A Day To Wait

The Joint Ministerial Council of the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Authority is meeting now to decide the winners of five blocks of the JDA's Joint Development Zone in the hugely oil-rich Gulf of Guinea, and shareholders of ERHC Energy (OTC symbol: ERHE) are understandably anxious to hear the results.

They are guaranteed at least 14 percent of the oil in nine blocks under rights they gained in 1999, which were ensured by treaty in 2003, and with $55 oil at today's opening, are valued in the billions.

In the meantime, the stock hit a 2005 high of $0.825 last Friday morning, closed at $0.815 Friday afternoon, and will likely open this morning at $0.83 or above after a steady, loping run from $0.38 last November. For that reason, while there is good news ahead, this morning is a time to be careful.

There will be sellers - some of whom pretend they are solid longs - taking advantage of the two-day meeting to take some profits and shore up their portfolios with lower-priced shares, and investors who are new to the stock may be alarmed by it. Believe me, these people are not smarter than you, and they don't know something you do not. But their posts will blithely say, "Hey, do you think the market makers know something we don't?" as they sell for profits and wait for you to sell so they can buy some more, also to sell.

Don't sell. Hang on.

The selling means nothing; these folks do this every time there is a runup, and a lot of the time they fail to get back in at an attractive price, and have to wait all the longer to make real money. Meanwhile, they will post alarming information to make that happen.

Be careful: ERHC Energy is a long-term investment that will indeed shoot up to new heights this week, but the action down on the ground will be choppy and even violent. The "new heights" will be eclipsed in a few months or less. You'll be awfully glad to be there then.

Those who have been in ERHC Energy for a couple of years have seen many, many false predictions, and I would think most of us would be surprised if they suddenly stopped now. We have also seen many, many newspaper and wire service articles with serious, panic-invoking mistakes. I made such a mistake myself here two weeks ago. We who have been here a while expect to see some more; like the false predictions, the false alarms won't stop for the JMC.

Even with a mild morning selloff, ERHE should enjoy at least a 5 percent gain by the end of the day, and old hands in this stock will tell you that after the profit-taking, the late-afternoon trading can be so volatile your heart will leap and careen from minute to minute.

We could hit $0.90 in the course of a few minutes and $0.85 a few minutes later, and $0.95 a few minutes after that.

I recommend that you read the post a couple down from this one headlined, "Breathe," and take that advice. This is not a day to sell. No matter how painful doing so may be, it is a day to wait, with patience and with hope.