No one can de absolutely sure what has caused the most recent wave of selling, which yesterday saw Buys eclipsed by Sells by a 3:1 margin on the news that JDA contract signings would not occur until next year.
The sole prospect for a takeoff from these levels now appears to be the rumors mutwadadi has heard in Nigeria concerning a possible buyout of ERHC "a few months" from now. If we can get a few months down the road on that hope, then possibly we can get another four or five months down to the Production Sharing Agreements for our new properties in Blocks 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 of the Joint Development Zone.
Update, 3:21pm EDT, 6/23/05: At the Surge, we were selling at $0.505, the high of the day and the Ask - but we just slipped to $0.48. The Bid has fallen to $0.48, and the Ask at 3:21 had fallen to $0.485 but went back to $0.50. Volume is 848,946 after a very quick series of large trades.
Update, 2:18pm EDT, 6/23/05: The price is $0.50, the Ask, as volume picks up a little, now to 511,656 shares. The Bid is $0.49, as market makers and accumulators still hope to get in cheaply. To clear the record, I still have my 120,000 shares, which I very nearly sold yesterday. My average price is $0.4379, and my profit at the moment is $7,269.30.
Update, 1:40pm EDT, 6/23/05: "Time passes slowly up here in the mountains," Judy Collins sang, and it passes even more slowly watching ERHE volume rise on the OTC Bulletin Board today. We've been stalled now for half an hour, reaching 320,656 with the price at $0.49, the Bid, and the Ask at $0.495.
Update, 1:23pm EDT, 6/23/05: The price is $0.49, the Bid, and the Ask is $0.495 as volume finally inches over 300K to 310,656 shares.
Update, 12:48pm EDT, 6/23/05: The price is $0.495, the Bid is $0.49 and the Ask is $0.4999. Volume has crawled to 277,156, and we may experinece one of the slowest days in recent memory.
Update, 12:15pm EDT, 6/23/05: The price is $0.4999, the Ask, and the Bid is $0.49. No big buy has emerged; volume is a tepid 273,156 shares.
Update, 12:10pm EDT, 6/23/05: Markvol1 has another update, from his new "technical" contact. The information is pretty much the same:
****UPDATE: CALLED NEW CONTACT******
I just spoke with the person (can't spell or pronounce his name) that Dimka forwarded me to. His phone number is 011 234 9 523 5301. I asked him what his role is and he explained that he deals with Technical matters. He said Sam was correct that Press Statement will be issued once all acceptance letters are in. He did confirm that deadline was today. Also, I asked him about PSC's and if all PSC's had to be signed and announced at same time or if the PSC's would be signed and announced as they are negotiated and completed. He explained to me in very simple terms that there are 5 blocks and different companies in each block and that some PSC's would be done much much sooner than others. He asked him about Gomes comments in the Reuters article that PSC's wouldn't be done until end of this year and he said the JDA has to be very cautious and they don't want to speculate on dates.
Update, 12:06pm EDT, 6/23/05: The price is $0.49 now, and volume remains slow at 273,006. Interesting that the Ask is a four-decimal number, $0.4999, while the Ask is at $0.49. The four-digit Ask may indicate an institutional sale of substantial size.
Update, 11:56am EDT, 6/23/05: Markvol1, who speaks often with Nigeria-Sao Tome Joint Development Authority spokesman Sam Dimka, reports on his conversation with Dimka rthis morning. Admittedly, we're all grasping for straws here insofar as the slow pace of Production Sharing Agreements, but here's the latest:
****UPDATE****
Just spoke with Sam Dimka at the JDA. He said he "expects to be briefed today or tomorrow" on acceptance of winners for the 5 blocks. He also said that once this is done JDA will Press Release all details. Also, I asked him about timing of PSC's and Gomes comments about end of year. He said that JDA has to be very cautious of timelines given out (because of all past delays). I asked him if PSC's could be done much sooner and he said "obviously some will be negotiated and done very soon." He did not want to speculate which ones but this was VERY encouraging. Not sure why he said obviously but I like it. Sam gave me another contact that would be able to give me more info. I will call and update if I get anything.
Update, 11:38am EDT, 6/23/05: We're at $0.485 now, the Bid, with volume still slow at 252,056 shares and the Ask still at $0.50. According to ADVFN, which is delayed 15 minutes, someone picked up 83,165 shares between 10:45 and 11:12 at $0.495. For the day until 11:27am, Buys outnumbered Sells 124,365 to 109,691.
Update, 10:48am EDT, 6/23/05: The price is $0.50, with the Ask at $0.499, and the Bid at $0.485. Volume is 10K better at 131,591 shares.
Update, 10:40am EDT, 6/23/05: The price is $0.48, the Bid, which recently hit $0.475, and the Ask is $0.485, which was the Bid at yesterday's close. We look headed for the $0.44 region soon, and I suspect the bottom - probably within a week - will be in the $0.38 range once again. So much for my sad prediction of $1 by July. The volume is a pallid 121,091.
3 comments:
Yes, I saw that. Well, they do lie a lot. I was very tempted, as I said, to sell yesterday, but I think spiker's note changed my mind at the last second. I guess I can go to $0/37 or $0.38 if need be, but it's a pain. If it sunk to $0.28 again, I would certainly buy a truckload there, if I can raise the dough. Otherwise, I think I'll just stand pat. Of course, I could change my mind tomorrow! :)
No, mutwadadi had no details, and made clear it was just a rumor. What was interesting to me was that it started over there. With the Chinese going for Unocal, it sort of makes sense, though, that they would go for something like ERHC when it's so damnably cheap to buy.
Frankly, I was about to sell when I got spiker's note, and would have without it. I thought this note hadn't posted, I guess because it was beneath the Reuters story and I was looking for it above it. I apologize for the confusion. You did not lie in that case.
Best,
Joe
Joe Shea
Editor-in-Chief
The American Reporter
I'm still holding the 120,000 shares I've mentioned many times. I did say I was out, and was in the process of selling, but at the last minute I was dissuaded by a note from Spiker. I tried to clarify the confusion I created in a later Comment and in a post yesterday.
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