As Awards Approach, A Sure Hand Is Needed At ERHE's Wheel

We're more wary than ever of rosy predictions about ERHC Energy (OTC BB symbol: ERHE), and we know that around every corner in the Nigerian press seems to lie a - well, a lie - or at least a well-placed strategic error.

Notwithstanding the country's journalistic failings and propensity for drama, though, we were unable to find even a single article in the 15 news outlets we watch daily that even touched on the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone (caveat: there are plenty of articles at those sites about the JDZ, but they are all outdated).

As far as ERHC On The Move is concerned, that lack of news is good news, indeed, because it leaves uncontradicted the March 22 JDZ press release that promises awards shortly after the April 9 deadline for ExxonMobil to exercise its JDZ rights, and also leaves as the latest news item the highly positive UpstreamOnline piece by Barry Morgan that tells the industry our "minnow" is in the very front of the pack to nab at least two operatorships and has a fairlty good shot at getting a third.

Even better, those operatorships appear to be in the best three blocks of the five on offer, Blcoks 2, 3 and 4. Should those three blocks be awarded to ERHC and its MoU partners Devon Energy, Pioneer Natural Resources and Noble Energy, a mid-April share price in the double digits is a real possibility. A share price of $3 or more is a virtual certainty with two, and a solid $0.50 - $0.60 rise is very likely with the award of just our basic rights in all five blocks.

And even those modest numbers will mean millions of dollars of profit for ERHC longs who have been hanging on to their shares - sometimes bought below a dime - for years.

Many of those longs will continue to hold onto their shares, as will all of those who aren't desperate to take profits from what has surely been a "heart attack" stock, as one recent correspondent called ERHC. The awards will transform us from a "minnow" to a major almost overnight.

That said, we must be more alert than ever this week and next for efforts to scare investors into selling shares that after awards will never again be so inexpensive. Our competitors will also be scrounging for any excuse to change what appears to be a very thrilling agenda for ERHC investors.

We do expect volatility along with gains because that has always been the nature of this stock and the nature of the oil bnusiness in Nigeria and Sao Tome.

There will be shocks, for sure, but a steady hand should steeer your tiller these two weeks: the ship is almost to port, and yes, there is treasure aboard.