Tuesday, March 21, 2006

At $0.72, ERHE Looks Like A Bargain, But Is It?

Given that we now have PSCs signed and are awaiting word from Chevron about their discovery in Block 1 and the extent to which it may extend under the midline between Blocks 1 and 2 - where the ERHC Energy/Sinopec is operator - shares at $0.72 seemed like a bargain to me this morning, so I picked up 41,000, almost all at $0.7225.

Update. 12:45pm ET, 3/21/06: I sold out at an average of $0.7544 for a profit of $1,285 after commissions, so I guess on some levels I was right, bu the market when I began to sell - with the bid at $0.775 - was extremely thin and promptly collapsed on a market order after limit orders failed to execute. It's now trading $0.752 x $0.757, so I probably bailed at the right time.

While the stock may yet fall back to the $0.50s, just as Hyperdynamics' did in its early days, the coming PSCs for Block 5 and Block 6 and the expected announcement from ChevronTexaco ought to push us up into the high $0.70s and perhaps the $0.80s again.

Mind you, the history of this stock argues against that: looking at its price history over the past three years, the greater likelihood is that it will fall to the $0.59 range - and then improve. We're just betting that a raft of outside circumstances may change the "pattern," if indeed any can be discerned.

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