Sao Tome, all to no avail.

Investors watched gains evaporate, watched officials make fools of themselves - and of journalists - as they predicted the time of awards again and again and were universally proved wrong - and watched themselves turning "slowly, slowly in the wind," hanged men and women powerless to alter the course of events half a world away, and as strange, exotic and unknowable in its political and economic culture as the landscape of Saturn might look to a resident of Earth.

At stake, clearly, are tens of billions of dollars in oil rights in which our own ERHC Energy has earned not only the preferential choices it made in December, but won additional exploration rights granted because we had partnered with financially sound and technically competent major players in the petroleum industry, Noble Energy, Pioneer Natural Resources and Devon Energy.

Our prize, however, like the golden ring that once glistened on a fantasy carousel, has proved just as elusive, and some would say as illusory as well.

The ring is not golden after all, but a tarnished piece of brass. We are invited to step off the carousel and let someone else ride and let them reach out and up with the joyful hope of seizing the precious rights that once belonged to us and seemed as guaranteed as a rainy day in Portland.

But in a triumph of bribery over law, of corruption over right, our company's sole asset has become a thing of loathing.

We are surrounded by giant corporations now charged before the United States Senate with bribing African leaders - among them ExxonMobil, the biggest player of all - who have used the vast power of their financial wealth to destroy us and take for themselves the priceless property we once, by right, had owned.

It has happened countless times in history, as big countries marched right over little ones, as a fiercer army of barbarians rampaged over the sophisticated soldiers of Rome, as the great Mongol hordes ranges across the thousands of miles of Asian landscape and laid waste to all of it. As in history, the larger take, and the smaller fall. Whether by war or bribery or political betrayal, the weak are vanquished and the strong contend.

Every confidence game known to man has precisely the same elements; the bait, and the switch. We lunge for the golden ring, and grab the brass one; we earn rights engraved in treaty stone, and the stone is crushed to sand. Our screams, our anguish, our pain are merely background noice to a century of outrage and lies; we are like static in the soundtrack of an ensemble film. No one hears us, no one cares.

We were small-time gamblers who took a bet and lost it; we played where all are warned not to play; we believed whatever we wanted to hear; we were seduced and betrayed by a promise that has become a prayer, one that is just as likely as our screams to go unheeded.

Yet in the darkest of nights, in the deepest of despair, some small, still light shines. That is God's promise to us. Whether we have lost our life's savings, our children's college tuition, or even our home, we remain only the victims, not the barbarians, not the bribe-payers or bribe-takers, not the corrupt, not the heedless giants who have stolen our wealth. We retain our character, our integrity, our dampened hope for the future, our imaginations and daring, and we soon will bet again. We will hit again.

And one day, one shining day when the blue sky and the bright sun and the singing, joyful birds of the sky bless us all at once, we will seize that golden ring, lift it triumphantly over our heads and cry, "Look! We have done at last what they said we could not do!"

But out in the crowd, they will nudge one another, grin, and point at us. Look, they will say: He's still thinks it is golden.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

Junior varsity writing at best. Everything you post has an underlying cry of, “Look at me!” Positive or negative posts, it’s all about you. But you do hurt people, those uninformed newbies that let your pretentious (often misspelled) words affect their investment. What a waste of a good brain.

Anonymous said...

Joe- I've read your blog for a few mos and this is my first time posting.
I, like you, am totally frustrated. But by now I've realized one thing about this whole situation: They do things on their time-table. Doesn't matter what the press or anyone thinks says or publishes. Just have to keep on awaiting.
I appreciate your blog. Your more informed and actually can write proper English unlike the clowns at RB.
Paul

Anonymous said...

Sheesh, Joe, they're going to have to invent a new term for you.

"Bi-polar" and "manic depressive" don't go far enough to describe your incessant in-the-blink-of-an-eye flip-flops from pumper to basher and back again.

You need help, dude.

...Joe Shea said...

I expect the awards to go forward, too. This is a fable, and so labeled. It is meant to provide perspective, not practical information. And many thanks for the compliment, Art.

Anonymous said...

boohooohoooo...I couldn't get the violin music out of my head as I read this garbage that curiously resembles a pimply-faced high school kid's poetry at some coffee shop recital.

Anonymous said...

http://www.erhc.greatsprings.net/comm/

Anonymous said...

How huch did you sell your shares for? You did sell you old depressed has-been?

p.s,This blog really has gone on too long. End it

Anonymous said...

Hi Joe been in ERHE for a long time bought originally at .03 and knowing quite a few other investors who bought in early stages some have 20 fold some 15 some 10 some 5 and a lot have 2 or 3 so i would say everyone is doing great but our biggest prize is about to come and i am talking quite a few million shares here.

Anonymous said...

I see a lot of people losing sleep and going through nervous breakdown. It's time to close this blog. Do it, do it now!

Anonymous said...

Homeport and mutwadadi

If you are friends of Joe and would like to help Joe, you might want to keep posting here. Otherwise, I would like to suggest you to abandon this blog and post on Investorshub.com ERHE board instead.

Sincerely

Anonymous said...

Joe, buddy, have you forgotten your Prozac these last few days?

Anonymous said...

Joe - way to help the gap-down on Monday. Last on out - turn off the lights to this pig - will ya!

LMAO

Anonymous said...

please leave joe alone , he just write the truth, NO AWARDS.

Colin S

Anonymous said...

Joe - Does this mean that the ERHE Pop Top competition is cancelled? Say its not true, Joe....

Anonymous said...

What kind of a F*cked up trip are you on? Wait, could this be intentional on your part? Are you in fact a swing trader, alternately pumping and bashing to milk a little money out of some clueless investors? Yeah, that's probably it. Because if you weren't a swing trader and you really believed your own (badly written) prose, you truly should be institutionalized and immediately. Instead of just being a danger to the newbie investors in ERHE, you could go postal and actually hurt innocent people. EOM

Anonymous said...

Anonymous from 10:17 - the pop top is still on. I cast my vote for .17
You all believed - you were all mistaken. Long and Broke!

Anonymous said...

JOE, S.T.F.U.
Sincerly
THE ODIOUS TUNEMAN

Anonymous said...

I agree this has been a failure thus far.

It was a complete failure on the part of Sao Tome to let multiple politicians have a say so in the decision making process.

That was a total failure. In order to complete something you need the strong leadership of one individual.

Nigeria has that with Obasanjo. Sao Tome does NOT have that as they have let too many people become involved in this process.

People such as Carlos Tiny and Troavado were allowed to hold this whole thing up.

That should have never been allowed to happen and if they had had strong leadership in Sao Tome who looked out for the good of the people and the process then it never would have been allowed to happen.

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately each of these politicians has their own agenda. And because Menenez rules by consesus and appeasement then these crooked leaders are allowed to prevail.

Menenez needs to put his foot down and take control. Unfortunately it seems as if he is incappable of doing that.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous - 12:08

Completely agree with your take. Although the loyal longs had done an enormous amount of DD on this process, no one could have predicted what is happening now. Some of the smart ones are locking in their profits before this whole thing self-destructs - I applaud that. The others will ride this down to nothing, still beleiving all is right with the world. I feel sorry for them. Either way, it was a good shot, nothing ventured, nothing gained. The trick right now, will be getting out alive come Monday!

Anonymous said...

12:14, nice try. You are very smooth. But that isnt going to work.

I said the sitatuion has been a faiulure "thus far". That doesnt mean progress hasnt been made. And it certainly doesnt meen that I expect a bad end result.

I just expect things to take a little longer than I had envisioned.

Believe me these oil companies have plenty of ammunition to file lawsuits against the govt of Sao Tome due to the stalling of the awards process of it were to come to that.

I dont think Sao Tome is in any position to be fighting off multiple lawasuits. They need to complete the awards.

Anonymous said...

12:14

So sorry, thought you were speaking sense. Appears you will be turning off the lights for us then. Tidy up a bit too on your way out.

Lawsuits take lots of time and lots of money. Always tough to sue a corrupt government. The ones involved are small fish. What is your thoughts on why the smart and wealthy players in this game had the sense to stay away. ie: Exxon and Chevron. Longs called them stupid, think maybe they were really the smart ones? best of luck to you though.........

Anonymous said...

I believe Mike Ditka's brother Sam Dimka - he says that Mark and Swing don't really call anyone.

Awards in early June.

...Joe Shea said...

If I was ion the Sao Tome ruling party and was asked by Obasanjo what I wanted to happen, I guess I ould have to opt for the awards document to go back to the JMC - with its new cast of characters, minus those who had the supposed onflicts, and minus Patrice Trovoada - and have the same bids re-examined and restated. We might well come out just the same as we did the first time, and EEL might get even less. But it could not be all that speedy a process. It would take at least two weeks and probably a month. Howeverm when Obasanjo laid down the law in Sao Tome, I am sure he was careful to use the $44 million loand Sao Tome has received against the $49 million being held in escrow until signatures can be obtained more as a carrot than a club. I imagine Obasanjo's strongest appeal was to the viability of the JDZ; he likely said that if we have to keep going through this, we will have no credibility, and we will have to opt out this arrangement with you, and under the pe-existing law, we would take virtually all of it and Sao Tome would get nothing but its EEZ. I would think that would be the most persuasive argument, and can only hope it would prevail for its simple truth. I think ExxonMobil has probably stirred up the plot in the National Assembly (where Obasanjo's PDP holds a strong majority) to impeach him to add the additional pressure back home, because at this point I think XOM must hate him for having the courage to say no the world's largest corporation. I think that Obasanjo is an extraordinary man in an extremely difficult position and I think he will seek the solution that is least disruptive. If he gained some agreement in Sao Tome, and whether h did or no ought to leak out soon, then we will go forward in the short term, such as this week; if they decided instead to dot all their i's and cross all their t's, the bids will be re-examined by the newly constituted Joint Ministerial Council and that will take a month, and then awards will come. That's my belief. I thank all of you for your very varied and thoughtful responses to my fable.

Anonymous said...

Joe you should either be in jail or perhaps a mental institution. You don't know "shit from shineola" about ERHE, the tragic impact you have with all your ramblings on us common folk and your intertwined ego and low self esteem. Give it up - drop your blog and move on---to let's say changing camphor cakes at MacDonald's!!

Anonymous said...

joe,did you sell all your shares friday? Your wife is from Sam-Tome what did she hear,and how does she feel about losing so much money? when the share price hit 90 I knew there were problems when it did'nt break this resistance,but you kept pumping just like all the others.

Anonymous said...

To all of you people who keep telling JOe to give up his blog... If you dont like it, dont look at it. You still keep coming back. YOu just need somewhere to post your snide remarks.
And about having an impact on peoples trading... Come on, one person should not influence your trading anyway.

DEE

...Joe Shea said...

I last sold ERHC/ERHE shares in June, 2004, and last purchased them on January 20, 2005, before I started the blog. My wife is from Peru and neither of us has ever been to Sao Tome or Africa.

You need to be careful about slandering a peron that has a real identity, as you do not. My information, from UCLA's professor of law and First Amendment expert Eugene Volokh two weeks ago, is that such comments can be deemed libelous and that I can obtain your real identity through a subpoena, and that if you have maliciously attacked me with a reckless disregard for the truth, I can obtain a substantial rtecovery from you.

Don't think that my tiger shark of a lawyer will fail to do so if you provoke me sufficiently. But you have a long way to go.

Anonymous said...

We can all argue back and forth until the cows come home, but the damn truth is NOT ONE OF US knows 100% for sure what is going on right now.

Anonymous said...

More blatant manipulation by BurgerBoy

Anonymous said...

as an observer on this board and others, i'll say simmer down joe. you can't get squat unless you can prove damages and the best i can figure out is that all the controversy you stir up, true or false, regrettably makes you more famous and improves your visability all to the detriment, i'll also say of investors and the market in general for erhe.

Anonymous said...

A JMC meeting is scheduled for Tuesday in Abuja - at the request of Sao Tome's MLSTP-led government. Mutwadadi

Anonymous said...

Will you please stop beating joe. and wake up to reallity, the news is bad, thats a fact. we did expect awards 4 years agoe, and it has not happened yet. i cant imagine that they ever will agree there is something very wrong on this small island, i would not be surprised to see xom as the big winner in a rebid. in the meantime most people of sao tome has sold shares of erhe boosting the national welfare with millions of $ from stupid american investors, in the biggest nigerian scam ever seen.

good luck

Colin S

Anonymous said...

If the hold up is only in certain blocks (ie 4,5,6) then why must they insist on awarding all 5 blocks at the same time and holding up the entire process?

Why not award blocks 2 and 3 while they haggle over 4, 5, and 6.

Anonymous said...

The JMC is scheduled to meet on Tuesday in Abuja - at the invitation of Sao Tome's MLSTP-led government. mutwadadi