The latest story on the crisis comes from Voice of America stringer Chinedu Offor, writing in Dec. 27 editions of the Daily Independent.
Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, a Catholic, showed up at a university teaching hospital to distribute Christmas gifts to patients at the Olabisi Onabanjo University Teaching Hospital in the city of Ago Iwoye, Ogun State.
-- State House, Nigeria
With major U.S. oil interests as firmly in the driver's seat in Washington as they have ever been during the Iraq war, the United States has threatened sanctions against Nigeria's president if he dares to defy them in another, brutal undeclared war for control of the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone.
U.S. experts expect to get 25 percent of the nation's oil needs from West Africa and the Gulf of Guineau - where the JDZ may have as much as 14 billion barrels of oil, the Houston Chronicle's Washington correspondent David Ivanovich reported last February - as early as a decade from now.
But American officials have fooled themselves into believing a large portion of that goal can only be achieved if ExxonMobil and Anadarko Petroleum overcome President Obasanjo's refusal to renege on awards of Block 2 and Block 4 to ERHC Energy and its partners, Pioneer Natural Resources and Addax Petroleum. That block alone may hold some 3.5 billion barrels of oil worth $200 billion at today's prices, according to Block 4 equity participant Centurion Energy (which later reduced its estimate to 2.5 billion barrels).
That's a far cry from the U.S. position just five weeks ago, when the U.S. Embassy in Abuja posted this message on its Website:
November 21, 2005
President Bush Has Not Corresponded With President Obasanjo Concerning A Mandate Extension
President Bush has not corresponded with President Obasanjo concerning a mandate extension to allow President Obasanjo to be considered a candidate in the Nigerian presidential elections in 2007.
The United States and Nigeria are close friends and partners and there is continuous communication at all levels between our two countries.
We have strongly supported Nigeria's transition to democracy beginning in 1999 and see the scheduled 2007 elections as an essential next step in Nigeria's democratic evolution.
End
Sonce that time - which coincided with the release of the Sao Tome probe report that tries to void rights granted to ERHC Energy which were hotly sought by ExxonMobil and Anadarko - the United States has mounted a campaign against Obasanjo's non-candidacy even as the Nigerian President continues to say he will not be a candidate.
It is believed American diplomats are deliberately trying to take advantage of Obasanjo's temper, which has been known to flare when provoked by foreign interference in Nigeria's domestic affairs, and in the face of delays, demands and foot-dragging by Sao Tome and multinational oil companies in the Joint Development Zone licensing process.
We believe the unfounded warnings they have issued will tempt the two-term president to seek a third term prohibited by the country's 1999 constitution rather than be dictated to by the United States. A 12-day public hearing to review the constitution's term-limit provisions will begin in the state of Bauchi, in Nigeria, on Jan. 8, 2006.
The office of the Nigerian presidency, in an interview with the Nigerian daily Vanguard published today, however, told reporters who asked about a possible successor, "'How many are capable of running the economy and fighting corruption the way it’s being done today? How many are capable of restoring the future of Nigeria, in the international arena as it’s being done today? How many could have boosted foreign reserve, increased agricultural production, consolidated the banks, and revived the manufacturing sector as it's being today?' he asked in an apparent reaction to a statement by the Catholic Archbishop of Abuja, Dr John Onayekan. Dr. Onayekan had said at least 5,000 Nigerians could run Nigeria."
But another statement from the President's office was reported by ThisDay Online, which said, "Perhaps feeling the heat of the agitation against speculated third term agenda of President Olusegun Obasanjo, the Presidency said yesterday that it had started searching earnestly for a credible successor, adding that the President was interested and willing to relinquish power at the end of his tenure in 2007."
Speaking for himself in a Christmas message, Obasanjo restated his goals with clarity and force on Christmas Day:
“We must not allow ourselves to be deterred from our goal of a just, fair and prosperous nation by the enemies of progress in our midst, who, having had their selfish and corrupt ways of easy living on the collective wealth of our people thwarted by this administration, are now ganging up in condemnable alliances whose sole intention is to return the nation to the evil days from which we are just emerging.
“This administration remains ever concerned for the welfare and well-being of Nigerians. We shall therefore continue to do everything possible to ameliorate their hardships and ensure that the funds available to the three tiers of government in the country are efficiently deployed to meet the basic needs of all instead of being corruptly diverted to the bottomless accounts of a greedy and selfish elite.”
While many Americans will believe the Bush administration's campaign to stop a third Obasanjo term is a proactive effort to ensure the persistence of democracy in Nigeria, 30 of the nation's 36 governors have pledged to support a democratic change to the 1999 Nigerian constitution that would allow Obasanjo to legally run again. According to the Daily Independent, even legal steps to change the constitution would catalyze dilpomatic reprisals.
Unlike a similar constitutional amendment adopted by Congress that would have allowed President Harry S Truman to seek a third term because Congress ratified it in 1951, while Truman was still president, the Nigerian constitution applies to the current officeholder, President Obasanjo, who was President of Nigeria when it was ratified. Many legal experts believe it should not have hampered Obasanjo in seeking a third term.
Here is a historical footnote:
Specifically excepting Truman from its provisions, the 22nd Amendment passed Congress on March 21, 1947. After Truman won a second term in 1948, it was ratified on February 27, 1951 (1,439 days). Truman could have run for a third term, but bowed out early before campaigning began. -- U.S. Constitution.net
The United States wants Obasanjo out to make way for Anadarko-ExxonMobil's would-be operatorship of Block 4, which might fulfill a national energy security goal, and to permit a new round of cozy relations with Nigeria.
Those desired relationships are paralleled in neighboring Equatorial Guinea, where testimony provided to the Senate Commerce Committee over the past two years shows companies such as ExxonMobil and its partner in Block 1, ChevronTexaco, bribed officals to gain oil concessions there.
New transparency laws have made that much more difficult in the Nigeria-DRSTP Joint Development Zone, however, leaving several oil giants. including four of those caught in the Equatorial Guinea probe, foaming mad and desperately pushing the White House to overstep its bounds in Nigerian affairs.
With statements clashing and newspaper headlines growing ever more ominous, the only clear observation ERHC On The Move can make is that the White House should not allow multinational oil companies to formulate and execute American foreign policy.
Here is the lead article from the Daily Independent Website on the latest U.S. threat:
U.S. threatens sanctions
Obasanjo won’t go for it, says Mbang
By Chinedu Offor (in Washington) and
Stella Odueme (in Lagos)
Washington proposes to take several punitive measures against Abuja if President Olusegun Obasanjo seeks a third term.
Tension is growing between the two countries over Nigeria's future leadership.
To cap it, the United States Government is reportedly furious with what State Department officials called "an unwarranted attack on the country with the tacit support of the Nigerian leadership by Presidential Spokesman, Femi Fani Kayode".
He recently rebuked Washington over comments by serving and former administration officials who frown at suggestions of a third term bid by Obasanjo.
Sources confirmed that the [U.S.] government has taken the unusual step of informing members of Congress of a possible leadership problem in Nigeria.
The notice to senior lawmakers of both parties also contained an earlier assessment about the possible disintegration of Nigeria.
"If the present administration seeks to stay in office longer than its current term, the scenario in the assessment could come sooner than expected" senior government officials said.
Measures that could be applied against Nigeria include military, economic and diplomatic.
The U.S is a major supplier of military hardware to Nigerian forces and the administration assists the country in economic policies, such as the recent debt pardon by the Paris Club.
Congressional sources said the U.S supported the debt forgiveness after obtaining assurances from Obasanjo of a smooth hand over to another leader at the expiration of his term.
"The deal was to give a new leadership in Nigeria less economic burden to chart a new course for the country, but all bets will be off if Obasanjo amends the Constitution to prolong his term", said officials.
Reminded that the U.S could be seen to be dabbling in the internal affairs of another nation, one insisted that a leadership crisis in Nigeria could have a "devastating domino effect" on the whole region and would "severely hurt the administration’s goal of encouraging democracy, term limits and good government on the continent".
According to sources the U.S. administration decided to pay closer attention to the "persistent rumours" of a plot to extend the term of office in Nigeria after failing to get a clear denial from Abuja.
Recent reports that 30 governors and several of their state Senate and House of Representatives reportedly signed on for a constitutional amendment for fear of being investigated by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) also causes anxiety.
"If this story is corroborated, the administration would have no option than to consult with its allies on the need to tell Abuja in clear terms that such an action would not be supported by the international community," American officials said.
But back in Lagos, Prelate of Methodist Church of Nigeria, Sunday Mbang, expressed confidence that the President would not go for a third term in 2007.
His words: “People don’t know Obasanjo, that is why they are talking like that. I have known him for long, he is not going for a third term. When he finishes his second term, he is returning to Ota and I am very confident about it”.
He charged Nigerians to embrace the wind of change in the spirit of Christmas to make things better for all, just as Jesus Christ, whose birthday is being celebrated this season, came to make the world a better place.
Nigerians should shun corrupt practices to move the nation forward, Mbang pleaded.
“In spite of so many churches packed full every Sunday and with the huge crusades, corruption, bad habit are everywhere. It looks like Nigerians inside and outside out are dirty.
“Jesus Christ has come once again this Christmas to change lives and I hope that this Christmas, the lives of Nigerians will change. I hope that policemen who have been collecting N20 on the roads would stop taking it, NEPA would give us light and bad roads would be repaired in the New Year so that the lives of Nigerians would change for the better. That is the Christmas message.
“Anybody who collects bribe during the elections in 2007 will die, that is what I asked God to do. That person will die completely, from beginning to end.
“Nobody will rig the elections, nobody will cause confusion in this country, no more strike, everybody will live peacefully in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit”.
-- Daily Independent of Nigeria
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