JMC Meeting Again Delayed; No Date Set; Menezes Believed To Be Blocking All But Highest Bids

Consistent with the pattern of endless delays that has characterized the awards process thus far, a Nigeria-Sao Tome Joint Development Authority spokesman today withdrew the promised April 22 meeting date and said the meeting may not occur until April 26 and may last 4 to 5 days, according to the latest news posted by oiljunior, a reliable and well-informed source and ERHE long who spoke to Dimka minutes ago.

Here is oiljunior's post:

*** Sam Dimka call*** I found out possible reason for sell off. I called Sam Dimka and he said April 22 is definately not the JMC meeting date. He said April 26 is the probable date but that is speculative, and the meeting could take 4-5 days. And he would not say if awards would be announced at that time.

The fact that an April 26 meeting date is speculative calls into question the integrity of the process, as longs well remember that at the meeting scheduled for April 22 last year - when the stock zoomed to an all-time high at $0.96 - the meeting was suddenly cancelled and all bets were off. The delay at that time meant there would be no block awards beyond Block 1, and the process took another year.

Today's news suggests that President Fradique Menezes of Sao Tome and Principe is barring the door to the award of any blocks at less than the highest bid. If he continues to do so, it is possible that the blocks would have to be rebid, or that the highest bidders would be unable to pony up the promised cash for their signature bonus.

Few bidders, for instance, would bother trying to match the $175 million offered by Conoil, a Nigerian independent that probably does not have that kind of cash, when they can participate in the Nigerian block auction far more cheaply with similar prospects of oil.

Menezes could block the process by refusing to approve the awards and making his representatives on the JMC unavailable for a meeting.

At 12:26pm EST, the share price stands at $0.63 on 1,265,600 shares of volume, with the bid at $0.62 and the ask at 0.63.

At 12:30pm EST, the buy-sell balance had dropped from 2:1 to 1.5:1 in favor of sells, with 55,000 shares uncertain. Volume at 12:47 was 1,354,200.

Update, 1:05pm EST, 4/15/05: The share price is recovering once again - it's done this several times in the past two months - and now stands at $0.645. The bid dropped at 1:11 to $0.63 x $0.64, as volume reached 1,491,800 shares. 15 minutes ago, the buys with 529,715 lagged behind sells with 782,350 and 55,864 uncertain.

Ironically, when ERHC On The Move challenged the claim of reporters from The Punch of Nigeria that the awards would come on April 28, we suggested that the price would fall to $0.61 if that proved to be true. Now it does appear to be proving true, and the price did fall to $0.605. Perhaps we should call today's fracas "The Punch Revenge."

Update, 2:40pm EST, 4/15/05: The price and ask now stands at $0.62, with the bid at $0.615, on volume of 1,964,000 shares. at 2:21pm EST, sells were 1,023,455 and buys 760,435, with 104,164 uncertain.

Update, 2:48pm EST, 4/15/05: We're back at $0.605, the low of the day, with volume pushing past the 2 million mark to 2,023,300. The bid is now $0.60, the lowest of the day, and the ask, also at its low, at $0.605.

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