Update, 4:07pm EDT, 5/13/05 The price closes at $0.67, off $0.02, on closing volume of 829,136 shares - probably the slowest Friday in recent memory. For longs, it's baffling why anyone would sell, but for those who've been promised "the check's in the mail" by the JDA and all the pumpers for so long, it's not surprising some would. We got a last-minute Comment from Anonymous that awards were Sunday, and true or not, they probably are coming tomorrow, Sunday or Monday, I think. ERHC On The Move, which last traded for our own account on Jan. 20, still has all its 123,040 shares averaged at $0.4394 and now valued at $82,436, a $28,189.33 profit. Just two weeks or so ago, that number was $110,000, but in a few weeks from now - $300,000, maybe.
Update, 3:59pm EDT, 5/13/05 Last-minute trades bring volume up to 810,436 and the price down to $0.66, with the Ask at $0.67.
Update, 3:57pm EDT, 5/13/05 The price is $0.67 and the Ask lower at $0.675, with volume running up to 782,636 shares.
Update, 3:47pm EDT, 5/13/05 There a 426-word article in Energy Intelligence on the problems in Sao tome:
Sao Tome runs into more problems in JDZ
Energy Compass May 13, 2005 (428 Words) Their price is $24.
Update, 3:44pm EDT, 5/13/05 The second 30K buy of the afternoon fails to move the price from $0.675; the first at 2:13 was part of a 10-minute burst of buying from 2:04pm to 2:14pm that rolled up more than 80,000 shares between $0.68 and $0.685.
The price is now $0.675, with the Bid at $0.67 and the Ask still $0.68, as volume hits 737,486 shares.
Update, 3:36pm EDT, 5/13/05 The Buy/Sell data from ADVFN is delayed 15 minutes, but it shows the Buy interest has increased substantially; earlier this morning it was running at a 3:1 ratio in favor of Sells. At 3:17pm EDT, that balance had started to shift, and there were 285,700 Buys to 333,186 Sells, and 81,500 unidentified shares. That the buy interest has come after Abuja closed down is possibly significant. Our price at 3:35 is $0.675, the Bid, with the Ask at $0.68 and 707,486 shares changing hands.
Update, 3:23pm EDT, 5/13/05 Nice Surge today to 700,386 shares, with the price, Bid and Ask all unchanged. Not.
Here's the price/volume data from Raging Bull ERHE, a little premature perhaps, but very nice to see:
12:16 AM ET
73.55
+0.94 (+1.29 %)
Volume: 3,029,605
- - - - -
Full quote | LiveChart
Get real-time streaming quotes
Update, 3:10pm EDT, 5/13/05 "Awards Sunday," one Comment says, but it's from Anonymous, who said he "Spoke to the JDA. Awards Sunday local time." Would that it were so, and perhaps it is. The price is $0.68, the Bid $0.675, and the Ask $0.68 as we approach the 3:15 Surge.
Update, 1:27pm EDT, 5/13/05 According to ADVN, where results are delayed 15 minutes, Sels and Buys have improved the earlier 3:1 ration to 3:2. That accounts for the preprandial surge in price, we suppose, reflecting (momentarily) improved expectations of awards. Whenever Sam Dimka says to call back in an hour for an update, that means he's going home in 30 minutes.
Update, 1:25pm EDT, 5/13/05 The price at $0.681 is higher than the Ask, at $0.68, while the Bid is set at $0.675 and volume is 519,390 shares.
Update, 1:17pm EDT, 5/13/05 The price is $0.681, the Bid at $0.675, with the Ask at $0.685 and volume at 519,390 shares.
Update, 12:26pm EDT, 5/13/05 The price is $0.68, with volume at 479,440. The Bid and Ask are $0.68 x $0.69.
On The Waterfront
Sao Tome City beckons investors from around the world to its placid and beautiful waterfront.
A post on Raging Bull from mudpie, allegedly a recap of his telephonic discussion with JDA spokesman Sam Dimka, says Sam is going home for the weekend. "TGIF," Sam is supposed to have said.
Update, 12:17am EDT, 5/13/05 The price is $0.69, the Ask, and the Bid is $0.68. The run seems to have faltered, and now the price is falling back. 477,440 shares have traded.
Update, 12:08am EDT, 5/13/05 Volume is moving at an improved clip, with the Ask now again at $0.70, the Bid lower at $0.68, and the volume at 470,440 shares.
Update, 11:58am EDT, 5/13/05 The Ask has been erratic, jumping to $0.725, then to $0,.70, then to $0.72 and then to $0.70 and now back to $0.72, all without any appreciable change in volume over the past 10 minutes. This reflects indecision on the part of sellers, who await news but know the deadlines are closing in on them. Volume is 400,440, and the price is $0.695.
Update, 11:53am EDT, 5/13/05 Sellers lose confidence and the Ask drops to $0.70, while the Bid remains at $0.695 on volume of 385,440 shares.
Update, 11:41am EDT, 5/13/05 We're up $0.035 now at $0.725, the Ask, while the Bid lingers at $0.695. Volume is 375,440.
Update, 11:38m EDT, 5/13/05 The Bid slips to $0.695 and the price is $0.70, while the Ask is at $0.725.
Update, 11:35am EDT, 5/13/05 Now we're up to $0.71 and in the green and starting to run! The Ask is $0.725 and the Bid $0.70. Volume is 365,440.
Update, 11:34am EDT, 5/13/05 The price is $0.69, the Bid rises two and a half cents to $0.68 again, while the Ask goes to $0.69, and volume is 342,335. Some movement here.
Update, 11:29am EDT, 5/13/05 The price climbs back to $0.67, while the Ask gaps up to $0.68, on volume of 319,835; the Bid is $0.655, the low Bid of the day.
Update, 11:12am EDT, 5/13/05 In what seems less a shake than a shudder, the share price has fallen to $0.66 and the the Ask to $0.665 on volume that's leapt substantially in the past few minutes to 261,835. Sells outnumber Buys by about 3:1.
We expect some of those who said they would sell if the awards weren't announced by Friday are doing so. My guess? They'll regret it.
If the oil commission meeting rejects the awards, that's one thing; if they adopt no position, that is another. Watch carefully.
Update, 11:05am EDT, 5/13/05 The price is $0.68 again, the Bid, with the Ask again up to $0.69 and extremely low volume of 160,335 shares. The low volume, I think, reflects the strong possibility that important news is imminent. Here's why:
- The National Oil Commission is meeting right now.
- Sam Dimka seems to expect word from Sao Tome in the next hour.
- The Secretary-General of the President's party, MDFM, says that the awards will be made to ERHC because its rights demands it, and the political fallout will be dealt with later.
- ERHC Energy executives are now on record saying they believe they have been assured by the JDA that the awards will be announced "by the end of [this] week."
- This current impasse is not so different than the last one, and awards on that occasion were announced on a Saturday.
Update, 10:40am EDT, 5/13/05 There's a new post from hurricaneoffor (posted by Ruby1100 because hurricane has been TOSd, I presume) which comes at near noon, which is 5pm EDT in Abuja when Sam Dimka is going home for the day; hemay not have news for us again until Monday:
****UPDATE**** From HurricaneOffor [who can't post]
Just spoke with Sam Dimka at JDA. He said that he is expecting an update from Sao Tome in an hour or so.
I asked him if awards would be announced today/tomorrow and he said that I should wait for his update in an hour from his Sao Tome contact. [which could mean today or tomorrow]
I asked him about the Vitrina article and he had not read it. I told him that I would email it to him. I told him what it basically said and that it sounded as if awards were ready to be announced and "He agreed".
You can call Sam for yourself at 011 234 9 524 1069.
Update, 10:40am EDT, 5/13/05 To our friends on Raging Bull: I, too, regret the harsh tone I have adopted in recent days, even if I feel it is more than justified by the posts I responded to. However, I want you to know that I endorse the good efforts of rancho60008 to mediate a peace that will return our communications to collegial equanimity.
Update, 10:36am EDT, 5/13/05 The price is $0.68, the Ask, and the Bid remains at $0.67 as volume remains low at 131,450. The Oil Commission could last until late into our afternoon, as they are five hours ahead of us there.
Update, 10:16am EDT, 5/13/05 The price is $0.67 40 minutes into the day, pff $0.02, and the volume remains modest at 110,550. The Bid and Ask are $0.67 x $0.68.
Update, 10:11am EDT, 5/13/05 News from Mutwadadi:
The National Oil Commission in Sao Tome has - finally - begun its meeting to consider whether or not to approve the JMC's proposed recommendations. The ground may seem well rehearsed, but we are not expecting a conclusion until late today, with a possibility that it may take longer still to reach a conclusion.
Many thanks, mutwadadi!
Update, 9:36am EDT, 5/13/05 We're getting so many hits the servers are jammed.
The price is $0.674, the Ask, while the Bid is at $0.67, on volume of 42,150. This may be one of the slower Fridays on record - for now. Both the JDA and ERHE suggested - according to each other - that awards will be announced by today.
Update, 9:30am EDT, 5/13/05 The stock opens on Friday the 13th at $0.68 on quiet volume of 4,750 shares.
24 comments:
After a 2 year wait, awards today would be a real hoot!
The National Oil Commission in Sao Tome has - finally - begun its meeting to consider whether or not to approve the JMC's proposed recommendations. The ground may seem well rehearsed, but we are not expecting a conclusion until late today, with a possibility that it may take longer still to reach a conclusion.
'mutwadadi'
Thanks 'mutwadadi' - you seem close to the situation. What do you consider the consequences are if for some (unlogical IMO) reason they would not approve the recommendations. Is it within their 'rights'? How would Nigeria respond to such an action - would they be violating the treaty. Would the Block 1 deal be 'null and void', monies returned, more delays, etc.
Non-approval opens would open up a whole new 'can of worms'
Thanks for your updates
mutwadadi, do you feel the President is bound by the result insofar as signing the awards document, despite what Tomas Vera Cruz said at the end of his "Open Letter"?
"Today" must be a Nigerian translation
Todo Bem,
STP can, if they wish, refuse to sign the contract, however, they will sign very soon. They realize that the consequences of not signing would not be in their favor. They will just have to swallow the unfortunate fact that Senor Trovoado greedily and stupidly gave ERHC a criminal percentage to exploit their territorial waters way back. All is not lost, they still have the EEZ coming up, and STP can do alot to turn the situation around in their favor which I won't go into now.
Sam Dimka esta um idiota! Ele nao sabe nada! Nao pode dizer quando um annuncio aconteca ate depois.
Tchau!
"STP can do alot to turn the situation around in their favor which I won't go into now."
please elaborate !!!!!!!
and do you "KNOW" or do you "FEEL" STP WILL SIGN off on AWARDS
thanks
Hi Joe,
I'm new to this stock and blog, so forgive the newcomer type question. I was wondering what you expect in the share price if the awards are made as hoped for ERHC. Without understanding their relationship to Noble and the other cos. they partner with, I'm not sure what to expect in share price for ERHC. Just wondering your opinions, not holding you accountable in any way whatsoever.
Thanks.
I expect a minimum of $1.28 after awards, and that would be with our basic rights. With the blocks I expect we will be awarded, a $3 price a few days after awards, although I may opt for a $1.78 exit. It's hard to decide.
$6 buyout in July!
Thanks, Joe. I appreciate your candid opinion. Can you explain in a nutshell what their relationship is to Nobel or the other partners? Royalties? thanks again.
The sense I'm getting, Ken, is one of inevitability, but one lacking a clear timeline.
Seems to me that all sides of the STP equation know the final outcome of this process.
But given the general disappointment that will arise once the islanders realize that much of their oil-boom birthright has been signed away, all factions are positioning themselves defensively and offensively.
After all, presidential elex are slated for next year: And which Manhattan chief would want to stand for re-election after having sold his island to the Dutch for
trinkets?!
Sorry for the late reply, but I don't have as much time for the Net as I'd like.
Ciao,
Homeport,
Won't the signature bonuses be a mute point once the oil begins to flow? A steady flow of income for STP will let it's citizens see growth in education, health resources, etc. Surprised more of this arguement haven't been illustrated by Menenes and his allies. In the meantime, the signature bonuses from Block 1 and 2-6 (those percentages remaining after ERHE hasn't laid claim to) should help. Their 'oil-boom birthright' has not been signed away. Now it's up to it's politicians to see that future oil revenues are used for the greater good of its people and not to line their politician's pockets. This small island has been given a chance to flourish, how they choose to proceed is up to them.
just spoke to the jda. awards sunday. local time.
eom.
Joe,
You seem very optimistic regarding awards coming shortly. And Im not really sure why. I expect a delay. Why? Because that is what always happens.
Meanhwile Sao Tome seems to be oblivious to the fact that they are at the very least, irritating every single oil company that is involved in this process.
That should be of concern to them. What company would waste their time, energy, and resources bidding on anything in the Sao Tome EEZ when Sao Tome has such a poor concept of time?
They should have not allowed politics to creep into the equation to this degree. They are delaying future oil revenues and are harming their ability to be a country that any oil comapany would ever want to do business with.
Mutwadadi was right earlier in the week. No one knows when awards will be. Its all a guessing game at this point. But we do need some clarification on things:
1) Does the National Oil Commission have to approve the awards before they can be signed off by de Menenez or can he over rule them?
2) Does the Prime Minister have to sign off on awards or does de Menenez have the final and ultimate authority to make the process go forward?
3) Why was Sao Tome allowed to have so many different factions in the decision making process? With so many people making decisions it was very predictable that this would lead to chaos. Can you imagine if the Republicans and Democrats had to agree on every decision? Nothing would ever get done.
4) Why wasnt it the JDA recommendation, then the JMC reccomendation then the two Presidents? How did so many other beurocrats get involved and why were they allowed to?
Apparently technical capability, promises to fast track, and promises to spend greater dollars upfront for drilling have all been lost in the arguments.
The media makes it seem as if ERHC is offering nothing at all. Its absolutely ludicrous. I hope both sides of the arguments are being heard.
ie 3 wells in one yr vs. 1 well in 3 years, etc etc
The "media" you are referring to consists of just two online Websites located on an island of 150,000 people several hundred miles off the coast of Africa and read by fewer than 5,000 people a day - about the readership of this blog. Nonetheless, they are critical to our understanding of this tortuous - and torturous - process of getting block awards announced, and we're immensely appreciative of their contribution.
Joe,
I agree and didnt mean to come across as disrespectful of the Sao Tomean media. It just seems that the technical capability side is not getting much ink.
Well, that is a good point I've tried to make often, but they have not. So you're right on that...
FYI, STP National Petroleum Council spokesman, Ovidio Pequeno, told Sao Tome news conference Saturday that there were "procedural insufficiences" in the JDZ block awards process, but nothing that violated STP's legal framework.
"The process at no time damaged STP´s interests", Pequeno, who also serves as Foreign Minsiter, said, accoring to a Lusa news agency dispatch.
The news conference was held to report on the meeting Friday of the oil council.
Also at news conference Saturday (not sure if the same one), President Fradique de Menezes announced he was stepping down an chairman of the national oil council.
De Menezes said the head of state should keep his distance from the negotiations to avoid confusion.
He said he would "cease presiding" over the council meets and "move solely to a supervisory role", according to the Lusa dispatch.
(It may be read at www.lusa.pt in the reserved service)
Cheers,
The JDZ Treaty stipulates revenues will be split 40/60 with 40% to Sao Tome. It was Sao Tome that granted preferential rights to XOM and ERHE in the JDZ blocks. With XOM's 40% rights in Block 1, I do not believe Sao Tome received anything from the $123 signature bonus on Block 1. That's $49.2 mm NOT going to Sao Tome. Anyone know if this is correct?
So far as I know, it was Nigeria's intention to split that money on the 60:40 basis with Sao Tome, but the issue you raise is an important one and I think - from President de Menezes' analysis we've seen published here - that indeed, the Sao Tome-side option percentages are being deducted from their voting power on the JMC, and it is at least conceivable that they get nothing from Block 1 under an extension of the same principle that blocks their power to vote. I find this a sufficient basis for his description of the JDZ treaty as a "disastrous agreement." But this is so only so long as it takes to get oil royalties flowing, and then the tide will turn very quickly. But, remember: all the news we've seen suggests that yes, Sao Tome is going to get the $49 million - and probably when it signs off on the latest block awards.
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