Thursday, April 24, 2008

Another Day, Another $0.06

Shares of ERHC Energy dropped sharply again on Wednesday after the uninspiring shareholders' meeting. ERHE was down 5 cents, or 13 percent, for the second straight day.

The chart-readers say resistance at $0.39 may keep us at the current level, but I'm hoping - sorry to say it - we will see a return to the $0.20 era, where I'd like to replenish my hoard of shares.

How likely is that? Less so every day we get closer to identifying a drillship and setting to work. It's only because we thought we had one on the way to the Gulf of Guineau already that we rose to $0.60.

One event that might get me those cheap shares is an indictment, but as I have warned before, if one comes down, the sudden collapse of the share price is likely to be followed by an almost-as-sudden rebound the same day and over two or three following days. People who can play both ways that day may do extremely well for themselves, but it is difficult if not impossible to find short shares at some brokerages (like E*Trade) for this stock.

I saw several posters were calling others to account for their rosy and false (or at least very flawed) predictions about the outcome of the shareholders meeting. I think that's a healthy turn of events. But I fear some of those calling the kettle black were calling it white themselves just a few weeks ago.

One note on the session: Michael Madigan's remarks to a questioner about statutory limits on the federal crimes alleged against management did not do a lot to clarify the issue. He said he thought the statutory limit had already been exceeded, but offered no backup for that position. If there is a statutory limit, however, the DOJ has a laundry list of various crimes at a wide variety of times they might employ to bring the charges without fear of statutory limits.

His most compelling comment, however, was the one we've been stating for more than a year: there is no evidence available to the Justice Dept. to bring an indictment in the first place.

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