While there is some indication the person may have been a U.S. Dept. of Energy economist (who denies it - see below), the reporter could have confused "Mike Cohen" with Herman Cohen, who served in the Bush Administration as Asst. Secretary of State for Africa and now works as a senior advisor to the Global Coalition for Africa and the Intergovernmental Policy Forum. Another Mike Cohen left the White House in 2003 after serving as an education advisor to President Bush.
There is no Mike Cohen in the employ of the U.S. Dept. of State, according to its personnel list.
And a well-known Africa reporter, Mike Cohen of Bloomberg News, says it's not him, either:
Hi Joe. I read your blog. I'm not sure where they got this, but it has nothing to do with me. I also haven't done any stories from Nigeria lately, so doubt there was a mix-up there. Regards, Mike
Yet today's attack on the Nigerian president's personal spokesman is likely to be played as probably the most vicious verbal assault a U.S. diplomat has aimed at an African leader since the day's of Uganda's Idi Amin - at least until the Guardian of Nigeria learns that Cohen is not a State Dept. official.
Cohen's alleged comment, played as the top story on the Guardian Website and in today's print editions, is certain to arouse deep-seated and probably justified anger at Aso Rock, the presidential mansion, because it both dismisses President Obasanjo's frequent rejections of a third-term presidential bid, which is prohibited by the 1999 Nigerian constitution, and also attacks his personal spokesman by comparing him to a despised figure who is now facing prosecution by a tribunal in Baghdad for crimes against humanity.
Aziz, ironically, was most noted for having said that the reason the U.S. went to war in Iraq was encapsulated in two words, "'Oil' and 'Israel.'" And there is little doubt that oil, not Israel, is the key motivator of "Cohen's" statement, the latest in a series of bizarre inflammatory articles in the Nigerian press, some of which were apparently placed on leading newspaper Websites by computer hackers.
Aziz, ironically, was most noted for having said that the reason the U.S. went to war in Iraq was encapsulated in two words" "Oil' and 'Israel.'" And there is little doubt that oil, not Israel, is the key motivator of "Cohen's" statement.
Unfortunately, because Cohen, whose name means priest in Hebrew, is likely to be presumed Jewish by African readers, his statement is likely to be seen by millions of Muslims in Nigeria as representing Israel's desire to see Muslim nations in the Middle East diminished through reduced U.S. dependence on their oil resources.
But oil has been behind an entire series of poorly-understood and complex contretemps which seem to be heading toward a Nigerian climax rather soon.
ExxonMobil and Anadarko Petroleum lost a bidding war last May for $200 billion worth of crude oil believed to be awaiting the winners of Block 4 in the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone - oil that may be valued at a trillion dollars when it reaches world markets eight to 10 years from now. Exxon currently has a huge stake in Nigeria, according to the Country Analysis Brief done by economists for the Energy Information Administration, a semi-autonomous agency of the U.S. Dept of Energy:
ExxonMobil, currently producing around 570,000 bbl/d in Nigeria, plans to invest $11 billion in the country's oil sector between 2003 and 2011, increasing production to 1.2 million bbl/d. The majority of the increase will occur at the 150,000-bbl/d Erha development, slated to come online in 2006. In addition, ExxonMobil's 400 million barrel Yoho field began initial production of 90,000 bbl/d in February 2003. The $1.2 billion field is located in the shallow waters of Block OML-104. Although Yoho's full-field output of 150,000 bbl/d was expected in late 2004, the timetable for completion has been pushed back to mid-2005. At that time, a temporary FPSO will be replaced by a floating storage and offloading (FSO) vessel. Associated natural gas will be re-injected to maintain field pressures and to eliminate flaring.
...
Development of ExxonMobil's offshore Erha oil field will cost $2.6 billion. The field, located on OPL 209, is due to come onstream at a rate of 150,00 bbl/d in early 2006. ExxonMobil's $1.7 billion East Area Additional Oil Recovery (AOR) project, which presently produces 750,000 bbl/d of oil equivalent, will improve production by 110,000 bbl/d, increasing recoverable reserves by 500 million barrels by 2006.
...
In February 2005, Nigeria announced that the award of five oil blocks in the Joint Development Zone (JDZ), shared by Nigeria and neighboring Sao Tome and Principe (STP), depends on whether ExxonMobil chooses to exercise its preferential rights to several of the blocks. Twenty-six companies submitted bids for the blocks by the conclusion of the 2004 licensing round. In December 2004, Nigeria and Sao Tome opened the second licensing round for blocks in the JDZ. The JDZ reportedly holds reserves of 11 billion barrels and could potentially yield up to 3 million bbl/d in the next 2-3 years. Development is also occurring in the waters surrounding the JDZ. In March 2005, Spinnaker Exploration (US) purchased a 12.5 percent interest in OPL Block 256 from Ocean Energy, a subsidiary of Devon Energy. Drilling of the Tari 1 exploratory well at OPL Block 256, located 125 miles off the Nigerian coast near the JDZ, has commenced. Three wells are planned for the block.
Mike Cohen of the EIA (see below) writes country analysis briefs for the EIA, by the way, although he isn't credited with the Nigerian brief; one of his 2005 briefs is on Russia, and his report on Azerbaijan (linked in the second paragraph, above) mentions ExxonMobil projects more than a dozen times. However, Cohen had "a little bit" of input in the Nigerian brief, and in the ExxonMobil coverage, EIA's Nigeria brief author Elias Johnson said, adding that "I'm pretty sure that Mike reviewed that one. ... We work together, and we review each other's work." Asked if Cohen was an "expert on ExxonMobil," Johnson said "Yes."
Since they lost the JDZ's Block 4, the two companies, aided by powerful allies like Anadarko's Vice President for Governmental Affairs, Greg Pensabene, whose wife Judy is Chief Counsel to the Senate Energy Committee, and ExxonMobil chairman emeritus Lee Raymond, who as chairman of Esso gave President Bush's party $1.37 million for the 2000 elections, have worked tirelessly behind the scenes to undo the awards through a spate of investigations, delayed decision-making and other tactics which have angered Nigerians and left Sao Tome still mired in deep poverty after the expected boon of the 2004 Licensing Round.
The United States is hoping to meet 25 percent of its oil needs with oil from the Gulf of Guinea in a relatively short time frame, but those hopes are challenged by the award of operatorships in Blocks 2 and 4 and substantial equity in all five blocks won May 31. 2005, by ERHC Energy and its partners, Pioneer Natural Resources in Blocks 2 and 3 and Addax Oil in Block 4.
And, again, then there is the Mike Cohen at the U.S. Dept. of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), who tracks ExxonMobil and other multinational oil and gas projects around the world. Interestingly, the article says the Mike Cohen in the story spoke "with The Guardian on phone from Washington yesterday." Cohen answered his phone at the EIA this morning on the first ring.
"I've ben trying to figure out what's going in," Cohen said, but until we directed him to the Guardian, he said, he had not seen the story. "I'm not the Secretary of State for African Affairs. This is not me. This is ridiculous," he told ERHC On The Move.
What we think might have happened is that the Guardian's reporter got Herman Cohen's name mixed up, remembering it as "Mike," and called the U.S. government locator switchboard asking for a "Mike Cohen." As one of the most prominent Mike Cohens in government, the operator would probably have given him the one at the EIA, who may have spoken freely without being terribly clear about whom he was talking to, alone at the office in the middle of the holiday season. But for all we know, Cohen might have initiated the call; it does appear that a high-level figure is placing forged and/or inflammatory articles about a third term in the Nigerian press.
Here is the Guardian article, from its Website on Wednesday:
U.S. insists on monitoring democracy in Nigeria
By Idowu Ajanaku
TOP officials of the United States government have re-affirmed America's interest in Nigeria's democracy.
Reiterating the country's recent position, a U.S. official said yesterday that America would not stop monitoring the six-year-old democratic rule of President Olusegun Obasanjo.
The U.S. decision came against the background of a recent warning by Mr. Femi Fani-Kayode, special assistant to the President on Public Affairs, that Washington should steer clear of Nigeria's political engineering.
Fani-Kayode accused America of reacting to a hypothetical situation on the alleged third term bid of President Obasanjo.
But the U.S. Secretary of State for African Affairs, Mike Cohen, insisted that America would continue to watch the political situation in the country.
Speaking with The Guardian on phone from Washington yesterday, Cohen said his recent comments on the alleged third term bid were to clear the misgivings about the position of the U.S. on the alleged third term bid.
Nigeria's Nobel laureate, Prof. Wole Soyinka, had accused the Western power of backing Obasanjo's third term bid because of the gains they derive from the economic reforms of the current administration.
Cohen stated that more than any other country, his country worked tirelessly to ensure the return of democracy to Nigeria.
According to him, apart from imposing economic sanctions on Nigeria and placing a travelling ban on some of the leaders who stalled democracy in Nigeria, American officials suffered untold hardship from the then military government.
Cohen recalled how the former American Ambassador, Walter Carrington was harassed by security agents for helping the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), an umbrella body that fought the military junta of the late Gen. Sani Abacha.
Carrington also helped to persuade the leadership of Afenifere to participate in the transition to give it credibility in 1999.
In fact, Carrington alongside Senator Abraham Adesanya, Ayo Adebanjo, Solanke Onasanya, the late Bola Ige, Ayo Opadokun among others were tear-gassed by the police at the Surulere home of the late Onasanya.
Justifying America's interest in the survival of Nigeria's democracy, Cohen said that the United States attached so much importance to peace and stability in Nigeria.
Besides, Cohen noted that in as much as America would not want to dabble in the internal affairs of Nigeria, his country would ensure Nigeria's compliance with the rule of law. This, he said, would strengthen democracy and its structures.
While calling on Nigerians and their leaders to ensure the survival of democracy, the American official noted that there was no alternative to this political system.
Reminded that Obasanjo had not indicated his interest in a third term, Cohen said that from the history of Nigeria, especially in the last 10 years, it was a country where anything could happen. To him, the issue is not whether Obasanjo has spoken or not, it is rather whether the system is not being used to promote such an agenda.
His words: "The same drama also played itself out during Abacha with the political parties adopting a serving general to the surprise of the entire world. So, America does not want to take chance."
Reminded that Fani-Kayode had warned on the need for the U.S. to steer clear of Nigeria's politics, Cohen compared him to the former Iraqi Information Minister, Tahir Aziz, who enjoyed propaganda.
"Even at a time Bagdad, the Iraqi capital, fell to the Allied Forces, Aziz was still lying to the people; that is what the presidential spokesman is doing," he said.
But he praised Obasanjo's anti-corruption war, which he described as unprecedented in the history of Nigeria.
To him, if corruption is tamed in Nigeria, the nation will be on its journey to greatness.
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