Saturday, September 17, 2005

Security Issues Present Grave Challenges To West Africa Explorers

The entire coastal region of West Arica, and many of the national and state governments there, pose substantial risks - both potential and ongoing - to the motley crew of majors, mid-tiers and minnows who want to exploit some 30 billion barrels of undiscovered oil believed the b there, an UpstreamOnline report by Barry Morgan suggests.

ERHC is prominently mentioned in the piece via its partnerships with Noble Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources, and singled out for its "strong tie" to President Olusegun Obasanjo's Nigerian presidency.

But the overall thurst of the piece is to suggest that U.S. security efforts in the West African Gulf of Guineau and political efforts onshore need to be ramped up to meet security challenges including a vow by terrorist leader Osama bin Laden to make Nigeria the nexus of his efforts in Africa.

Morgan repeats the comments of a NATO General concerning the fragility of the Nigerian federation, and that comment was one citing a statement to Congress from the director of the CIA warning that Nigeria may cease to exist as a federal state by 2010 (see ERHC On The Move archives for more).

If this is a time to stress security concerns - and it undoubtedly is, as U.S. drilling efforts have not yet begun in earnest in the Guil of Guinea's oil-rich Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone, and good planning can support them admirably - it is also shaded somewhat by a pessimism about the value of investments in the region.

One could almost read it as a transparent effort to reduce the growing interest in ERHC Energy that has come to the fore in recent weeks with an article in the Penny Oil Speculator and a redesigned ERHC Website. There have been determined efforts on the part of unknown forces to keep the company's share price in the $0.40 range, while it becomes more apparent every day that the company is worth far more to a p[ospective buyer.

It was Morgan, too, who revealed that a mid-tier player had offered $2 a share for the company and that the offer was considered when its board met in August. On feels he played a tune for the other side, hoping small investors will dance away from the stock in anticipation of problems even as the big sharks circle to snatch it up on the cheap.

The piece is also an effective advertisement for a private supplier of mercenary armies and a private enterprises-wide telecom solution that are or want to be, respectively, deployed in the region. Both are U.S.-based and enjoy growing influence.

Military Professional Resources (MPRI), headed by former U.S. Army chief of staff Gen. Carl E. Vuono, has 150 "projects" around the globe and is headquartered in Virginia. MPRI is a division L-3 Communications' Government Services Group, also headed by Vuono, which books more than $1 billion a year in revenues.

MPRI came under scrutiny by Z Magazine in 1998 for its role in Africa during the Clinton administration:

Another insidious element of the Clinton agenda for Africa is the African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI). Despite a sordid history of assassination, terrorism, and destabilization, the Pentagon is now eager to remilitarize the continent, this time for the sake of corporate profitability. Many U.S. companies (and even some U.S. embassies) must now rely on private mercenary outfits, such as Defense Systems Ltd. (DSL), Military Professional Services Inc. (MPRI), and Executive Outcomes to protect themselves in “unstable” Africa. For instance, Chevron has subcontracted Air Scan based in Titusville, FL (managed by retired Brigadier General Joe Stringham who used to run U.S. clandestine operations in El Salvador) to protect its offshore oil concessions in Angola’s volatile Cabinda province. Of course, it would be much “cheaper” for private investors to have public taxpayers kick in their “fair share” — say $15 to 20 million per year — and basically hire the Pentagon to coordinate African security instead. Under Clinton, the U.S. had already invested $175 million between 1991 and 1995 for training 3,400 African military officers — mostly from dictatorships.

The New York Times also took note of the company in a 2001 article by Michael Gordon:

Macedonian officers are also preoccupied by the war. An American- financed consulting business, Military Professional Services Inc., made up of retired American officers, quietly suspended its program here because of the paucity of training and because the Macedonians had spread rumors that the consultants were somehow linked to the Albanian rebels.

Infinity Global Telecom (misidentified as Infinity Wiorld Telecom in the article) is based in Mountain View, Calif. and the African island of Mauritius, and has telecommunication interests around the globe.

Here is Morgan's Sept. 15 article from UpstreamOnline:

Nigeria looks to secure its future as major supplier to US

THE US may plan to take more than 25% of its hydrocarbon needs from western and central Africa by 2015, practically doubling present imports from the region, but Washington will not be alone in seeking to unlock the area's untapped riches. Players from the east are already competing for proven assets and prospective acreage.

Nigeria too is playing its own game. Strict local content rules applied to the latest licensing round coupled with preferential treatment for companies willing to invest downstream in return for prized deep-water plots left the majors deeply miffed and they stayed away in droves.

Korean National Oil Company and Taiwan's Chinese Petroleum Corporation swept into prime position, roundly outbidding medium-sized US rivals such as Devon Energy. India's ONGC-Videsh won junior equity but Beijing's three oil giants did not even get a look-in.

Clearly there will be considerable pressure brought to bear on Abuja to relax its regime ahead of the next round, planned before 2007. There are also technical questions to answer recent probes in the western Niger Delta deep disappointed the pundits, prompting established players to show caution in committing dollars to unproven plays.

Nonetheless, old Africa hands along with relative newcomers to the Gulf of Guinea such as Noble Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources will be jockeying for position in the Joint Development Zone, reputed to contain upwards of 10 billion barrels, managed by Nigeria and Sao Tome under a bilateral protocol.

Both entered the fray in partnership with ERHC Energy, the US minnow with strong links to Abuja's power-brokers.

Success with Chevron's upcoming wildcat in the JDZ Block-1 will boost confidence in the zone and focus Washington's hawks on how to shore up its interests in the area.

The US is already backing construction of a deep-water port at Neves on Sao Tome and negotiating a military support facility on the archipelago.

With substantial upstream investment onshore Nigeria by Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell, Abuja aims to raise oil output from 2.5 million barrels per day to 4 million bpd by 2010, with liquefied natural gas exports earning more than crude by 2012.

Nigeria is already the fifth biggest crude supplier to the US, yet offers poor security.

An upsurge in piracy in south-eastern Nigeria coupled with mounting ethnic unrest has led one US Nato general to warn the federation may fall apart under the strain.

Incensed by Abuja's refusal to allocate lucrative oil licences to southern indigenes, ethnic Ijaw leaders this month promised to sabotage exploration and production efforts by the Koreans and Taiwanese, especially plans to lay gas pipelines to the northern states.

There are fears the country could implode, bringing down the entire sub-region. “It's a 3,000-mile (4,800-kilometre) coastline with no security,” agrees Lieutenant Commander Daniel Trott of US Naval Forces Europe.

More to the point, Osama bin Laden has officially marked the country down for “liberation” effectively declaring the African interior a war zone.

Already, US forces are stretched throughout the Sahel from Nouakchott to Ndjamena, mopping up terror cells and training partner-states to do the same. Fed by Algerian intelligence, US policymakers fear Mauritania's Salafist-style terror cells may spread to the oil patch.

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo this month approved an anti-terror Bill covering everything from kidnapping to the destruction of infrastructure, even specifying fixed platforms on the continental shelf.

At the same time, Defence Chief of Staff General Alex Ogomudia announced a combined police-military operation to step up protection of oil installations in the delta.

In a parallel pitch, Nigerian oil moguls will this month hear overtures from New York-based Infinity World Telecom to support a $500 million scheme to link all offshore fields to the global telecom system.

Direct links to onshore facilities are also mooted, bypassing reliance on the national utility and underscoring Abuja's concern to keep oil flowing at all costs.

It is a preventive strategy to keep terror off the seas by developing partnerships and capacities, says Trott. To this end, the US is convening a second gathering of regional naval chiefs in Ghana this December.

While making headway in Sao Tome through US corporate ambition in the JDZ, US military and officials have encountered resistance in Equatorial Guinea, where Beijing's influence is rising.

Both states are coup-prone with Malabo unable to provide effective security for offshore installations, leaving companies to deploy private guards.

US company Military Professional Resources has been contracted to train local forces to plug the gap, but ostensibly without any quid pro quo on Malabo's deteriorating human rights front.

Of all the potential hotspots, post-war Angola has pleasantly surprised pessimists. Yet issues of financial probity persist, both in Luanda where output growth has been slower, and also in Malabo where oil revenue boosted Equatoral Guinea's GDP by 60% in the past two years.

The US Securities & Exchange Commission has dragged ExxonMobil, Marathon, Amerada Hess and Devon Energy into protracted enquiries to determine a breach of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Only Nigeria looks set to implement the UK-inspired Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, but progress is slow and the region will likely continue to be source of embarrassment for western E&P operators.

Recoverable offshore reserves across the West African arc from Ivory Coast to southern Africa are estimated to be in the region of 30 billion barrels and the influential Washington and Jerusalem-based Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies believes this prospectivity must drive US foreign policy.


15 September 2005 23:02 GMT | last updated: 15 September 2005 23:02 GMT

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