There's a fly in the ointment, however. The well-informed tipster Mutwadadi says dark clouds are gathering over the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone, and particularly over Block 4.
The word is, according to Mutwadadi, that Noble Energy may be forced out of Block 4, ceding operatorship to Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which with ExxonMobil has been the driving force behind an investigation headed by oil lawyer R. Dobie Langenkamp of the majors-heavy National Energy Environment Law & Policy Institute at the University of Tulsa, where neither ERHC nor Noble is represented. Frankly, we would be surprised to see Noble roll over for these guys.
There is no confirmation that may happen, however, and Noble Energy spokesman Greg Panagos could not be reached for comment.
Update, 10:22am EST, 10/28/2005: Telephone calls to Panagos went unanswered yesterday but with the help of an aide to Susan Cunningham (Sr VP, Exploration) we did speak to his secretary, Joan Pippington, who did not acknowledge the call we left for her yesterday but promised Panagos would return our call "as soon as possible." We lodged a complaint about the non-responsive press opffice with Noble Board Chairman Charles Davidson and Alan Bullingham, SR VP, International. None of these people except Cunningham were in their offices, and none would take the call or issue a denial. In the meantime, the highly respected moderator of Investor's Hub, Balance Builder, has posted a note on I-Hub saying that he has independently confirmed Mutwadadi's information. Therre has been no erosion in price since yesterday's close, however, and there is some feeling that Noble's departure may ultimately prove to be a good thing for ERHC Energy.
Below is Mutwadadi's note of a few minutes ago, verbatim:
joe
the noise here is that there are more clouds gathering over the jdz - particularly on block 4. to lose one us company might be regarded as unfortunate; to lose two looks like carelessness. it may in no way be erhc's fault, but the local politics leaves him with a number of enemies at present. the bottom line remains that erhc has its 25% option, but it could all be messy in the meantime...mutwa
We have to interpret the phrase "to lose one U.S. company" as the loss of Devon Energy, and "to lose two" to mean the loss of Noble.
A pullout by Noble Energy would force ERHC Energy to be a backseat observer of the process, but would also mean that it would have no financial obligation to help with the production costs, as Block 4 was bonus-free for ERHC. Anadarko has a slow-paced drilling plan that extends to just one well over the next three years, while Noble Energy had promised to sink three in the next three years, the first of which would be within one year of the PSC signing.
The ERHE price rise comes as investor-investigators close in on the identities of a group of sellers who have apparently used Internet postings by their members to drive the price down for the purpose of accumulation.
With names and facts now emerging and links being more strongly established, it at least appears that a group of South Florida manipulators are doing the dirty work and are being reported to the SEC.
What has changed is that solid links have been established between one Curtis Arnold, who is believed to be a poster named Mongo and has a history of SEC actions against him, a Palm Beach lawyer named Donald Mintmire who was charged criminally by the SEC earlier this year, and Noreen Wilson, a client of Mintmire's who is believed to be one of ERHC Energy's largest shareholders and who was a key figure in an investment group registered with the SEC several years ago.
As the facts of these relationships began to emerge yesterday, many investors on both the Investor's Hub and Raging Bull message boards acknowledged that so-called conspiracy theories which attempt to explain why the stock's price has fallen so dramatically sionceawards on May 31 may have real substance.
The "dark clouds" suggested by Mutwadadi may bring it all crashing down again, however; the price is remarkably now at $0.38 but has seen $0.33 in recent days. We do not have independent confirmation of Mutwadadi's comments yet.
Update, 2:59pm EST, 10/27/05: 115,000 shares have traded at the Biod since this note was posted, beginning immediately thereafter.
Update, 3:15pm EST, 10/27/05: We got a second note from Mutwadai in response to our reply, in which I asked for information on the investigation:
the investigation awaits response from nigeria to to sao tome's attorney-general for assistance. given that it took the a-g four months to get around to asking nigeria, there is nothing to suggest there needs to be any urgency on nigeria's part to reply.
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